The S&P 500 goes up:53% of days62% of months74% of years94% of decadesThe longer you hold, the more the math favors you. Full stop. ...

Core Viewpoint - Index investors and Bogleheads may prefer S&P 500 for diversification over sector ETFs [1] Group 1 - Sector ETFs may not be favored by index investors [1] - Vanguard ETFs are popular among Bogleheads [1] - S&P 500 is seen as sufficient for diversification needs [1]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index funds are designed to replicate the performance and composition of the S&P 500 index, which includes 500 of the largest U.S. companies, making them a popular choice for investors seeking market exposure [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Characteristics - S&P 500 index funds are passively managed, meaning they do not have a fund manager actively selecting stocks; adjustments occur only when the underlying index changes [3][4]. - The average total return of the S&P 500 index has been approximately 10% annually since 1960, with over 6% annual returns when adjusted for inflation [6]. - These funds typically have low expense ratios, often below 0.10%, which translates to minimal costs for investors [7][9]. Group 2: Fund Selection Criteria - When selecting an S&P 500 index fund, investors should prioritize funds with the lowest expense ratios, as all funds fundamentally invest in the same stocks [7][9]. - Key factors to consider include the expense ratio, potential sales loads for mutual funds, and tax efficiency, particularly when investing in taxable brokerage accounts [8][21]. - A comparison of several S&P 500 index funds shows that some, like the Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund, have an expense ratio of 0% and a 5-year annualized return of 13.69% [9]. Group 3: Investment Process - Investors can easily set up accounts to invest in S&P 500 index funds, with options for automatic contributions to simplify the investment process [2][11]. - The investment process involves selecting a fund, funding a brokerage account, and placing orders to buy shares, which can often be automated [10][13][14]. - Regular contributions and a long-term investment horizon are recommended to maximize returns and mitigate risks [12][16]. Group 4: Limitations and Alternatives - S&P 500 index funds are limited to large-cap companies, which means they do not provide exposure to small-cap or mid-cap stocks, bonds, or real estate [18][19]. - For broader market exposure, investors may consider total stock market index funds or target-date funds, which include a wider range of asset classes [19][24]. - While S&P 500 index funds are a solid investment choice, diversification across different asset classes is generally advised for a balanced portfolio [23][24].

Core Insights - 2025 was characterized by significant volatility in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index experiencing both sharp declines and recoveries, ultimately ending the year up nearly 20% with dividends reinvested [3][8] - Nvidia, a leading player in AI, had a modest gain of around 41%, while SanDisk emerged as the top performer with a nearly 600% increase since its IPO [3][8] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) demonstrated the effectiveness of passive investment strategies, returning 19% in 2025 despite market fluctuations [5][8] Market Performance - The year began positively, extending the previous bull market, but was marked by early volatility due to economic concerns [6] - A significant market reaction occurred in April following President Trump's tariff announcements, leading to a 12% drop in the S&P 500, which was the worst short-term loss since the 2020 pandemic [7] - The index recovered quickly after tariffs were paused for most countries, turning positive by mid-May and fully reclaiming losses by late June [7][8] Investment Strategy - The hands-off approach of index investing allowed investors to capture market gains without the need for constant decision-making, reinforcing its status as a preferred strategy for most [5][8] - The volatility experienced throughout the year highlighted the challenges of timing the market, as panic selling and chasing winners can lead to missed opportunities [4][8]

Core Insights - The current stock-picking environment is perceived as less favorable for generating alpha compared to the past 40 years [1] - The founder of Sungarden Investment Publishing emphasizes a non-traditional approach to income investing and community engagement through the Sungarden Investors Club [1] - The importance of understanding market narratives is highlighted, suggesting that investors need to be attentive to market signals [1] Group 1 - The investment landscape has changed significantly over the last four decades, impacting stock-picking strategies [1] - The founder has extensive experience in investment advising and fund management, transitioning to focus on community-based investment education [1] - The investment group aims to help members navigate the modern investment climate with a disciplined approach [1]

Core Insights - Walmart's stock has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over the past five years, with a total return of 131.4% compared to the S&P 500's 101.6% [2][3] Performance Comparison - Over the last five years, Walmart's stock price increased by 117.3%, surpassing the S&P 500's increase of 87.5% [2] - Including dividends, Walmart's total return was 131.4%, which is 29.8 percentage points higher than the S&P 500's return [3] Key Financial Metrics - Walmart's current market capitalization stands at $881 billion [5] - The stock's current price is $110.53, with a dividend yield of 0.83% [4][5] - Walmart has maintained a gross margin of 25.87% [5] Business Strategy and Market Position - Walmart's strategy of operating an ultra-low-cost business model positions it strongly in the competitive retail market [6] - The company has shown resilience, continuing to thrive even as other retailers struggle due to economic pressures [6] Sales Performance - In the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. reported a same-store sales increase of 4.5%, driven by higher customer traffic and spending [7] Investment in Future Growth - Walmart is investing heavily in improving customer shopping experiences, focusing on supply chain enhancements and technology [8] - The combination of strong current performance and future investments positions Walmart for continued success and market-beating returns [9]

