Yadin Eldar, 21, has been betting on prediction markets since 2019. His friends think he’s “crazy”, he said. But the craze surrounding these platforms is rapidly gathering steam.Users can bet on virtually anything, from the outcome of Sunday’s Super Bowl to whether the US will invade Greenland, every second of every day.Hundreds of millions of dollars are now wagered each week, generating odds that users promptly screenshot, post and meme far and wide, from social media feeds to mainstream news networks.Pol ...

Core Insights - Kalshi has implemented tighter trading surveillance measures ahead of the Super Bowl, including an independent oversight committee and partnerships with new data providers to ensure market integrity [1][4] - The Super Bowl is projected to generate a record $1.76 billion in legal wagers in the US, with Kalshi holding over 50% of the regulated market share [2][7] - The prediction market industry is experiencing rapid growth, with sports betting now accounting for approximately 70% of total prediction market volume, and aggregate volumes expected to reach $40 billion by 2026 [6] Company Developments - Kalshi has seen nearly $170 million in bets for the Super Bowl, raising concerns about the potential for insider trading due to the high volume of transactions [1][3] - To combat insider trading risks, Kalshi has partnered with Solidus Labs to utilize their "HALO" system for monitoring market manipulation [4] - An advisory committee, including experts from Wharton, will publish statistics on investigations to enhance transparency and oversight [4] Industry Context - The competition in the prediction market space is intensifying, with Polymarket leading the offshore market with nearly $4 billion in monthly activity [2][7] - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, with some states moving to restrict access to certain prediction market products, impacting platforms like Polymarket [5]

Core Viewpoint - Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour emphasizes the importance of preventing insider trading in prediction markets, arguing that it undermines trust and fairness, similar to stock markets where insider trading is prohibited [1][2]. Group 1: Insider Trading and Market Integrity - Mansour asserts that insider information can lead to more accurate prediction markets, but he counters this by highlighting that such practices erode trust, which is essential for the long-term health of an exchange [1][2]. - Kalshi has conducted over 200 investigations in the past year, resulting in account freezes and over a dozen active cases, some of which have been referred to law enforcement [2][3]. Group 2: Compliance and Strategic Enhancements - To strengthen its compliance framework, Kalshi has made five major strategic hires, including Daniel Taylor from the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab and Brian Nelson, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence [4][5]. - An independent committee will provide quarterly reports on market integrity, and Kalshi is integrating Solidus Labs for advanced behavior monitoring tools [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Context and Industry Comparison - Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation, contrasting with many offshore prediction markets that lack U.S. oversight, which is why Mansour challenges the notion that insider trading is merely a form of faster price discovery [6]. - The debate on insider trading has been highlighted by contrasting views from other platforms, such as Polymarket, which has a more ambiguous stance on insider activity [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - An insider trading lawsuit against several Coinbase directors, including CEO Brian Armstrong, has been allowed to proceed despite an internal investigation clearing them of wrongdoing [2][3]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit was initiated by an investor in 2023, alleging that the directors used confidential information to avoid over $1 billion in losses by selling approximately $2.9 billion of stock during Coinbase's direct listing in 2021 [2]. - Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick rejected a motion to dismiss the lawsuit due to perceived conflicts of interest within the internal committee that investigated the claims [3]. - The judge noted that the committee's report supports the defendants' defense, suggesting they may ultimately prevail in the lawsuit [3]. Group 2: Coinbase's Response and Industry Context - Coinbase expressed disappointment over the court's decision and reaffirmed its commitment to contest what it describes as meritless claims [5]. - In a separate context, Armstrong discussed the potential of tokenization at the World Economic Forum, emphasizing its role in addressing inefficiencies in the financial system, particularly regarding settlement speed, fees, and access [5][6]. - Armstrong highlighted the global "unbrokered" population of around 4 billion people lacking access to high-quality investment assets, positioning stablecoins as a successful example of tokenization's potential [6][7].

