Economic Sentiment and Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence is showing slight improvement, with inflation expectations decreasing compared to previous readings [1][2] - Although overall sentiment has increased, it remains at historically low levels [2] - Consumers are feeling some relief regarding inflation but are still cautious about the economy [3] Spending Behavior and Economic Conditions - Historically, consumer confidence correlates with spending; when confidence is low, spending tends to decrease [5] - In 2022, despite low confidence, consumers were willing to spend due to strong labor markets and income stability [5] - Currently, consumers report weakening labor markets, leading to less willingness to spend, particularly among middle and lower-income groups [6][8] Income Distribution and Spending Patterns - High-income consumers with stable incomes and significant stock portfolios are more likely to continue spending [8] - Consumers with smaller portfolios or job insecurity are more cautious and focused on value when making spending decisions [8] - The distribution of income and wealth is highly skewed, with high-income individuals contributing significantly to aggregate spending [9][10]

来源：华泰睿思 核心观点 2025年上半年美国就业市场快速走弱，叠加AI在美国渗透加速，AI被认为是就业市场走弱的重要因素。我们的研究显示，AI对部分行业/群体产生冲击， 但还不是驱动就业放缓的主要因素，关税、驱逐移民、DOGE等是主要的因素。往前看，我们认为美国就业市场在三季度仍维持偏弱格局，或为联储9月 再次降息创造条件；但四季度企业雇佣意愿改善或带来一定修复。但毋庸置疑的是，AI的快速渗透将对就业市场、宏观走势、产业格局、收入分配等产 生深远的影响。 一、2季度美国非农大幅下调，但AI对劳工的替代效益尚不显著 2025年4月以来，美国就业明显放缓，而AI被认为可能是背后的重要原因。年轻群体、研究生学历群体近期失业率上行较为明显，此外企业内部中层管理 人员面临的裁员压力相对更大。由于2025年AI在美国渗透加速，而AI对初级软件工程岗位的替代性更强，且可以更好处理日常任务，从而减少对中层管 理人员的需求，AI被认为可能是就业放缓的重要原因。 我们认为，AI或对部分行业/群体就业带来冲击，但目前还不是就业放缓的最重要原因。2022年11月ChatGPT公布后，少数几个对AI敞口高的行业非农就 业在2024- ...