中金公司研报指出，本次"结构性降息"主要是结构性的，后续也并不意味着马上会有传统的"降息"。在 新闻发布会上，央行通常会一次性宣布总量性的降准降息和结构性货币政策的调整，比如去年5月。在 本次发布会上，央行主要是宣布了结构性货币政策工具的降息，并没有宣布传统的降准降息政策。与此 同时，央行在发布会上指出，"近期中国的物价水平已经出现积极变化，中国宏观政策的协调效应也在 不断强化"。结合这些信息来看，我们倾向于认为这次政策调整主要是结构性的，总量上则是保持了大 体宽松的基调。在信息发布之后，国债期货小幅走高后回落，我们计算的政策利率预期指数显示，目前 的降息预期大体平稳，对2026年全年降息预期在10bp左右。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction this week lies in the impact of the US non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate on the probability of interest rate cuts, the supply-demand relationship in the copper market, and the confirmation of the tight supply of copper mines in 2026. Looking ahead to next week, macroeconomic data will affect market sentiment and copper prices. The strategy is to follow the trend if there is a breakthrough; otherwise, buy at low levels within the range [2][3]. - Cathode copper is currently in the mid - stage of an uptrend with a neutral cycle, while LME copper is in the late stage of an uptrend at a high cycle level, and there is a risk of a pullback. The risk - return ratios for going long on SHFE copper and LME copper are low, so caution is advised [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The US non - farm payroll data and unemployment rate exceeded market expectations, slightly increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 26.6% (24.4% the previous week), and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.4%. By March 2026, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 11.5%. Next week, the release of macroeconomic data such as the US initial jobless claims and core PCE price index will affect market sentiment [2][3]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: Near the end of the year, holders of copper have a stronger willingness to destock. In the context of increasing electrolytic copper production from November to December, the sellers' willingness to sell continues to rise, while downstream processing enterprises are still hesitant to buy at high prices, resulting in limited spot price increases. The LME copper cancelled warrants remain above 60,000 tons, supporting the rebound of the copper premium in China's bonded area. The export window is still open. The 2026 copper long - term TC/RC, announced over the weekend, is set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, confirming the tight supply of copper mines in that year [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestion - **Trend Judgment**: Cathode copper is in the mid - stage of an uptrend with a neutral cycle; LME copper is in the late stage of an uptrend at a high cycle level, and attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback. The risk - return ratio for going long on SHFE copper is 0.69% (low risk - return ratio), and for LME copper is 0.71% (low risk - return ratio), so caution is advised [3][14]. - **Price Range**: The price range for SHFE copper is [89,735, 95,178], with a price center of 92,457; for LME copper, it is [11,303, 12,145], with a price center of 11,724 [14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Follow the trend if there is a breakthrough; otherwise, buy at low levels within the range [3]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Arbitrage Strategy**: The basis strategy is to expect it to strengthen. On December 19, the basis was - 565 yuan/ton, in the lowest 10% of historical quantiles, and the probability of an expansion in the next 1 - 2 weeks is 82.3%. The calendar spread strategy is neutral, with the main fluctuation range of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts being [- 90, 260], and the current spread is - 40. The cross - border spread is within the normal range, and it is recommended to wait and see. The current SHFE - LME ratio is 7.89, at the 43.3% historical quantile (lower than last week) [14][16]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Suggestion - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, when the expected price has strong resistance at 95,000 yuan/ton and the lower limit is 90,000 yuan/ton, they can short the SHFE copper main contract at the resistance level, build positions at high prices, and stop losses if the price breaks through. They can also sell call options or buy put options but should wait and see for now. - **Raw Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, when the expected price has strong support at 90,000 yuan/ton, they can buy the main contract futures near the support level. They can also buy up - and - out cumulative options in the range of 90,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton [20]. 1.4 Review of Trading and Hedging Strategies - The previous long futures hedging positions bought at low levels can continue to be held. Those who have not hedged may have missed the ideal hedging price. If they are in a hurry to purchase, they can consider the "sell put option + buy call option" combination to synthesize a long strategy [25]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretation 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 20, Chinese smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee Benchmark at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. From January to October 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 122,000 tons, less than the 261,000 - ton surplus in the same period last year. Global copper demand growth forecasts have been revised upward, with the 2025 growth rate expected to increase from 2.4% to 2.7%. China's demand expectation has been raised from 3.3% to 3.7%, and demand outside China has been raised from 1.0% to 1.2%. Institutions expect the 2026 market to remain slightly in surplus, with the surplus potentially expanding in 2027, and the market to return to a structural shortage by 2030 [28][29][30]. - **Negative Information**: In November 2025, the domestic copper rod output was 106,210 tons, a 7.87% increase from October, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 54.08%, a 3.95% increase from the previous month. The Chinese copper industry monthly prosperity index in November was 39.7, a 2 - point decrease from the previous month, and continued to operate in the "normal" range. The LME plans to implement new position limit regulations from July next year. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 and cumulative cuts by March 2026 has been adjusted [30][31][32]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretation Next week, many macroeconomic indicators will be released, including the UK GDP year - on - year, US PCE price index, initial jobless claims, etc., which will affect market sentiment on copper prices [34]. 3. Interpretation of Price, Volume, and Capital on the Disk 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation This week, the trading volume and open interest of the SHFE copper weighted index decreased significantly, and the market speculation degree dropped below the mid - line. The price of the SHFE copper main contract fluctuated around 92,579 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57% and an amplitude of 3.95%, and closed at 93,180 yuan/ton on Friday [35][36]. 3.2 Overseas Market Interpretation This week, the overseas copper futures performed better than the domestic market. The Comex copper price reached a one - month high on Friday night and then pulled back, while the LME copper price maintained an uptrend with a small amplitude. The LME copper price mainly fluctuated in the range of [11,536.5, 11,928] dollars/ton, increased by 1.58% week - on - week, and closed at 11,870.5 dollars/ton. The Comex copper price mainly fluctuated in the range of [531.75, 556.55] cents/pound, increased by 1.41% week - on - week, and closed at 548.35 cents/pound. The LME copper term structure has gradually changed from contango to backwardation, and the positive spread between months has widened negatively. The open interest of the Comex copper active contract remains at a high level in the same period [35][38]. 4. Analysis of Spot Price and Profit 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit In the second half of this week, the electrolytic copper spot price strengthened, but the discount widened. The scrap copper market showed "higher prices but less volume", and the invoice situation in Guangdong and Jiangxi was tight, increasing the capital cost pressure on scrap copper enterprises. The purchasing and selling sentiment in the electrolytic copper spot market changed. The smelting income of refined copper increased week - on - week [42][43]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume This week, the copper import profit and scrap copper import profit increased significantly year - on - year, and domestic enterprises' willingness to import copper is expected to increase. The Yangshan copper premium in the bonded area has been rising, which will continue to support smelters' copper exports. It is expected that the copper inventory in the bonded area will remain balanced. It is estimated that China will import 2.6 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates in December 2025, with an annual import volume of 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% [45][46]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis This week, the "siphon effect" of the Comex copper inventory still exists. The domestic copper inventory increased year - on - year, and the LME copper inventory decreased year - on - year. The LME copper cancelled warrants remained above 60,000 tons but decreased compared to the previous week, while the LME copper registered inventory increased significantly. The total Comex copper inventory increased, and the registered inventory continued to rise, indicating that holders continued to sell on the disk [49]. 5. Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - **Global Perspective**: In 2025, the global copper concentrate production is expected to be 19.871 million metal tons, with an actual copper rough - smelting output of 20.154 million metal tons, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is - 166,000 metal tons. In 2026, the global copper concentrate production is expected to be 20.441 million metal tons, with an actual copper rough - smelting output of 20.664 million metal tons, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is - 331,000 metal tons [55]. - **Domestic Perspective**: In November, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a 1.05% month - on - month increase and a 9.75% year - on - year increase. The cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a 11.76% year - on - year increase. In December, it is expected that 4 smelters will be under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 million tons. It is estimated that the electrolytic copper production in December will be 1.1688 million tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase and a 6.69% year - on - year increase [56][57]. 5.2 Demand Expectation In November, the domestic copper product output was 1.7879 million tons, slightly lower than expected, and the comprehensive copper product operating rate was 61.6%, a 3.8% month - on - month increase. Except for the recycled copper rod industry, the operating rates of other industries increased. In December, it is expected that the operating rates of most industries will continue to increase slightly. The expected copper product output, copper rod output, copper strip output, copper tube output, and copper rod output are likely to increase month - on - month, and the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper will also increase month - on - month [59][60][61]. 5.3 Price Expectation This Friday, the market sentiment was high, and the copper price increased significantly, especially in the Comex copper market, where the price reached a one - month high. The copper price can either rise or fall at the current level. From the perspective of the 2026 long - term TC/RC announced over the weekend, the confidence of funds to buy at low levels will be re - stimulated, and the probability of the copper price breaking through again will increase. If the breakthrough is less than expected and the market returns to a volatile situation, it is still advisable to buy at low levels within the range [65].