IPO超级周期
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观点丨2026年或将成为疯狂上市之年?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 08:18
Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a significant year for IPOs, particularly for major tech companies like Anthropologie, OpenAI, and SpaceX, marking a potential milestone for Silicon Valley and the AI boom [2]. Group 1: Upcoming IPOs - Anthropologie and OpenAI are reportedly taking initial steps towards going public, while SpaceX has engaged with multiple banks to discuss its IPO plans [2][3]. - If any of these private companies go public, they could rank among the most valuable companies globally, with valuations of $350 billion for Anthropologie, $500 billion for OpenAI, and $800 billion for SpaceX [2]. - Morgan Stanley's Eddie Molloy suggests that the upcoming IPOs could lead to an unprecedented scale of transactions in the market [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The U.S. IPO market has been sluggish since 2021, with only 202 companies going public last year, raising $44 billion compared to 397 companies and $142 billion in 2021 [4]. - The potential IPOs from these tech giants may encourage other companies to follow suit, including those in AI hardware and cryptocurrency sectors [4]. - Investors believe that these IPOs could provide detailed financial information, helping to address concerns about an AI bubble [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - OpenAI has raised over $60 billion, breaking private funding records, and reported revenues of $13 billion last year, with expectations to triple this year [5]. - Anthropic has raised at least $40 billion and is negotiating to raise an additional $10 billion, with projected monthly revenues of $8 billion to $10 billion [5]. - OpenAI plans to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029, indicating a significant need for capital to support its operations [5]. Group 4: Wealth Creation and Market Dynamics - The rapid growth of AI companies is changing employee expectations, with many engineers now anticipating returns on their stock options within two to three years [6]. - The IPOs of OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic could create over 16,000 millionaires, further fueling the wealth cycle in Silicon Valley [6].