Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the identification of 10 undervalued cyclical stocks for investment, emphasizing the potential for growth in the consumer cyclical sector and the importance of hedge fund interest in these stocks [1][5][6]. Market and Economic Outlook - Alan McKnight from Regions Wealth Management indicates that the consumer sector remains strong, with earnings performing well, suggesting a healthy market and economy [2]. - Richard Bernstein highlights that 2026 may present different investment opportunities, recommending dividend-paying stocks and international diversification due to the outperformance of international markets compared to the US market in 2025 [2][3]. Stock Selection Methodology - The list of 10 undervalued cyclical stocks was curated using the Finviz stock screener, Seeking Alpha, and Insider Monkey's Q3 2025 database, focusing on consumer cyclical stocks with a forward P/E ratio under 15 [5]. - Stocks were ranked based on the number of hedge fund holders, as research indicates that mimicking top hedge fund picks can lead to market outperformance [6]. Individual Stock Analysis - **Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM)** - Forward P/E Ratio: 11.77, with 37 hedge fund holders - The stock has gained over 22% in the past 6 months, with Wall Street projecting a 16% upside [7]. - Recently partnered with Galaxy Asia Car Rental to enhance visibility in Malaysia, a market experiencing triple-digit growth year-over-year [8][9]. - The partnership aims to integrate global planning with local execution, capitalizing on rising regional demand [9][10]. - **PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM)** - Forward P/E Ratio: 10.84, with 42 hedge fund holders - Wall Street has mixed opinions, with RBC Capital maintaining a Hold rating and lowering the price target from $112 to $111, while Citizens maintains a Buy rating with a $145 price target [11][12]. - RBC Capital expresses caution regarding the housing sector due to affordability challenges, while Citizens highlights the company's focus on move-up and adult buyers, which may mitigate the impact of mortgage rate volatility [12][13]. - PulteGroup generates approximately two-thirds of its annual sales from these buyer segments, providing a competitive edge [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic financial markets in 2025 experienced uneven performance, with volatility driven by foreign trade policy uncertainty and inflation concerns, leading investors to seek safer investment options [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Some market sectors and asset classes saw reasonable gains, but volatility remained a constant factor due to uncertainty over foreign trade policies and inflation concerns [1] - Ongoing worries about a potential AI bubble are affecting investor sentiment, particularly among seasoned investors [1] Group 2: International Market Interest - Investors are increasingly looking at international markets, specifically international equities and low-cost ETFs, as a means to diversify away from the crowded and unpredictable U.S. market [2] - International markets, while influenced by U.S. stock performance, do not have a direct 1:1 relationship, providing built-in protection against risks associated with a concentrated U.S. market [2] Group 3: Concentration Risks in U.S. Markets - A few tech giants dominate the domestic markets, with the top 10 U.S. stocks accounting for over one-third of total market value, creating a top-heavy market that poses significant risks [3] - If leading stocks experience downturns, such as from an AI bubble burst, many investors could face substantial losses [3] Group 4: Global Market Valuation - International stocks represent about 75% of global GDP but only account for approximately half of the global stock market capitalization, indicating that the U.S. market is significantly overvalued [4] - The "home bias" among U.S.-based investors may become problematic, making the shift to international markets a prudent strategy to mitigate risk [4] Group 5: Recommended Investments - Analysts at Morningstar have identified seven international equity funds and ETFs that are rated as "buy," all being gold-rated Morningstar Medalists with low-cost primary share classes and at least $100 million in assets [5]

