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恒生指数再平衡回顾及资金流向影响(2025 年 9 月)-Asia Index Strategy_ Hang Seng Indexes Rebalancing Review and Flow Implications (Sep 2025)
2025-08-24 14:47
Summary of Hang Seng Indexes Rebalancing Review and Flow Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Hang Seng Indexes, specifically the Hang Seng Index (HSI), Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI), Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH), and Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Constituent Changes - Pop Mart (9992.HK), China Telecom (728.HK), and JD Logistics (2618.HK) will be added to the HSI, increasing the total number of constituents from 85 to 88 [2]. - Pop Mart will replace J&T Global Express (1519.HK) in the HSCEI [2]. - No changes were made to the HSTECH [2]. - A total of 24 stocks were added and 22 removed from the HSCI [2]. Index Weight Adjustments - The weights of the HSI, HSCEI, and HSTECH will be adjusted by 2.5%, 2.9%, and 5.7% respectively after rebalancing [2]. - The proforma index cap is expected to rise to US$2,090 billion for HSI (+1.6%), US$1,420 billion for HSCEI (+1.1%), and US$480 billion for HSTECH (+9%) [3]. Valuation Changes - The forward 12M P/E ratios and EPS growth rates are projected to change as follows: - HSI: from 11.3x to 11.4x and EPS growth from 5.4% to 5.7% - HSCEI: from 10.7x to 10.8x and EPS growth from 6.3% to 6.6% - HSTECH: from 17.6x to 18.0x and EPS growth from 17.5% to 16.8% [3]. Passive AUM Tracking - Passive AUM tracking the Hang Seng Family of Indexes reached nearly US$90 billion, accounting for approximately 3% of the Hang Seng Composite Index free float [3]. Sector Implications - Consumer Retail, Software & Services, and Autos are expected to see the largest passive inflows, estimated between US$300 million to US$780 million [4]. - Conversely, Internet/Media & Entertainment, Tech Hardware & Semis, and Banks may experience outflows ranging from -US$270 million to -US$950 million [4]. Stock Implications - The top six stocks expected to see the largest passive net buying flows include: - Horizon Robotics, Pop Mart, BYD, Meituan, Xiaomi, and Alibaba, with potential inflows ranging from US$185 million to US$610 million [4]. - Stocks anticipated to face the largest outflows include Tencent, SMIC, Kuaishou, and JD, with outflows ranging from -US$150 million to -US$550 million [4][9]. Historical Performance Patterns - Current additions to the HSCEI and HSCI have outperformed typical past patterns pre-announcement, while the HSI has shown less volatility [9]. - Historical performance tends to reverse after the first day following the announcement for HSI, while HSTECH stabilizes and HSCEI shows volatility [9]. Southbound Implications - Changes in HSCI constituents typically affect Southbound (SB) eligibility, with historical ownership rising by 1 percentage point within two days after inclusion becomes effective [10]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes that investors should consider this analysis as one of many factors in their investment decisions [7]. - The report includes detailed data on potential passive flows, trading patterns, and sector weight changes, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics post-rebalancing [15].
Trade Desk's stock jumps on S&P 500 inclusion as Ansys exits index due to acquisition
CNBC· 2025-07-14 21:58
Group 1 - The Trade Desk's shares increased by 14% in extended trading due to its upcoming inclusion in the S&P 500 index [1][4] - The Trade Desk will replace Ansys in the S&P 500 as part of a corporate acquisition process involving Synopsys, which is finalizing a $35 billion acquisition of Ansys [2][3] - The Trade Desk's market cap is approximately $37 billion, positioning it in the middle range of the S&P 500 by valuation [4] Group 2 - The Trade Desk has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, down 36% in 2025, following a 63% increase in 2022 and a 61% increase in 2023 [3][4] - The company was founded in 2009 and went public in 2016, currently employing over 3,522 individuals [4] - The Trade Desk competes with major companies such as Amazon and Google in the digital advertising space [4]