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rally, with the ChiNext Index surpassing the 3000-point mark for the first time since February 2022, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1]. Market Performance - On September 11, 2025, the three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.31% to 3029.58 points, marking a cumulative increase of 72% from its low of 1756 points in early April [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.12% to 3855.1 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.63% to 12887.73 points [1]. - A total of over 3300 stocks in the market rose, while more than 1800 stocks declined [1]. Sector Performance - Among the 31 primary industry sectors, most saw gains, with the telecommunications, electronics, and computer sectors leading the increases. Conversely, the textile and apparel, social services, and banking sectors experienced the largest declines [1]. Investment Trends - Analyst Zhang Gang from Zhongyuan Securities noted that there is a noticeable shift of household savings towards the capital market, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [1]. - The Federal Reserve's signals of potential interest rate cuts are contributing to a more relaxed global liquidity environment, which, along with a weaker dollar, is favorable for foreign capital returning to A-shares [1]. - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with close attention needed on policy, funding, and external market changes [1].

Group 1 - International gold prices have maintained a high level, reaching the highest point since July 23, with a monthly increase of 3.6% as of now [3] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.33% in overnight trading, has made gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen to 86%, reflecting in trading data [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may challenge $3,450 per ounce, with a potential upward trend if prices surpass $3,400 per ounce [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are gaining momentum, and if gold exceeds $3,438 per ounce, the next target will be the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce [4] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below the 20-day simple moving average of $3,364 per ounce, sellers may target the 50-day moving average at $3,348 per ounce [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short term, the volatility of London gold has increased. Given the upcoming significant events and data this week, market fluctuations may intensify. For London gold, the support level is at the 3300 mark, and resistance levels are at 3350, 3370, and 3400. For London silver, the support range is 37.8 - 38, and resistance levels are at 38.3, 38.7, 39, and 39.5. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and fluctuated. The US dollar index rose, the yield of the 10Y US Treasury bond dropped significantly, the US stock market pulled back, the European stock market rose, the Chinese stock market was relatively strong, Bitcoin fluctuated, and crude oil prices rose due to the US threat to impose tariffs on Russia if the cease - fire agreement deadline is advanced to August 8. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3383 per ounce, up 0.48%; the US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.385 per ounce, up 0.43%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 771.44 yuan per gram, down 0.24%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9195 yuan per kilogram, down 0.33% [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations fluctuated slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 2.6%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates was 34.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 1.7%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates was 15.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 47.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 35.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut was 0.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 956.23 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15173.92 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.4 tons to 1204.9 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons in the week ending July 25 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week has a dense schedule of data, including end - of - month and beginning - of - month important US PCE, non - farm payroll reports, ISM manufacturing PMI, etc. In terms of events, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report at 21:45 on Wednesday. The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:30. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report on Thursday afternoon [4]. Price and Spread Data - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 771.44 yuan per gram, down 0.43%; SGX gold TD was at 767.19 yuan per gram, down 0.57%; CME gold main contract was at $3325.3 per ounce, up 0.34%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 9195 yuan per kilogram, down 0.18%; SGX silver TD was at 9163 yuan per kilogram, down 0.25%; CME silver main contract was at $38.385 per ounce, up 0.14%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 4.25 yuan per gram, up 32.81%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 32 yuan per kilogram, up 30%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 86.6302, up 0.2% [5][6]. Inventory and Position Data - SHFE gold inventory was 31263 kilograms, up 3.32%; CME gold inventory was 1187.1127 tons, up 0.35%; SHFE gold position was 212407 lots, up 1.3%; SPDR gold position was 956.23 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 1204.866 tons, down 0.28%; CME silver inventory was 15623.181 tons, up 0.12%; SGX silver inventory was 1368.435 tons, up 4.3%; SHFE silver position was 392743 lots, down 1.43%; SLV silver position was 15173.916734 tons, up 0.09% [11]. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.9021, up 0.25%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1812, unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44632.99 points, down 0.46%; WTI crude oil spot was $69.21 per barrel, up 3.75%; LmeS copper 03 was $9803 per ton, up 0.41%. The 10Y US Treasury bond yield was 4.34%, down 1.81%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 1.91%, down 3.54%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury bond yield spread was 0.48%, down 5.88% [15].

