Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in gold prices driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising global geopolitical uncertainties, and increased central bank gold purchases [1][2][3] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The primary drivers of the recent gold price surge are heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over the political independence of the Fed, leading to increased risk aversion [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy was signaled by Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole conference, which has significantly raised market expectations for rate cuts [2] - Recent labor market data showed disappointing job growth, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in September, with traders now pricing in a 100% probability of a cut [2][4] Group 2: Central Bank and ETF Demand - Strong global buying pressure, particularly from central banks and increased inflows into gold ETFs, has provided substantial support for gold prices [3][6] - Central banks have been significant buyers, with global official gold reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2 2025, maintaining historical highs [3] - China's central bank reported an increase in gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [3] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts, including Goldman Sachs, have raised their gold price forecasts, with a baseline target of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and a potential extreme scenario of $5,000 [4][5] - The expectation of continued rate cuts and ongoing political uncertainties are seen as key factors supporting this optimistic outlook for gold prices [4][5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider various investment tools in the gold market, including physical gold, liquid gold ETFs, gold mining stocks, and leveraged gold futures [6] - The low correlation of gold with traditional stock and bond assets makes it an effective tool for risk diversification and stabilizing overall portfolio returns [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver may face correction pressure due to overbought technical indicators. The inflation data is not expected to support a 50BP rate cut, and economic or employment deterioration is the main driving factor. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be reduced on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market oscillated at high levels. Investors are waiting for the US August CPI data to guide the rate cut amplitude in mid - September. Since the end of August, the strength of precious metals has been mainly affected by the enhanced expectation of Fed easing and the significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields. The market focus is on the Fed's rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment and independence issues, and bond market risks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3680.4 per ounce, down 0.05%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $41.65 per ounce, up 0.75%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 833.42 yuan per gram, up 0.21%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9796 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%. The US August PPI data supported the September rate cut expectation and did not rule out the possibility of a 50BP rate cut [2]. 3.2 Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - The expectation of a rate cut within the year has slightly declined, and the expectation of a 50BP rate cut in September has cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings slightly increased by 0.27 tons to 979.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings were 15069.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.9 tons to 1252.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1248.3 tons as of the week ending September 5 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US CPI data at 20:30 on Thursday. In terms of events, this week is the blackout period for Fed officials before the September 18 Fed interest rate decision. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision [3]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 833.42 yuan per gram, down 1.06 yuan or 0.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various inventories and holdings, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings. For instance, SHFE gold inventory was 45951 kilograms, up 1536 kilograms or 3.46% [15]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary**: The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various financial indicators, including the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, etc. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.8197, up 0.0573 or 0.06% [18].

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures reached a historic high, exceeding $3557.1 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of the report, COMEX gold futures price retreated to $3545.7 per ounce, while SHFE gold futures surpassed 800 yuan per gram [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also hit record highs, with notable increases: Chow Tai Fook at 1027 yuan per gram (up 18 yuan), Lao Miao at 1023 yuan per gram (up 16 yuan), and Chow Sang Sang at 1025 yuan per gram (up 15 yuan) [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts in upcoming meetings is high, which would positively impact precious metal prices [2] - Short-term risks of a significant gold price correction are considered low due to ongoing favorable factors such as rate cut expectations and persistent geopolitical conflicts [2] - In the medium to long term, evolving global political and economic dynamics, along with challenges to the dollar's credit system, are expected to support gold prices, although specific rate cut timing and overseas economic recovery may introduce volatility [2] - Predictions indicate that gold prices may challenge $3700 to $4000 per ounce within the next year and a half, driven by rate cuts and central bank gold purchases [2]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures reached a historical high, exceeding $3557.1 per ounce, with a slight retreat to $3542.4 per ounce, marking a 0.75% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also hit recent highs, with notable increases from brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Miao, and Chow Sang Sang, reflecting a rise of 1.78% to 1.79% from the previous week [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, increased geopolitical risks, a weakening dollar, and central banks accumulating gold reserves [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict a high probability of consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings, which is expected to positively impact precious metal prices, particularly silver [2] - On September 1, COMEX silver prices reached a peak of $41.64 per ounce, marking a significant increase of 41.7% year-to-date, outperforming gold [2] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to 85.42, indicating a trend of silver prices following gold price fluctuations [2] Group 3 - Current market conditions suggest a low risk of significant pullbacks in gold prices, supported by ongoing favorable factors such as rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions [3] - Long-term projections indicate that the evolving global political and economic landscape may continue to support gold prices, with some institutions forecasting potential challenges to $3700 or even $4000 per ounce within the next 18 months [3] - The gold-silver ratio is stabilizing near a three-year average, with silver prices expected to follow gold's movements [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The mid - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and in the short - term, although the multi - short game is intense, the bulls are mainly in control. Precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rebound. The support for London gold is 3340, with resistance at 3400 and 3450; the support for London silver is 37, with resistance at 38. