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Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rindels@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 The Risks to US Inflation from the War with Iran 23 March 2026 | 5:22PM CDT Economics Research US ECONOMICS ANALYST n Our commodities strategists now expect Brent oil pric ...

Inflation Expectations - Firms' year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1% in March, up from 1.9% in February but down from 2.5% in March 2025 [1][2] - Long-run unit cost expectations increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%, compared to the last survey in December 2025 [3] Cost and Profit Margins - Year-ahead unit cost expectations have decreased from a peak of 3.8% in April 2022 but remain elevated compared to the pre-pandemic average of 2.0% [3] - Sales levels and profit margins "compared to normal" have decreased, while year-over-year unit cost growth remained constant at 2.0% [4] Consumer Inflation Expectations - The Cleveland Fed reported that business leaders expect inflation to be 3.1% over the next 12 months, down from 3.3% in October 2025 [8] - Consumers' median inflation expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0% at the one-year horizon, remaining steady at 3.0% for three and five-year horizons [11]

South Africa’s two-year inflation expectations moderated marginally, welcome news for the central bank https://t.co/ryGJaDiZ6w ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin @AllisonSchrager @foxjust “As you’ve seen this big spike in WTI futures as a result of the conflict in Iran … you’ve seen one-year market-based inflation expectations really take quite a step up,” @JonathanJLevin says.Watch LIVE here: https://t.co/dNJ1oR8R1L ...

Americans’ inflation expectations remained mostly unchanged, while expectations about leaving their job voluntarily dropped to a record low, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey. https://t.co/V7lPIWiOcY ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has set a gold price target of $5,400 per ounce by 2026, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the gold market, which could impact investors in gold-related ETFs like DUST [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold miners have experienced significant gains, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 18.2% year-to-date and 146.84% over the past year [1]. - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has also seen a year-to-date increase of 19.48% and a 76.52% rise over the past year, reflecting strong demand for gold [1]. Group 2: DUST ETF Dynamics - Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (DUST) is designed to deliver twice the inverse of GDX's daily return, making it a tactical instrument for short-term traders [1]. - DUST gained 27.34% last week in response to a 12.48% drop in GDX, demonstrating its intended leverage effect [1]. - Despite recent gains, DUST has fallen 89.63% over the past year due to volatility decay, which erodes value in trending markets [1]. Group 3: Macro Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Central bank demand, de-dollarization trends, and persistent inflation expectations are identified as structural drivers supporting the bullish case for gold [1]. - Historical sensitivity of gold prices to Federal Reserve rate decisions and U.S. Consumer Price Index data suggests that tighter monetary policy could lead to gold price weakness [1].

GIVEN WHAT WE SEE IN THE MARKETS, PERHAPS THIS MARKET COULD BE LONGER THAN WE THINK. DURATION IS THE KEY. IF THIS WERE TO GO ON FOR WEEKS AND MONTHS, THEN IT REPRESENTS A BIG MAC OR SHOCK.THE KEY CONSTRAINT IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THE BINDING CONSTRAINT WILL BE STORAGE FACILITIES IN EACH OF THESE OUTLYING PRODUCERS. IT IS WITH THE STORAGE CONSTRAINT THAT PRODUCTION BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN AND WHEN PRODUCTION SHUTS DOWN, YOU HAVE A HIGHER IMPACT OF HIGHER PRICES. WE SHOULD NOT FORGET THAT BEFORE THE CONFLICT START ...

Core Insights - Home equity rates have become more affordable, with the $30,000 home equity line of credit decreasing to 7.18%, the lowest in over three years [1] - The five-year $30,000 home equity loan also saw a decline, dropping to 7.84% [1] Group 1: Current Rates - The current average rates for home equity products are as follows: HELOC at 7.18%, five-year home equity loan at 7.84%, ten-year home equity loan at 8.04%, and fifteen-year home equity loan at 8.00% [2] - Compared to four weeks ago, HELOC rates decreased by 13 basis points, and the five-year home equity loan fell by 6 basis points [2] Group 2: Market Drivers - Home equity rates are primarily influenced by Federal Reserve policy and long-term inflation expectations [3] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, monitoring inflation and the job market, with forecasts indicating potential rate cuts in 2026 [3] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - HELOCs and home equity loans are significantly cheaper than unsecured credit options, such as credit cards (average rate of 19.58%) and personal loans (average rate of 12.26%) [5] - The affordability of home equity products is beneficial for consumers looking to consolidate loans and secure lower rates, which is favorable for home equity lenders [2][4]

I THINK IT'S TOO EARLY TO REJECT THE NOTION THAT THAT TREND IS ON ONE PRINT. LISA: ARE YOU CONCERNED THE MARKET IS MOVING THE WAY ANY RATE CUT WOULD BE PERCEIVED AS HEIGHTENING LONG-TERM INFLATION PRESSURES BY VIRTUE OF SUPPLY SHOCKS WE ARE SEEING AND THE FACT PEOPLE DO SEE STRENGTH REEMERGING IN CERTAIN POCKETS OF THE ECONOMY. HOW WORRIED ARE YOU THAT A RATE CUT IN MARCH COULD BE POTENTIALLY COUNTERPRODUCTIVE AND BECAUSE THE LONG END OF THE YIELD CURVE TO RISE.STEPHEN: IF YOU SAW EVIDENCE AND INFLATION MAR ...