Group 1 - The macro market atmosphere remains neutral to bullish, with concerns about Powell's dismissal easing after Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, leading to a recovery in market sentiment and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [1][3] - Gold and silver prices experienced a decline, with COMEX gold down 0.51% and silver down 0.26%, while copper prices saw an increase of 3.99% on COMEX [2][22] - The copper market is closely monitoring the upcoming implementation of U.S. tariffs on imported copper, with market sentiment affected by rising Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar [3][6] Group 2 - The precious metals market faced pressure as risk appetite increased, leading to a pullback in gold prices despite macroeconomic support for high price levels [4][54] - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high before retreating, indicating significant resistance above 80,000 CNY/ton, with domestic refined copper consumption showing signs of seasonal weakness [6][12] - The COMEX copper price curve remains in contango, with inventories nearing 250,000 tons, suggesting potential for further accumulation in U.S. copper stocks [7][8] Group 3 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index increased slightly, indicating a stable yet low activity in the spot market, with processing fees showing a slight recovery [9][12] - COMEX gold and silver inventories increased, with gold inventory rising to 37.76 million ounces and silver to approximately 50.03 million ounces [39][44] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 13 tons, indicating a continued preference for gold among investors [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals is expected to be bullish. In the short term, with the need to wait for interest rate cuts, no escalation of geopolitical risks, and trade tariff negotiations not entering a sensitive period, the overall market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Short-term corrections are regarded as medium- to long-term buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, down 0.61%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.36 per ounce, down 1.5%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 0.49%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 1.91% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 89.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 10.3%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 61.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 6.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 34.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut is 3.4% [3]. - In the long term, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.37 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14763 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 14 tons to 1243 tons daily, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - The Bank of England's interest rate meeting on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% unchanged, but the divergence among voting members increased [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 4.18 yuan or 0.53%; the SGX gold TD closed at 777.44 yuan per gram, down 4.2 yuan or 0.54%; the CME gold main contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, up $1 or 0.03%. The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 226 yuan or 2.5%; the SGX silver TD closed at 8777 yuan per kilogram, down 212 yuan or 2.36%; the CME silver main contract closed at $36.76 per ounce, down $0.42 or 1.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: The SHFE gold inventory was 18168 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1175.2202 tons, down 0.009 tons; the SHFE gold position was 161031 lots, down 1390 lots or 0.86%; the SPDR gold position was 947.37 tons, up 1.43 tons or 0.15%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1242.994 tons, up 13.962 tons or 1.14%; the CME silver inventory was 15419.0964 tons, down 26.3768 tons or 0.17%; the SGX silver inventory was 1378.875 tons, up 59.55 tons or 4.51%; the SHFE silver position was 387527 lots, down 58454 lots or 13.11%; the SLV silver position was 14763.000528 tons, up 87.6368 tons or 0.6% [13]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 98.7857, down 0.066 or 0.07%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.19, down 0.002 or 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42171.66 points, down 44.14 points or 0.1%; WTI crude oil spot was $75.6 per barrel, up $0.46 or 0.61%; LmeS copper 03 was $9619.5 per ton, down $31 or 0.32%; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 0.01% or 0.23%; the 10-year US real interest rate was 2.07%, down 0.01% or 0.48%; the 10 - 2-year US Treasury yield spread was 0.44%, down 0.01% or 2.22% [17].