By Leika Kihara TOKYO, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as March if the yen renews its slide ahead of a U.S.-Japan summit expected to be held during the month, former central ‌bank board member Makoto Sakurai told Reuters. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to visit Washington for a meeting with U.S. ‌President Donald Trump around the time the BOJ holds its next policy meeting on March 18-19. Takaichi may seek the BOJ's help in keeping yen falls in check, as ...

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's first meeting of the year showed that several officials wanted the central bank to tell the market that there was a chance its next move might be to raise interest rates. ...

By Leika Kihara TOKYO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will hold their first bilateral meeting on Monday since the ruling party's landslide election victory, ‌which could serve as a venue to discuss the central bank's rate-hike plans. The meeting at 5 p.m. (0800 ‌GMT) comes amid simmering market speculation that the rising cost of living, driven in part by the weak yen, could prod the central ​bank to raise interest rates as soon as March or April. ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.19% due to reduced liquidity demand from a rally in equity markets and negative carryover from weaker US labor market news, which increased the chance of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting to 19% from 8% [1] - The dollar reached a 4-year low when President Trump expressed comfort with its weakness, compounded by foreign investors withdrawing capital amid a growing budget deficit and political polarization [2] - The University of Michigan US Feb consumer sentiment index rose unexpectedly by +0.9 to a 6-month high of 57.3, while 1-year inflation expectations fell to a 13-month low of 3.5% [3] Group 2 - US Dec consumer credit increased by $24.045 billion, significantly surpassing expectations of $8.000 billion, marking the largest increase in a year [4] - Hawkish comments from Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy to achieve a 2% inflation target, supported the dollar [5] - Swaps markets are pricing in a 19% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting, with expectations of a -50 basis point cut by 2026 [6] Group 3 - The EUR/USD pair recovered from a 2-week low, finishing up by +0.37% after initial declines due to weaker German industrial production, but rebounded following better-than-expected German trade news [7]

Economic Indicators - The Eurozone January S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 49.5 from the previously reported 49.4, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - The US January ISM manufacturing index rose +4.7 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, marking the strongest pace of expansion in over 3.25 years [3] - German December retail sales increased by +0.1% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while November retail sales were revised upward to -0.5% from -0.6% [6] Currency Movements - The euro is under pressure, down by -0.33% against the dollar, attributed to a stronger dollar despite the upward revision of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI [1] - The dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.57%, reaching a 1-week high, supported by President Trump's nomination of Keven Warsh as the next Fed Chair, who is perceived as more hawkish [5] - USD/JPY increased by +0.49%, with the yen falling to a 1-week low due to comments from Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi regarding the benefits of a weak currency for export industries [7] Central Bank Policies - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the BOJ is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points, and the ECB is expected to maintain current rates [2] - The markets are pricing in an 11% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC at the next policy meeting on March 17-18 [2] - The BOJ's January 22 policy meeting summary indicated a hawkish stance, with a focus on addressing rising prices, although the market discounts a rate hike at the next meeting on March 19 [9] Precious Metals Market - April COMEX gold is down -18.80 (-0.40%), while March COMEX silver is up +0.459 (+0.58%), reflecting mixed performance in precious metals [10] - Gold prices are pressured by a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical risks, while silver prices received support from the strong ISM manufacturing report [11] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's PBOC reserves increasing by +30,000 ounces to 74.15 million troy ounces in December, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of increases [16]

Economic Overview - Australian unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.3%, surpassing economists' expectations of 4.3% [1] - Employment increased by 65,200 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated gain of 27,000 [1] Market Reactions - Yields on three-year government bonds reached their highest level since November 2023, and the Australian dollar strengthened to its strongest position in over a year [2] - Money markets are now pricing in a nearly 60% chance of a rate hike in February, up from less than one-third prior to the jobs report [2] Central Bank Considerations - The upcoming quarterly inflation data is critical for policymakers ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy meeting on February 2-3 [3] - The RBA may need to decide between maintaining the current key rate or increasing it to address renewed inflationary pressures [3] Analyst Insights - The labor market data has removed a barrier for the RBA to consider a rate hike in February, with expectations of a 0.9% rise in consumer prices for the quarter [4] - The RBA previously cut the key rate by 75 basis points to 3.6% between February and August last year, but further easing is now deemed unlikely [4] Currency Performance - The strong employment data has contributed to a 1.8% gain in the Australian dollar this year, making it the best performer among Group-of-10 currencies [5] - Money markets are fully pricing in a rate rise for May, with over a 90% chance of two hikes occurring this year [5] Inflation Commentary - RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser described inflation as "too high" and indicated that the last cut of the easing cycle has likely occurred [6] - The RBA is adopting a patient approach to controlling inflation while preparing for potential rate adjustments [6]