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情回顾] - On Monday, the precious metal market stopped falling and rebounded. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 781.42 yuan/gram, up 1.36%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 1.3%. The main reason for the price increase was the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2]. [本周关注] - This week's data is light. Pay attention to the US ISM Services PMI and import - export data on Tuesday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 03:10, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy; on Friday at 22:20, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]. [南华观点] - The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short - term, the multi - short game is fierce, but the bulls control the rhythm. The precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rise. For London gold, the support level is 3340, and the resistance levels are 3400 and 3450; for London silver, the support level is 37, and the resistance level is 38. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. [贵金属期现价格表] - SHFE gold main continuous contract: 781.42 yuan/gram, up 10.7 yuan, or 1.39%. SGX gold TD: 775.55 yuan/gram, up 8.37 yuan, or 1.09%. CME gold main contract: 3428.6 dollars/ounce, up 12.6 dollars, or 0.37%. SHFE silver main continuous contract: 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 121 yuan, or 1.36%. SGX silver TD: 8999 yuan/kilogram, up 111 yuan, or 1.25%. CME silver main contract: 37.445 dollars/ounce, up 0.34 dollars, or 0.92%. SHFE - TD gold: 5.87 yuan/gram, up 2.33 yuan, or 65.82%. SHFE - TD silver: 40 yuan/kilogram, up 10 yuan, or - 37.5%. CME gold - silver ratio: 91.5636, down 0.4995, or - 0.54% [5]. [库存持仓表] - SHFE gold inventory: 35889 kilograms, up 144 kilograms, or 0.4%. CME gold inventory: 1206.6166 tons, up 2.426 tons, or 0.2%. SHFE gold position: 217696 lots, down 1072 lots, or - 0.49%. SPDR gold position: 954.8 tons, up 1.72 tons, or 0.18%. SHFE silver inventory: 1174.273 tons, down 9.684 tons, or - 0.82%. CME silver inventory: 15757.0987 tons, down 1.8489 tons, or - 0.01%. SGX silver inventory: 1368.435 tons, up 56.415 tons, or 4.3%. SHFE silver position: 371051 lots, up 5858 lots, or 1.6%. SLV silver position: 15021.873699 tons, down 34.7912 tons, or - 0.23% [14]. [股债商汇总览] - US Dollar Index: 98.757, up 0.0664, or 0.07%. US Dollar to Chinese Yuan: 7.1842, down 0.0093, or - 0.13%. Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44173.64 points, up 585.06 points, or 1.34%. WTI crude oil spot: 67.33 dollars/barrel, down 1.93 dollars, or - 2.79%. LmeS copper 03: 9708.5 dollars/ton, up 75.5 dollars, or 0.78%. 10 - year US Treasury yield: 4.22%, down 0.01%, or - 0.24%. 10 - year US real interest rate: 1.85%, down 0.05%, or - 2.63%. 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread: 0.54%, up 0.11%, or 25.58% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short term, the volatility of London gold has increased. Given the upcoming significant events and data this week, market fluctuations may intensify. For London gold, the support level is at the 3300 mark, and resistance levels are at 3350, 3370, and 3400. For London silver, the support range is 37.8 - 38, and resistance levels are at 38.3, 38.7, 39, and 39.5. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and fluctuated. The US dollar index rose, the yield of the 10Y US Treasury bond dropped significantly, the US stock market pulled back, the European stock market rose, the Chinese stock market was relatively strong, Bitcoin fluctuated, and crude oil prices rose due to the US threat to impose tariffs on Russia if the cease - fire agreement deadline is advanced to August 8. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3383 per ounce, up 0.48%; the US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.385 per ounce, up 0.43%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 771.44 yuan per gram, down 0.24%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9195 yuan per kilogram, down 0.33% [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations fluctuated slightly. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 2.6%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates was 34.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 1.7%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates was 15.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 47.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 35.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut was 0.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 956.23 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15173.92 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.4 tons to 1204.9 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 56.4 tons to 1368.4 tons in the week ending July 25 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week has a dense schedule of data, including end - of - month and beginning - of - month important US PCE, non - farm payroll reports, ISM manufacturing PMI, etc. In terms of events, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report at 21:45 on Wednesday. The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:30. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report on Thursday afternoon [4]. Price and Spread Data - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 771.44 yuan per gram, down 0.43%; SGX gold TD was at 767.19 yuan per gram, down 0.57%; CME gold main contract was at $3325.3 per ounce, up 0.34%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 9195 yuan per kilogram, down 0.18%; SGX silver TD was at 9163 yuan per kilogram, down 0.25%; CME silver main contract was at $38.385 per ounce, up 0.14%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 4.25 yuan per gram, up 32.81%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 32 yuan per kilogram, up 30%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 86.6302, up 0.2% [5][6]. Inventory and Position Data - SHFE gold inventory was 31263 kilograms, up 3.32%; CME gold inventory was 1187.1127 tons, up 0.35%; SHFE gold position was 212407 lots, up 1.3%; SPDR gold position was 956.23 tons, unchanged. SHFE silver inventory was 1204.866 tons, down 0.28%; CME silver inventory was 15623.181 tons, up 0.12%; SGX silver inventory was 1368.435 tons, up 4.3%; SHFE silver position was 392743 lots, down 1.43%; SLV silver position was 15173.916734 tons, up 0.09% [11]. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 98.9021, up 0.25%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1812, unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44632.99 points, down 0.46%; WTI crude oil spot was $69.21 per barrel, up 3.75%; LmeS copper 03 was $9803 per ton, up 0.41%. The 10Y US Treasury bond yield was 4.34%, down 1.81%; the 10Y US real interest rate was 1.91%, down 3.54%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury bond yield spread was 0.48%, down 5.88% [15].