First, as Dever noted, inflation is a hidden risk. Most investors learn the common wisdom of investing in growth-oriented assets during their working life and more conservative, income-oriented assets once they retire. This is a strategy built around protecting your nest egg in your retirement years.There are two big risks despite this well-funded retirement account, but a financial advisor can help you prepare for both of them.“The 4% withdrawal rule can be a useful starting point,” said Bryan Cannon, auth ...

随着主要发达市场国债收益率走高，投资者正重新评估通胀风险及特朗普及贸易战背景下的全球增长前景。这表明，去年启动的、曾推动全球股 市创下历史新高的宽松周期可能正步入尾声，市场焦点已转向各国激增的公共债务和更为顽固的通胀压力。 全球长债收益率已重返2009年以来最高水平，这一显著转变标志着市场对各国央行放松货币政策周期即将终结的共识日益增强。 在美联储备受瞩目的政策会议召开前几小时，债市并未如期上涨。尽管市场普遍预计美联储将连续第三次降息，但投资者正基于对长期通胀、财 政赤字及未来货币政策独立性的担忧抛售债券，推动30年期美债收益率重回多月高位，10年期美债收益率亦徘徊在9月以来的最高水平。 市场的重新定价已波及全球，交易员目前押注欧洲央行几乎不再有降息空间，同时预计日本央行本月加息几成定局，澳大利亚央行明年将加息两 次。据彭博数据显示，衡量全球长期政府债券的一项指标已回升至16年高点，澳大利亚和欧洲多国的长债收益率近期均大幅飙升。 "失望交易"在全球蔓延 随着投资者逐渐意识到各大央行的降息周期可能即将结束，一场"失望交易"（disappointment trade）正在多个发达市场展开。PGIM Fixed I ...

By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday the U.​S. central bank needs to "proceed slowly" ‌with any further interest rate cuts as it eases policy towards a level ‌that would likely stop putting downward pressure on inflation. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Kansas City Fed event, Jefferson said he agreed the central bank's quarter-percentage-point rate cut last ⁠month was appropriate, ‌given increased risks to the job market and the likeli ...

Group 1 - Optimism regarding a potential US-China trade deal is leading investors to sell Treasuries, resulting in decreased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] - Yields on 10-year US government bonds increased by four basis points to 4.04%, the highest level in over a week, following agreements on tariffs and export controls between the US and China [2] - The selloff in Treasuries is occurring at a critical time as markets anticipate central bank policy decisions and the outcome of a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping [3] Group 2 - Investor sentiment will be further assessed through upcoming two- and five-year Treasury sales [4] - Concerns over inflation risks are growing as tariffs begin to impact the economy, despite soft CPI data and worries in sectors like housing and private credit [4] - A proxy for term premium on US 10-year debt rose by one basis point to 66 basis points, indicating a slight increase in perceived future risk [5]

Economic Outlook - Governments are facing potential financial distress [1] - Long-term debt is threatened by the risk of inflation [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Commodities - **Key Focus**: Oil and Natural Gas Markets, Commodities Price Forecasts Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Demand Growth**: Global oil demand expanded by 520 thousand barrels per day (kbd) year-over-year in September, with visible global liquids stocks rising by 72 million barrels (mb) [2] 2. **Ukraine's Strategic Shift**: Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, indicating a strategic shift that could impact global energy markets [1] 3. **Fed's Rate-Cutting Cycle**: The Federal Reserve's cutting cycle began, historically leading to positive returns in commodities. Commodities averaged +15% returns nine months after similar cycles in 1995 and 2024 [5] 4. **Recession Risks**: Recession risks are elevated at 40%, with potential negative impacts on commodities if offsetting Chinese stimulus is not present [5] 5. **Inflation Concerns**: The risk of renewed inflation is high at 45%, particularly in the US, which may affect commodity prices [5] 6. **Natural Gas Storage Trends**: Weekly storage injections for natural gas are expected to be in the range of 70-90 Bcf through mid-October, with a preliminary estimate of a 73 Bcf injection for the upcoming report [9] 7. **Base vs. Precious Metals Performance**: There is a notable divergence in performance between base and precious metals following the first rate cut, with precious metals generally performing better [9] 8. **US Crude Output Resilience**: US crude output has remained resilient, averaging close to 300 kbd year-over-year from January to August 2025, with no significant pullback in operator activity [12] 9. **Permian Basin Activity**: Permitting data shows no signs of a slowdown in activity in the Permian Basin, with permit volumes 6% higher than the previous year [12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Global Commodity Open Interest**: The estimated value of global commodity market open interest surged to a 2025 year-to-date high, increasing by 4.1% week-over-week to $1.59 trillion [11] 2. **Natural Gas Market Dynamics**: Solar energy generation is significantly impacting realized and forecast gas-fired power generation, especially during the shoulder season [9] 3. **Metals Market Trends**: Industrial metals are lagging behind precious metals, with base metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel consistently underperforming compared to copper [9] 4. **Price Forecasts**: Forecasts for WTI crude and Brent crude prices are projected to decline to $57 and $61 per barrel respectively by Q4 2025 [13] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global commodities market.

Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to further boost gold prices, which have already surpassed the $3,700 mark, with potential for new record highs depending on future rate cut aggressiveness [1]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Political pressure is increasing for deeper rate cuts, which could lead to lower real interest rates in an inflationary environment, historically favorable for gold [2]. - Inflation risks are heightened due to tariffs, which are expected to raise the cost of goods, thereby increasing demand for gold as a hedge against purchasing power erosion [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Gold - Sprott offers two main investment vehicles for gaining exposure to gold: the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) and the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) [4]. - PHYS provides a straightforward way to invest in gold without the logistical challenges of physical storage, allowing for easy trading and conversion to physical bullion [5]. - SGDM offers indirect exposure to gold through mining companies, benefiting from rising gold prices and providing broad-based exposure to mitigate risks associated with individual stocks [6][7].

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The document pertains to the North American economic outlook, specifically focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions. Core Insights and Arguments - **Rate Cut Expectations**: The FOMC is anticipated to implement a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut at the upcoming meeting, marking the beginning of a series of quarterly "insurance cuts" [5][9][30] - **Cautious Approach to Inflation**: Despite the expected rate cuts, core FOMC members are likely to adopt a cautious stance regarding inflation risks, indicating a gradual approach to easing [5][30] - **Economic Projections**: The median unemployment rate projection for 2025 is expected to remain at 4.5%, with GDP estimates showing a modest upward revision to 1.6% from 1.4% [11][25] - **Dissenting Opinions**: There are expected to be four dissents regarding the decision to cut rates, with some members advocating for a larger 50 bp cut due to recent labor market data [9][28][30] Important but Potentially Overlooked Details - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Despite a slowdown in the labor market, layoffs have remained low, and the unemployment rate has only gradually increased, suggesting that officials may not react strongly to weak non-farm payroll (NFP) data as long as unemployment remains contained [13][18] - **Inflation Risks**: The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast for 2025 is expected to hold steady at 3.1%, but there are concerns about persistent inflation pressures, particularly in labor-intensive services [19][27] - **Long-Term Projections**: The 2026 median dot is likely to decline to 3.375%, reflecting expectations for additional rate cuts in the following year [7][10] - **Market Reactions**: The markets have priced in aggressive easing in response to disappointing labor data, but the FOMC's cautious approach may temper expectations for rapid rate reductions [5][30] Conclusion - The FOMC's upcoming meeting is set against a backdrop of a slowing labor market and inflation concerns, leading to a cautious yet proactive monetary policy stance. The anticipated rate cut is seen as a necessary measure to manage economic risks while maintaining a focus on inflation and employment stability.

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with most economists anticipating one further cut next quarter due to labor market softness overshadowing inflation risks [1][2] - Markets have fully priced in a September cut and now expect three reductions this year, up from two just weeks ago, indicating a shift in economic outlook [2] - A significant majority of economists predict a 25 basis point cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first reduction of the year [2][3] Group 2 - Economists have noted a persistent slowdown in labor demand, suggesting that the Fed should ease policy to support the labor market despite current inflation levels [3] - There is potential for dissent among Fed board members regarding the size of the rate cut, with some analysts suggesting a larger cut or holding rates steady [4][5] - A majority of economists expect a 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025, with a notable increase in those predicting 75 basis points cuts by year-end [5] Group 3 - Over 60% of economists believe that surging inflation or a combination of inflation with rising unemployment is more likely in the coming year [6]

Group 1 - The article lacks specific content regarding the Federal Reserve or any financial analysis [1][2][4] - There is no detailed information on market trends, economic indicators, or investment opportunities [1][2][3] - The author’s background in journalism and finance is noted, but it does not provide insights into current market conditions or company performance [3][4]