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 20 December 2025 In long-term interest rates the 10-year JGB yield rose above 2% following this rate hike, but we see this as a healthy reaction to an appropriate rise in interest rates as the economy normalizes, and we do not expect an adverse stock market reaction. As we note in a separate report, the acceleration of the rise in long-term interest rates seen from mid-November has paused for now, but if the size and content of the initial FY2026 budget due to be deci ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level in nearly 30 years, indicating a gradual exit from ultra-easy monetary policy. Despite this significant change, Bitcoin's price remained stable, showing only a slight increase of under 1% and holding in the $87,000 range [1][2]. Group 1: BOJ Rate Hike Impact - The recent rate hike contrasts with historical trends where previous BOJ tightening cycles led to sharp sell-offs in crypto markets, particularly due to unwinding yen carry trades and tightening global liquidity [2][3]. - Market participants had largely anticipated the rate increase, suggesting that the move was already priced in, which contributed to Bitcoin's muted response [2][3]. - Analysts emphasize that the focus is not solely on the hike itself but on the forward guidance from BOJ Governor Ueda, which could indicate future rate hikes and amplify market effects [4][5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The BOJ has indicated a willingness to raise rates further, potentially reaching 1% or higher by late 2026, depending on wage growth and sustained inflation, which could exert pressure on risk assets [5][6]. - Bitcoin's resilience amidst the rate hike may signal a bullish trend, diverging from historical patterns of volatility in response to similar monetary policy changes [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to announce a potential interest rate hike on December 19, which could negatively impact Bitcoin and other risk assets due to historical market reactions to BOJ tightening cycles [1][5][6]. Group 1: BOJ's Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ's upcoming interest rate decision has raised concerns in global markets, particularly regarding the impact on Bitcoin and risk-on assets [1]. - Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that further rate increases are possible, leading to speculation among analysts and traders [1][5]. - A December poll indicated that 90% of economists expect the BOJ to raise short-term interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% [5]. Group 2: Impact of Rate Hikes on Markets - The BOJ's policy decisions have a significant global impact due to the carry trade, where investors borrow Yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets [2]. - When the BOJ raises rates, it can lead to liquidity outflows from various asset classes, including equities, bonds, and digital assets like Bitcoin [2]. - A sequence of events can occur following a carry trade collapse, including rising bond yields, a stronger Yen, increased costs for Yen-based debts, and forced liquidations of risk assets [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Predictions - Historical data shows that Bitcoin has reacted negatively to previous BOJ tightening cycles, with significant price drops following rate increases [5][6]. - Analysts have drawn parallels to past events, such as the December 2022 meeting when the BOJ's actions caused market disturbances [6]. - Predictions indicate that if the BOJ raises rates again, Bitcoin could experience further declines, similar to past instances where rate hikes led to substantial price drops [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the best ASX stocks to buy, highlighting the impact of interest rate trends in Australia and the performance of specific biotechnology companies [1][2][3]. Interest Rate Trends - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock indicated that there are no foreseeable interest rate cuts, suggesting a potential for rate hikes in the future [2][3]. - Bullock's comments surprised many, as she clearly signaled that further interest rate cuts are off the table, preparing the market for a possible tightening bias [3]. Company Highlights Immuron Limited (NASDAQ:IMRN) - Immuron Limited is a biotechnology company focused on preventing diarrhea and developing similar medicines [8]. - The company faced a significant setback with a 25.8% drop in share price after a clinical trial for its ETEC hyperimmune bovine colostrum product failed to meet its primary endpoint [8]. - Despite the setback, the FDA cleared Immuron's IMM-529 drug for a phase 2 clinical trial, targeting Clostridioides difficile infection, with the study expected to start in the first half of 2026 [9]. Radiopharm Theranostics Limited (NASDAQ:RADX) - Radiopharm Theranostics Limited is developing treatments for conditions such as brain metastasis and prostate cancer [10]. - B. Riley lowered its price target for Radiopharm to $13 from $15 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing important clinical progress for its RAD 101 and RAD 204 compounds [10]. - RAD 204's phase 1 clinical trial showed promising results, and RAD 101 is currently in a Phase 2b trial with FDA Fast Track Designation, targeting a market of 300,000 annual diagnoses of cerebral metastases in the US [11].