Core Message - The main message emphasizes the importance of saving and investing 10-15% of income over a long period to achieve financial well-being [1][3][13] Group 1: Wealth Building Strategies - The concept of "pay yourself first" encourages individuals to automatically allocate 10-15% of their income to investments as soon as they receive their paycheck [3][4] - Regular investment in diversified portfolios, such as asset allocation ETFs, is recommended to simplify the investment process and reduce the need for extensive market knowledge [4][5] - A global portfolio example shows a $650 monthly investment yielding an average annual return of 8.0%, highlighting the effectiveness of consistent investing [7] Group 2: Key Considerations for Investors - The Wealthy Barber books provide actionable insights and storytelling aimed at younger Canadians or those starting their wealth-building journey [9] - Important investment strategies include utilizing RRSPs for tax benefits, taking advantage of employer-sponsored plans, and considering home ownership within a budget [13] - Additional financial tips include budgeting, finding ways to cut expenses, and exploring extra income opportunities [13]

ETF Market Overview - ETF flows are over $980 billion year to date [1] - The industry is tracking moves above and below the 30-day moving averages for popular index funds like SPY and QQQ [1] Top ETF Inflows - Top inflow this week was the IBIT, the Eyesshares Bitcoin ETF [1] - Followed by the VXUS, the Vanguard Total International ETF, which holds stocks outside of the US [1] - Also the DIA, the Spider Dow Jones ETF [1] Crypto ETF Analysis - Hashtex advocates for its NASDAQ crypto index ETF (NCIQ) for diversified crypto exposure [2] - NCIQ aims to represent the crypto market as a whole, including Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, and other assets [2] - Index investing in crypto is considered a significant trend due to the difficulty in picking individual winners [2] - Since its expansion in September, NCIQ has outperformed Ether but underperformed Bitcoin [3]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) is characterized as a "boring" investment that consistently outperforms more active strategies by providing broad exposure to the U.S. stock market with minimal costs [2][3][12] - The fund has achieved a 12% year-to-date return, outperforming approximately 90% of actively managed large-cap funds over the past decade, highlighting the effectiveness of index investing [3][12] - The fund's expense ratio is only 0.03%, making it significantly cheaper than the average actively managed fund, which charges between 0.5% to 1% [9][10] Fund Composition - The ETF's portfolio includes 3,524 holdings, with major companies like Nvidia (6.49%), Microsoft (6.05%), and Apple (5.57%) making up a significant portion of the assets [6][12] - The fund's structure allows for natural diversification across various sectors and company sizes, which helps mitigate risks associated with large-cap stocks [7][12] - The low annual turnover rate of 2% minimizes transaction costs while keeping the portfolio aligned with market changes [7] Investment Strategy - The fund does not aim to beat the market but rather mirrors it, which eliminates the risk of underperformance [11][12] - Its U.S.-only focus simplifies investment decisions and avoids currency risks associated with international investments [11][12] - The fund's design acts as a behavioral defense mechanism, discouraging excessive trading and performance chasing by investors [12][13] Long-term Outlook - For investors looking for a core U.S. equity holding, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is presented as an exceptional choice due to its simplicity, low cost, and comprehensive market coverage [13] - The fund is expected to outperform most alternatives over the long term precisely because it does not attempt to be special, emphasizing the value of a passive investment strategy [13]

Investment Insights - Rob Arnott is a pioneer in index investing products, highlighting flaws in mainstream indexes like the S&P 500 that can negatively impact investors [5] - Arnott introduced alternative index strategies in the early 2000s, launching the Fundamental Index in 2005, which has influenced major firms like BlackRock and PIMCO to adopt Research Affiliates' indexes [6] - The recent launch of the Research Affiliates Deletions ETF (NIXT) focuses on fundamentally attractive stocks that have been removed from the S&P 500 [7] - The newly released Research Affiliates Cap-Weighted US ETF (RAUS) employs a cap-weighted approach to indexing after a fundamentals-based selection process, aiming to address inefficiencies in current index selection and removal processes [8]