Core Insights - The Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA) and the SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF (SPDW) provide low-cost exposure to developed markets outside the U.S., making them suitable for international diversification [2][10] - VEA is significantly larger than SPDW, with $260 billion in assets under management (AUM) compared to SPDW's $33.5 billion, and offers a slightly higher yield [4][11] Cost and Size Comparison - Both ETFs have an identical expense ratio of 0.03% [4] - VEA has a 1-year total return of 35.9%, while SPDW has a return of 35.2% as of December 30, 2025 [4] - VEA's dividend yield is not available, while SPDW offers a yield of 2.3% [4] Performance and Risk Analysis - Over the past five years, VEA has a maximum drawdown of -29.71%, while SPDW's is -30.23% [6] - The growth of $1,000 invested over five years would result in $1,308 for VEA and $1,302 for SPDW [6] - Cumulative growth for VEA is 55.2%, compared to SPDW's 53.4% [12] Portfolio Composition - VEA includes 3,864 stocks, while SPDW has 2,390 holdings, indicating broader diversification in VEA [7][8] - VEA's largest sector weights are in financial services, industrials, and technology, with top holdings including ASML Holding, Samsung Electronics, and AstraZeneca [7] - SPDW also has similar top holdings but is more tilted towards Swiss multinationals like Roche and Novartis [8] Investment Implications - Both ETFs serve as effective tools for portfolio diversification and hedging against U.S. economic downturns [10] - The primary distinction lies in their portfolio sizes and compositions, with VEA focusing more on large-cap stocks [11]

Core Insights - The article compares two international ETFs, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF (SPDW) and iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA), highlighting their differences in cost, size, and yield [1][2]. Cost and Size Comparison - SPDW has a lower expense ratio of 0.03% compared to IEFA's 0.07% [3]. - As of December 12, 2025, SPDW's one-year return is 26.6%, while IEFA's is 16.0% [3]. - SPDW has a dividend yield of 2.6%, slightly lower than IEFA's 2.9% [3]. - Assets under management (AUM) for SPDW is $33.3 billion, significantly smaller than IEFA's $163.0 billion [3]. Performance and Risk Metrics - Over five years, SPDW's maximum drawdown is -30.20%, while IEFA's is -30.41% [5]. - The growth of $1,000 invested over five years is $1,335 for SPDW and $1,330 for IEFA [5]. Sector Allocation and Holdings - IEFA includes 2,600 developed-market stocks, with major sectors being financial services (23%), industrials (20%), and healthcare (10%) [6]. - SPDW has a similar sector allocation, with top sectors being financial services (23%), industrials (19%), and technology (11%) [7]. - The largest holdings for both ETFs include ASML, AstraZeneca, and Roche, with SPDW also holding Samsung [7]. Investment Implications - Both ETFs provide pathways for international exposure, with IEFA being larger in terms of holdings and assets but with a higher expense ratio [8]. - SPDW offers broader international exposure by including Canadian companies, which constitute 11% of its geographical weighting [9]. - For investors prioritizing low cost and broad international exposure, SPDW is highlighted as a favorable option compared to IEFA [10].

Core Insights - SWAN Capital LLC increased its stake in the Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF by acquiring an additional 35,964 shares, valued at approximately $3.19 million, bringing the total stake to $8.02 million at the end of the third quarter [1][2]. Investment Activity - The acquisition of shares occurred during the third quarter, with the previous stake valued at $4.83 million [2]. - Following the purchase, VIGI represented 3.25% of SWAN Capital's reportable assets, which totaled $246.64 million as of September 30, 2025 [7]. ETF Overview - The Vanguard International Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIGI) focuses on non-U.S. companies committed to increasing dividends over time, with a market capitalization of $9.22 billion as of November 15, 2025 [5]. - As of November 14, 2025, VIGI's price was $90.51, with a trailing twelve-month dividend yield of 1.87% and a one-year total return of 12.24% [4][7]. Performance Metrics - VIGI's performance slightly underperformed the S&P 500 by 0.48 percentage points over the past year [7]. - The ETF's expense ratio is ultra-low at 0.1%, allowing most gains to benefit investors directly [9]. Portfolio Composition - The ETF is structured to replicate its benchmark index, holding a diversified basket of international equities [5][8]. - Its top five holdings include two financial firms, a drugmaker, a food and beverage company, and an enterprise software business [10]. Dividend Distribution - The quarterly dividends from VIGI may vary, as many international companies do not follow the typical quarterly payout schedule familiar to U.S. investors [11].

