J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 20 December 2025 In long-term interest rates the 10-year JGB yield rose above 2% following this rate hike, but we see this as a healthy reaction to an appropriate rise in interest rates as the economy normalizes, and we do not expect an adverse stock market reaction. As we note in a separate report, the acceleration of the rise in long-term interest rates seen from mid-November has paused for now, but if the size and content of the initial FY2026 budget due to be deci ...

BOJ Rate Hike to 0.75% Leaves Bitcoin Steady. Photo by BeInCrypto The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19. It marks its highest level in nearly 30 years, reinforcing the country’s gradual exit from ultra-easy monetary policy. Yet despite the historic shift and warnings of a global liquidity squeeze, Bitcoin showed little reaction, rising just under 1% and holding in the $87,000 range. BOJ Just Raised Interest Rates Another 25 Basis Points – Why ...

Japan’s central bank is once again at the center of global market anxiety. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision on Dec. 19, and growing speculation of a rate hike has sparked fears that Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk-on assets could face renewed pressure. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that further rate increases were possible this month. Analysts and traders alike see echoes of previous market tremors and worry that history might soon repeat itself. Related: ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the best ASX stocks to buy, highlighting the impact of interest rate trends in Australia and the performance of specific biotechnology companies [1][2][3]. Interest Rate Trends - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock indicated that there are no foreseeable interest rate cuts, suggesting a potential for rate hikes in the future [2][3]. - Bullock's comments surprised many, as she clearly signaled that further interest rate cuts are off the table, preparing the market for a possible tightening bias [3]. Company Highlights Immuron Limited (NASDAQ:IMRN) - Immuron Limited is a biotechnology company focused on preventing diarrhea and developing similar medicines [8]. - The company faced a significant setback with a 25.8% drop in share price after a clinical trial for its ETEC hyperimmune bovine colostrum product failed to meet its primary endpoint [8]. - Despite the setback, the FDA cleared Immuron's IMM-529 drug for a phase 2 clinical trial, targeting Clostridioides difficile infection, with the study expected to start in the first half of 2026 [9]. Radiopharm Theranostics Limited (NASDAQ:RADX) - Radiopharm Theranostics Limited is developing treatments for conditions such as brain metastasis and prostate cancer [10]. - B. Riley lowered its price target for Radiopharm to $13 from $15 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing important clinical progress for its RAD 101 and RAD 204 compounds [10]. - RAD 204's phase 1 clinical trial showed promising results, and RAD 101 is currently in a Phase 2b trial with FDA Fast Track Designation, targeting a market of 300,000 annual diagnoses of cerebral metastases in the US [11].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates on December 18th or 19th, contingent on no significant events occurring beforehand [1][2] - There is a likelihood of an increase in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields due to the anticipated rate hike, making JGBs less attractive compared to other developed market bonds [3][4] - Concerns exist regarding the fiscal capacity in Japan deteriorating faster than in other regions, which could limit the ceiling on policy rates and contribute to unattractive yields [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is viewed as having a more significant impact on global markets compared to the BOJ, with current pricing indicating a dovish stance [7][10] - The Fed is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate increase, with a terminal rate projected at 3%, making it challenging to lower rates without substantial economic decline [8][9] - Upcoming Fed meetings are anticipated to provide new projections and insights, especially with a new Fed chair expected next year, indicating a potential shift in consensus [8][10]

Economic Indicators - Japan's household spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest rate in nearly two years in October, indicating the impact of inflation on consumer spending power [2] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 1.94%, the highest since mid-2007, with a projected rise of 13.5 basis points for the week, marking the steepest increase since March [2] Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.5%, erasing gains made earlier in the week, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell by 0.1% but was still set for a weekly gain of 0.5% [1] - A quarter-point rate hike from the Bank of Japan is now priced at 75%, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda about considering the implications of raising interest rates [4] Currency and Capital Flows - The Japanese yen remained stable at 155 per dollar, above its 10-month low of 157.9, reflecting shifting capital flows and changing market expectations [3] - Analysts noted that long-standing expectations regarding a permanently cheap yen are being challenged, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [3] Global Market Overview - In other markets, Australia's resource-heavy shares remained mostly unchanged, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index decreased by 0.5% and South Korea's shares increased by 0.7% [5] - The US dollar steadied after a nine-session decline, trading down 0.1% to 99 against major peers, and down 0.5% for the week [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for September is expected to show a 0.2% rise in the core measure, maintaining an annual rate of 2.9% [6] - The US non-farm payrolls report was not released, but jobless claims showed a significant drop, alleviating concerns about the labor market [7]

Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin price fell more than -5% to a 1-week low after the People's Bank of China highlighted risks of speculation and stated that virtual currencies lack legal tender status [1] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks, including Galaxy Digital Holdings, Strategy, and Coinbase Global, experienced declines of more than -6%, -4%, and -4% respectively due to Bitcoin's drop [12] Economic Indicators - China's November manufacturing PMI rose by +0.2 to 49.2, but was below expectations of 49.4, indicating weaker economic conditions [2] - The November ISM manufacturing index in the US unexpectedly fell -0.5 to a 14-month low of 48.2, contrary to expectations of an increase [3] Stock Market Performance - Major US stock indexes closed lower, with the S&P 500 down -0.53%, Dow Jones down -0.90%, and Nasdaq down -0.36% [5] - Energy producers saw positive performance as WTI crude oil rose more than 1% to a 1-week high, benefiting companies like Diamondback Energy and Devon Energy, which closed up more than +2% [14] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season showed strong results, with 83% of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts, leading to a +14.6% increase in earnings compared to expectations of +7.2% y/y [7] International Markets - Overseas stock markets had mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.01%, while China's Shanghai Composite rose +0.65% [8]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant declines, particularly affecting related stocks and ETFs like iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, which fell nearly 6% [1][4] - Concerns over potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have stalled a recent crypto rally, with implications for investor sentiment [2][3] - Japanese investors hold substantial amounts of Bitcoin, with their collective holdings reaching a record of 5 trillion yen ($32 billion), marking a 25% increase from the previous month [3] Market Reactions - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) saw a price drop of 5.92%, closing at $48.50, with a trading range between $47.55 and $49.20 for the day [4] - Bitcoin's price was over $91,000 before the news regarding Japan's interest rates, but it has since fallen to around $85,000, indicating high volatility in response to external developments [5][6] Investor Sentiment - Rate hikes in major markets tend to make conservative investments more attractive, leading to decreased appeal for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies [3][6] - The potential for a rate cut by the Bank of Japan raises concerns for yen-based investors, which could further impact Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's potential interest rate hike to stabilize the yen could lead to a significant reduction in liquidity, impacting global stock and bond markets [1] Group 1 - An increase in interest rates by Japan may result in evaporating liquidity [1] - The anticipated liquidity reduction could disrupt stock and bond markets worldwide [1]

Market Overview - The US dollar has gained against major currencies, particularly the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar, with a notable increase of 0.24% against the yen [1] - The dollar's strength is attributed to hawkish Federal Reserve minutes indicating a lower likelihood of a December rate cut, with the probability now at around 25%, down from 50% [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting revealed that many participants do not see a need for a December rate cut, while several believe it may be warranted [2] - Most Fed members agree that further reductions to the federal funds rate are appropriate, suggesting that a potential December cut would not indicate a change in policy direction [4] Labor Market Data - Market participants are focused on the delayed Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report for September, which is expected to show a small improvement in job gains, rising from 22,000 to 53,000 [7][8] - A reading above 100,000 may be necessary for traders to adopt a more hawkish stance regarding future rate cuts [8] Japanese Yen Performance - The Japanese yen has weakened significantly, with the dollar/yen exchange rate surpassing 156.80, as Japan's Finance Minister stated that the yen was not discussed with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor [9] - Traders interpreted this as a lack of imminent intervention, leading to increased short positions on the yen [10] Economic Outlook - The probability of a December rate hike by the BoJ is currently at 30%, with a slight majority of economists expecting a rate increase in the near future [10] - Further declines in the yen could potentially lead to a rate hike as policymakers aim to prevent inflation spikes [12] Nvidia's Market Impact - Nvidia's revenue forecasts exceeded analysts' expectations, contributing to a positive sentiment on Wall Street, with all three main indices closing higher [13] - Despite this, concerns about a potential tech bubble remain due to high forward price-to-earnings ratios in the S&P 500 [14]