By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) A real-time tracker of U.S. inflation is offering good news to crypto bulls as bearish forecasts continue to roll in. The Truflation index, an independent, real-time blockchain-based tracker of daily changes in the consumer price index (CPI), has dropped below 1% for the first time since at least early 2021. The index has fallen from 2.67% since mid-December, taking it well below the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. So while the official ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment, characterized by rising U.S. debt and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, may create a favorable macro setup for silver, potentially allowing it to outperform gold in this cycle [1][2][6]. Group 1: Economic Context - The substantial U.S. debt and the rising cost of servicing it could lead the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts, especially with a new Fed chair expected later this year [2]. - Precious metals, particularly silver, have shown resilience and rallied despite a lack of traditional fear triggers, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][5]. Group 2: Silver's Unique Position - Silver benefits from both safe-haven demand and industrial demand, unlike gold, which primarily serves as a reserve asset [3][4]. - The industrial demand for silver is driven by sectors such as semiconductors, data centers, solar energy, and electrification, which are expected to grow in a rate-cut environment [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent rally in silver has occurred alongside increased trading volumes, suggesting a robust market interest [5]. - If global economic activity remains strong and investments in AI and energy continue, silver may outperform gold in the upcoming market cycle [5]. Group 4: Investment Implications - The combination of a debt-driven Federal Reserve pivot and ongoing industrial demand presents a unique opportunity for silver, positioning it as a potential "accidental Fed trade" [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a divergence in opinions regarding interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for cuts in response to labor market weaknesses, while others emphasize inflation concerns as a reason to maintain current rates [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman suggests that the Fed should be ready to cut interest rates further if the labor market shows signs of weakening [1]. - The current Federal Funds Rate is set between 3.50% and 3.75%, with a total of 75 basis points cut in 2025 [4]. - The Fed's dual mandate requires balancing maximum employment with low inflation, indicating a complex decision-making environment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Higher interest rates are associated with lower inflation but can lead to increased job losses, while lower rates can reduce unemployment but may raise inflation [6]. - Economists define the neutral rate, or r-star (r*), as the interest rate that maintains full employment and stable inflation around the Fed's 2% target [5]. - The neutral rate is not fixed and can fluctuate based on various economic factors, including productivity growth and demographic trends [9]. Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed's median projection indicates only one additional 25 basis points cut is expected in 2026 [8]. - The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with a low probability of a quarter-percentage point cut estimated at 5% [9].

A rare and politically charged split is opening inside the Federal Reserve as policymakers look toward 2026. When it comes to interest-rate cuts this year, there’s one Fed official who wants the divisive central bank to go big — really, really big. Potential hiccup: He may be gone by the end of the month. Federal Governor Stephen Miran told Fox Business Network on Jan. 6 that the Federal Open Market Committee will need to cut interest rates by more than a percentage point in 2026. That’s not only 100 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Transportation Average has risen as much as 1.7% to 17,836.01 points, setting a record and surpassing its previous closing high from November 2024 [1] - The rebound in transportation stocks follows a long slump caused by global trade turmoil and tariffs that affected demand for goods shipments [2][5] - The US economy showed unexpected growth in Q3 2025, contributing to the positive performance of transportation stocks [3] Group 2: Sector Rotation and Economic Outlook - There has been a rotation from fully valued technology stocks to overlooked sectors like transportation, driven by an optimistic growth outlook for consumer demand in 2026 [3] - Analysts expect increased global oil supply from renewed Venezuelan production, which could lead to lower jet fuel costs and improved earnings for airlines [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. was a standout performer, surging 56% due to its use of artificial intelligence to reduce costs [4] - Norfolk Southern Corp. benefited from its planned tie-up with Union Pacific Corp., contributing to its positive performance [4] - Despite overall gains, United Parcel Service Inc. shares fell 21% last year due to tariffs and reduced business with Amazon.com Inc. [5]

S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high. Holiday trading volumes were thin, but investor sentiment stayed positive as markets moved into the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.05% to 23,549.36 as tech stocks cooled. Tuesday’s rally pushed the S&P 500 to a record close of 6,909.79, keeping momentum intact heading into year-end. Investors are balancing strong economic data with expectations for future interest-rate cuts. The U.S. Commerce Department reported third-quarter GDP growth of 4.3%, well above forecasts. The d ...

Treasuries edged lower after data showed the US economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years, denting expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2026 https://t.co/blRiJKnTWF ...

Bitcoin fell back below $90,000 after failing to sustain gains above this level in the previous session when positive broad-based risk appetite boosted the cryptocurrency.Investors are turning cautious ahead of a batch of U.S. data later that have the potential to alter expectations for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Reduced trading activity during the holiday-shortened week could also lead to increased volatility. The data include third-quarter economic growth data and durable goods orders, indu ...

US stocks wobbled on Tuesday after fresh data showed surprisingly strong growth in the US economy over the summer, leading investors to trim bets on near-term interest-rate cuts. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) both sat just above the flatline, while the blue-chip benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered just below. Overall, the major US gauges flipped between small gains and losses after scoring their third win in a row to start the week. Gold (GC=F) and silver ( ...

Indian bond yields climbed to a nine-month high as traders pared expectations of further interest-rate cuts https://t.co/01hkWt5921 ...