Core Insights - U.S. stock indices are reaching record highs, but international markets are outperforming them in 2025, marking a shift from the previous decade of U.S. dominance [1] - Many regions in Europe, Asia, and Latin America are cutting interest rates, creating a more predictable investment environment compared to the U.S., which is facing trade and inflation uncertainties [1] - The decline of the U.S. dollar in 2025 has positively impacted international stocks, particularly for U.S. dollar-based investors [1] - Valuations in U.S. equities have become high, prompting investors to seek opportunities in markets with lower price-to-earnings ratios [1] - Increased military-industrial spending in Europe due to geopolitical tensions is attracting investment interest [1] Market Dynamics - The easing cycle in various global markets contrasts with the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, leading to a shift in investment focus [1] - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of innovation in some international markets, but this is offset by regulatory predictability [1] - The trend of international diversification is gaining traction as investors look for opportunities outside the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are reaching new all-time highs, with valuations significantly above historical averages, suggesting a potential need for international diversification in investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Philipp is a value investor with nearly 20 years of experience, focusing on global investment opportunities and seeking undervalued companies that provide a significant margin of safety, attractive dividend yields, and returns [2] - The investment strategy emphasizes understanding companies thoroughly and assessing their future growth potential, particularly favoring those with a solid earnings track record trading at less than 8 times free cash flow [2]

Group 1 - The article expresses reservations about international diversification through passive ETFs, particularly those focusing on developed markets excluding the US [1] - The Franklin International Core Dividend Tilt Index ETF (NYSEARCA: DIVI) is highlighted as one of the few ETFs in this category [1] - The author has extensive experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, emphasizing a focus on equity valuation and market trends [1] Group 2 - The author, a former Vice President at Barclays, has led teams in model validation and stress testing, showcasing expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis [1] - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, with a focus on macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings [1] - The goal is to provide actionable investment ideas for those seeking to outperform the market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) position on cash, equities, credit, and bonds, while being "Underweight" (UW) on commodities for the next three months [3][21]. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equities have shown resilience despite tariff uncertainties, with a projected earnings growth of 10% to 11% for CY 2025/26, which is 2-3 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [2][6]. - The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, outperforming EM equities year-to-date, although EM equities have generally outperformed US equities in the same period [2][7]. - A weaker US Dollar is expected to support EM outperformance, as EM equities have historically benefited from a weaker Dollar [2][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and decisions from G4 central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB and stable unemployment rates in the US [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500's performance in May 2025 was notably strong, while EM equities have shown positive macro surprises, contrasting with muted US macro surprises [2][9]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a diversified approach, advocating for international diversification in equities and bonds, and highlights the potential benefits of EM equity and local rates [3][6][21]. Correlation Analysis - The correlation between MSCI EM and the US Dollar has turned more positive, indicating a decoupling of EM rates from US rates, which may provide investment opportunities [16][18].

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) has shown significant growth, with shares increasing over 100% since the second quarter of 2024, driven by new nicotine brands replacing traditional cigarettes [1] - The company is well-positioned for dividend growth over the next decade, supported by strong cash flow from its legacy cigarette business and expanding smoke-free product lines [2][8] Group 1: Company Overview - Philip Morris International operates as a leading tobacco company focused on international markets, distinct from Altria Group, which sells domestically [3] - The company benefits from international diversification, with revenue primarily generated outside the U.S., providing a hedge against dollar devaluation [4] Group 2: Product Innovation and Revenue Growth - Major investments in non-cigarette products have led to substantial growth, particularly with the nicotine pouch brand Zyn, which has grown to over 200 million cans sold per quarter in the U.S. [5] - The Iqos heat-not-burn device is a market leader in Europe and Japan, contributing significantly to revenue, with 42% of total revenue now coming from smoke-free products, totaling $38.4 billion over the last 12 months [6] Group 3: Dividend Strategy - Philip Morris pays a dividend of $5.35 per share, supported by free cash flow of $6.55 per share, despite current cash flow being impacted by investments in growth [10] - The company anticipates a rise in free cash flow per share to $10 or higher over the next five years, allowing for a projected 10% annual dividend growth, potentially increasing the payout to $8.61 [11] Group 4: Investment Potential - Despite a 100% increase in stock price over the past year, Philip Morris International remains an attractive investment, with a forward P/E ratio of 24, indicating it is not overly expensive for a consistent earnings grower [13][14] - The company holds a dominant position in the growing nicotine market without tobacco, positioning it favorably against competitors [14][15]