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Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold AppLovin Stock Before Q1 Earnings?
ZACKS· 2025-05-05 13:00
Core Viewpoint - AppLovin Corporation (APP) is expected to report strong year-over-year growth in earnings and revenues for Q1 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.45, reflecting a 116.4% increase, and revenues projected at $1.38 billion, indicating a 30.2% growth from the previous year [1][12]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for Software Platform revenues is $1.05 billion, suggesting a 54.3% year-over-year growth, while Apps revenues are expected to decline by 12.7% to $331.7 million [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the Software Platform is estimated at $829.4 million, indicating a 68.6% year-over-year growth, whereas APP's overall adjusted EBITDA is expected to decrease by 16.8% [9]. - In the fourth quarter of 2024, APP reported a 44% year-over-year revenue increase and a 78% year-over-year rise in adjusted EBITDA, showcasing strong operational efficiency [11]. Market Position and Growth - APP's stock has increased by 300% over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader industry, which gained 27% [10]. - The company has a strong earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all trailing four quarters with an average surprise of 23.5% [3][4]. Strategic Focus - AppLovin continues to leverage its AXON 2.0 technology and expand within the gaming and in-app advertising sectors, positioning itself for sustained growth [11][13]. - Management has guided for $1.4 billion in sales for Q1 2025, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.37 billion, indicating confidence in continued performance [12]. Investment Outlook - Despite the strong growth trajectory, the absence of a positive Earnings ESP and potential volatility in App revenues suggest a cautious approach for investors [16]. - The company’s consistent earnings beats and leadership in mobile advertising make it an attractive long-term investment option [15][16].