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摩根士丹利:美国再工业化的火焰已被点燃,迎来万亿美元机遇
摩根· 2025-04-06 14:35
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Attractive" rating to the US Multi-Industry sector, indicating a positive outlook for investments in this area [6]. Core Insights - The US is entering a phase of re-industrialization, presenting a multi-decade opportunity estimated at $10 trillion, which aims to restore growth to the US industrial economy after over 20 years of stagnation [2][10]. - The reshoring trend is driven by structural technological advancements and a renewed focus on operational resilience following the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain disruptions [2][10]. - Since 2000, the US has lost 9 percentage points of global manufacturing share, equating to approximately $1.5 trillion in annual output, leading to a significant trade deficit [2][19]. - Recent trends show a resurgence in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the US, with manufacturing construction surging by around 300% since 2020, stabilizing at three times pre-COVID levels [2][3][10]. Summary by Sections Reshoring Opportunity - The reshoring process is expected to shift activity and spending back to the US, benefiting US industrial equities and enhancing earnings and cash flow streams [12][10]. - The report quantifies the opportunity for approximately $6 trillion in incremental US manufacturing capital expenditure [12][13]. Historical Context - The report highlights that US manufacturing has faced under-investment for 25 years, with a significant decline in fixed asset investment since China joined the WTO in 2000 [4][21]. - The US trade deficit has been exacerbated by outsourcing, which has not yielded a net positive impact on the US economy [31]. Future Projections - The report projects that to regain a 20% share of global manufacturing by 2050, US manufacturing output must grow at a 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), a significant acceleration from the previous 25-year average [64][68]. - Achieving this growth will require an increase in the US manufacturing fixed asset base by over $4 trillion in real terms [68]. Key Beneficiaries - Preferred stocks in the reshoring theme include ETN and ROK, with other beneficiaries identified as HUBB, TT, FAST, and EMR [2][12].