Group 1 - Polymarket users have placed bets totaling tens of millions of dollars on the potential timeline for a US strike on Iran, with current odds favoring a winter or spring strike [1] - Additional millions have been wagered on the potential removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with the odds for an airstrike by June 30 currently at 61 percent [2] - The commercial use of prediction markets has surged, allowing users to fund event contracts using various payment methods including cryptocurrency [2] Group 2 - Despite some traders making significant profits, losses are common, and there have been allegations of manipulation and insider trading on the platform [3] - A specific incident involved a trader placing bids shortly before a surprise raid announced by US President Donald Trump, raising concerns about potential insider trading [3][4] - The increase in betting activity on Polymarket highlights the growing popularity of prediction markets, but allegations of manipulation could undermine the platform's integrity and credibility [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - DeFi Development Corp. launched its meme coin DisclaimerCoin (DONT) and faced insider trading allegations shortly after the launch due to suspicious trading activity by an early investor. Group 1: Launch Details - DeFi Development Corp. launched the DONT meme coin on Thursday, with a public announcement made at 8:30 a.m. ET [4][5] - The firm holds over 2.2 million SOL, valued at approximately $283 million [4] Group 2: Trading Activity - An early trader, identified as "8FziB," purchased $4,000 worth of DONT tokens shortly after the token's creation, acquiring around 29 billion tokens, which is nearly 7% of the total supply of 420 billion tokens [2][3] - The trader's investment quickly appreciated to over $1 million as the price surged following the firm's promotional activities [2][6] Group 3: Allegations of Insider Trading - Blockchain data indicated that the trader began purchasing DONT tokens about 25 minutes after the token was created, before the public announcement [3][5] - Observers noted potential connections between the trader's wallet and another Solana address linked to DeFi Development Corp.'s liquid staking token, raising suspicions of insider trading [7][8]

Core Insights - Prediction markets are under scrutiny following a significant bet on Nicolás Maduro's political fate, raising questions about potential insider trading and market manipulation [1][4][10] - The regulatory landscape for prediction markets in the U.S. remains unsettled, with ongoing lobbying and legal battles [4][6][9] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is the primary regulator for prediction markets, but existing rules may not adequately address the unique nature of these markets [5][6][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Prediction markets are gaining mainstream attention, with their data being featured on major news networks like CNN [3] - There is a growing debate on whether insider trading could enhance the accuracy of prediction markets, contrasting with traditional views on market integrity [10][11] - Operators of prediction markets are forming coalitions to establish regulations that prevent insider trading and ensure fair participation [10] Group 2: Regulatory Challenges - The CFTC has the authority to shut down contract categories deemed contrary to public interest, but the definition of "gaming" remains contentious [7] - Recent legal actions have involved state gambling regulators asserting authority over sports-related event contracts offered by prediction markets [8] - The Supreme Court may ultimately resolve the regulatory status of prediction markets, as they assert federal regulation [9]

An anonymous cryptocurrency trader has turned a $285 purchase into $627,000 in a single day, onchain data shows. However, the activity has raised insider trading suspicions among analysts considering the timing and patterns usually seen in these plays. Lookonchain originally reported the activity on X on Jan. 19, flagging four wallets as belonging to the same “insider” of the recently launched pump.fun memecoin ZReaL. According to the analyses, this “insider” spent $285 to buy 66.3 million of ZREAL, then ...

Core Insights - Prediction markets have reached a record weekly trading volume of $3.7 billion, with a notional volume of $5.57 billion, indicating a significant increase in event-based trading interest [2][3] - User engagement has surged, with weekly active users peaking at 335,583, and transaction counts also rising [3] - Major industry players, including Coinbase and a Gemini affiliate, are entering the prediction market space, indicating growing institutional interest [8] Trading Activity - The trend of increasing trading volumes began in 2025, surpassing meme coins and NFTs [2] - Three categories dominate the trading volume on platforms like Polymarket, focusing on political events, sports, and crypto-related markets [3] Individual Trader Performance - A notable trader on Polymarket turned a loss of over $6.8 million into a profit of approximately $395,000, showcasing the volatility and potential for recovery in prediction markets [4] - However, not all traders have been successful; two users lost nearly $10 million in less than a month, highlighting the risks involved [6][7] Betting Behavior - The size of bets has increased significantly, with some traders now placing bets exceeding $3 million [5] - The performance of traders varies widely, with some achieving a win rate of around 46% while others experience substantial losses [7]

Core Insights - Akamai Technologies Inc. experienced significant insider trading activity with the sale of 5,000 shares by Executive Vice President Joseph Paul C at approximately $90.17 each, leaving him with 17,513 shares [1] - An investor conference call is scheduled for February 19, 2026, to discuss the financial results for Q4 and the full year of 2025, with a focus on forward-looking financial guidance [2] - Akamai's stock closed at $90.65, reflecting a 2.01% increase, while the company anticipates an EPS of $1.75 and revenue of $1.08 billion for the upcoming financial results [3][4] Stock Performance - Akamai's stock has shown a 1.28% rise over the past month, which is lower than the sector's gain of 2.62% and the S&P 500's increase of 2.06% [3] - The current market capitalization of Akamai is approximately $13.17 billion, with the stock valued at $91.53 [4]