上海交通大学凯原法学院教授、博导、原深圳市南山区人民法院庭长、原腾讯集团副总裁及副总法律顾 问江波围绕"从IP到商业落地：法律结构与风险控制"表示，IP跨界联名、衍生开发与商业化变现的加 速，往往伴随权利链条复杂化与合规风险上升。要实现长期价值，应在授权、合同、权利边界、收益分 配、侵权处理等环节建立可执行的法律结构，以"先设计、再增长"的逻辑降低试错成本。 江波特别指出，AI智能体系与内容生成正在带来新的法律挑战，行业需要对训练数据来源、生成内容 归属、平台责任与合规前提进行系统性反思。他提出多个关键问题与条件，强调AI产品合法合规运行 必须建立在明确的权利前提与治理机制之上，以规则稳定性支撑创新速度。 以下为发言摘录： 江波（上海交通大学凯原法学院教授、博导、原深圳市南山区人民法院庭长、原腾讯集团副总裁及副总 法律顾问）：各位领导，各位嘉宾，大家上午好！我想从合规与法律风险控制的角度，谈谈AI智能体 的发展趋势，以及它对版权与数据治理可能带来的结构性影响。我们正在经历一个变化：AI能力正在 从"应用内辅助工具"走向"系统级执行者"，从单点功能走向跨APP协同执行，这会直接改变流量路径与 数据使用路径。 在 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive performance of Japanese IPs in the Chinese market during the recent "Double 11" shopping festival, with significant sales figures indicating strong consumer demand and effective commercialization strategies [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance and Market Dynamics - Japanese IPs collectively generated approximately 5000 billion yen (about 225 billion RMB) in sales during the first half of the fiscal year 2025 (April to September) [5]. - The revenue structure resembles a pyramid, with Bandai Namco's "Mobile Suit Gundam" leading the top tier with 127.2 billion yen, marking a 66.3% increase [7][8]. - The "Sanrio family" achieved 87.6 billion yen in revenue, reflecting a 39.6% growth, while other major IPs like "Dragon Ball" and "One Piece" experienced declines of 14% and 5.1%, respectively [7][10]. Group 2: IP Growth and Challenges - The growth of "Gundam" and the Sanrio family contrasts sharply with the stagnation of older IPs, indicating varying operational strategies and content cycles [8][10]. - The decline in revenue for "Dragon Ball" and "One Piece" highlights the risks associated with over-reliance on a few top IPs, as they face challenges during content dry spells [10][20]. Group 3: Chinese Market Strategies - Sanrio's Chinese subsidiary reported a 96% increase in revenue, driven by a robust licensing ecosystem and local partnerships, with toys accounting for 31% of licensing income [21][30]. - Conversely, Tsuburaya's "Ultraman" IP saw a 44.2% drop in licensing revenue in China, attributed to inventory issues and changing consumer preferences [24][30]. - Kadokawa's strategy focuses on capital partnerships and a comprehensive industry chain approach, with significant investments aimed at enhancing IP circulation in the Chinese market [25][30]. Group 4: Future Directions - The article emphasizes the need for Japanese IP companies to deepen their integration into the Chinese cultural context and consumer ecosystem, moving beyond simple content output to collaborative value creation [30]. - Successful future strategies will involve understanding local consumer emotional needs and establishing deeper partnerships that go beyond basic licensing agreements [30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The recovery of the supply side is driving industry growth, with content channels expected to contribute to growth [2][3] - The company has a comprehensive layout in the film industry chain, and the new management team is expected to empower a new growth phase [3][5] - The film industry is anticipated to enter a prosperous period starting in 2025, driven by an increase in domestic film quality and technological advancements [3][5] Company Overview - The company was established in 2005 and has developed a global layout in cinema and film investment. It faced challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and mergers and acquisitions, entering a low point from 2020 to 2022. However, it has seen a recovery in revenue and profit in 2023 [3][11] - The company’s revenue and profit are significantly influenced by the box office market cycle, with rapid growth from 2011 to 2019, followed by volatility from 2020 to 2022, and a strong recovery in 2023 [3][19] Industry Analysis - The film box office in 2024 is expected to decline by 22% year-on-year due to a lack of new films. However, the number of film registrations has been increasing since 2023, and 2025 is expected to be a significant year for domestic films [3][39] - The high operating leverage in the cinema industry means that companies are particularly affected by box office fluctuations, with poor performance expected in 2024 due to a lack of compelling new releases [3][42] Business Introduction - The cinema business is the main source of revenue for the company, maintaining a market share of 17.5% in 2024, the highest in the country. The revenue from cinema operations has ranged between 5 to 9 billion [4] - The content production business has fluctuating revenue between 400 to 800 million, while the gaming distribution business generates 300 to 450 million with a gross margin of 50% to 60% [4] Growth Analysis - The new controlling shareholder, China Ruyi, is expected to help the company enter a new expansion phase after distancing itself from the negative impacts of the Wanda Group's real estate business [5][6] - The release of high-quality domestic films is expected to continue driving industry recovery, with AI technology potentially enhancing content production efficiency [5][6] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to see steady growth in its cinema segment and profit potential in its content segment, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating. The target price is set between 15.2 to 15.9 yuan, indicating a growth potential of 30% to 40% [6]