Bond traders are scrambling for a new strategy after the oil-driven inflation shock triggered by the war in Iran scuppered the popular bet on further interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve https://t.co/xKpMUeHMZh ...

Global gold-mining stocks tumbled, and are now in the red for this year, as traders ratcheted back expectations for interest-rate cuts with oil prices surging amid the Iran war https://t.co/cdIBpC1PeR ...

U.S. January PCE inflation rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY; core PCE increased 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. The data suggests persistent inflation pressures, leading economists to expect the Federal Reserve to delay interest-rate cuts. ...

A sharp swing in European money markets from bets on central bank interest-rate cuts to hikes has caught traders off guard, forcing some to exit options at hefty losses https://t.co/Ac4h2iAIm1 ...

Economic Impact of Oil Prices and Conflict - The ongoing conflict in West Asia and rising crude oil prices could reduce India's economic growth by 15–40 basis points (bps) in the next financial year [1][11] - If crude prices remain in the $100–$120 per barrel range, India's GDP growth may fall by up to 40 bps to around 6.8% in FY27 [2][12] - A 10% increase in average crude prices could lower GDP growth by 20–25 bps from the projected 7.2% [9][12] Inflation Projections - Retail inflation may exceed 5% in FY27, up from the current estimate of 4.3%, depending on whether higher fuel costs are passed on to consumers [3][12] - Economists expect inflation to rise by 40–50 bps due to higher input costs and supply disruptions [8][12] - A 10% increase in consumer prices for petrol and diesel could push inflation up by about 30 bps [7][12] Market Reactions and Policy Implications - Oil marketing companies may absorb some of the increased costs in the short term, keeping retail prices unchanged [7][12] - Prolonged volatility in oil prices could limit the scope for interest-rate cuts, likely keeping the policy rate unchanged in FY27 [8][12] - The economic outlook remains uncertain, contingent on the duration of the conflict and its implications for domestic investment and external trade [11][12]

CPI on tap: Inflation seemed to slow before Iran conflict jacked up oil prices. But did it really? - MarketWatch# CPI on tap: Inflation seemed to slow before Iran conflict jacked up oil prices. But did it really?## Interest-rate cuts from the Fed appear more distant due to fresh inflationPublished: March 10, 2026 at 11:09 a.m. ETShareResizeRising gasoline prices are the latest headache for the Federal Reserve. Photo: Getty ImagesOil prices have surged since the start of the conflict with Iran and American c ...

Core Insights - Gold has disappointed some investors this week despite a boost from worse-than-expected U.S. jobs data, with gold futures rising by $80, or 1.6%, to settle at $5,158.70 an ounce, but posting a weekly decline of 2.3%, the largest drop since the week ending January 30 [1] - Silver prices increased by $2.13, or 2.6%, to settle at $84.31 an ounce, but also experienced a significant weekly decline of 9.3%, marking its worst week since January 30 [2] - The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, contrary to expectations of a gain of 50,000, which theoretically supports the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in gold prices [3] Economic and Market Conditions - Rising oil prices and inflationary pressures, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions from U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, complicate hopes for interest rate cuts, with oil prices posting their strongest weekly percentage performance on record [4] - Safe-haven demand for precious metals has been somewhat mitigated by a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields, with the dollar up 1.4% this week and the 10-year Treasury yield increasing to 4.12% from 3.96% [5] - Analysts note that the current market focus is primarily on energy markets due to geopolitical uncertainties, which has reduced the urgency for a general uncertainty hedge, impacting gold's performance as a safe-haven asset [6]

Treasuries gained after a disappointing payroll report boosted expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year, despite a recent rise in oil prices that threatens to fuel inflation https://t.co/RaA5cS8e3L ...

Core Insights - February's hiring data revealed a decline of 92,000 jobs, contrasting sharply with January's increase of 126,000 and falling significantly short of the expected addition of 50,000 jobs [1][5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in the previous month, indicating potential instability in the labor market [1][5] Group 1: Employment Data - The weak hiring figures suggest that employers are adopting more cautious hiring strategies as February began, as noted by Ger Doyle from ManpowerGroup [2] - January's strong employment report may have been influenced by one-time factors, such as reduced holiday hiring, leading to fewer layoffs in early 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The disappointing jobs report has heightened inflation concerns, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has affected oil supply [4] - Following the release of the employment data, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 552 points (1.2%), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively [3] Group 3: Inflation and Energy Prices - National average gasoline prices surged to $3.32 per gallon due to disruptions in a vital maritime route for 20% of the world's oil, raising concerns about broader impacts on consumer prices [4]

Bond investors, who have been focused on inflation since the Iran war began, say a surprise in the monthly US jobs report has the potential to upend their expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts https://t.co/lz5nS9hxTd ...