It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a little joe …Welcome to another rousing edition of Black Coffee, your off-beat weekly round-up of what’s been going on in the world of money and personal finance.I’ve got another busy weekend ahead of me, so let’s get right to this week’s commentary …The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.― William GibsonIf you don’t know where you’re going, you’ll end up someplace else.― Yogi BerraCredits and DebitsCredit: Did you see this? The move to abolish ...

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained 1.4% in January -- a historically a good sign for the months ahead. According to the January Barometer -- a well-known seasonal indicator -- a positive first month typically leads to strong returns for the remainder of the year. Data going back to 1950 shows the markets has significantly outperformed through the year's end when January ends on a high note.Below, we will break down numbers for the remainder of the year based on our current environment and assess which stocks ha ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday but was slightly higher for the week, with a 0.34% gain for the week and a 1.37% gain for January, briefly topping 7,000 for the first time ever [1] - The Nasdaq was flat for the week and gained 0.95% for January [1] Tech Earnings - Meta Platforms reported earnings that exceeded estimates, leading to a nearly 9% increase in its stock, while Microsoft saw an 8% drop due to disappointing results from its cloud computing business [1] - Apple broke an eight-week losing streak with a strong quarter driven by a 23% increase in iPhone sales, but concerns over memory shortages impacted its stock [1] - GE Vernova and Corning reached all-time highs, with Corning's stock rising after a $6 billion deal with Meta [1] Non-Tech Companies - Starbucks shares fell over 6% despite a promising quarter and a bullish Investor Day, indicating potential for a buying opportunity if the decline continues [1] - Honeywell shares reached an all-time high following a strong earnings report and news of accelerated aerospace spinoff plans, gaining nearly 3% for the week [1] - Dover's stock fell over 2% due to profit-taking after a strong earnings report, while Danaher and Boeing closed lower for the week [1] Software Sector - The software sector faced significant sell-offs, with Salesforce dropping 7% and ServiceNow falling 10% despite better-than-expected results [1] - Concerns over AI-driven disruptions led to a revaluation of SaaS companies, compressing price-to-earnings ratios [1] - Cybersecurity stocks like Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike also declined, but were viewed as buying opportunities [1] Federal Reserve Developments - The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady after three consecutive rate cuts, with Chairman Jerome Powell noting solid economic activity and stabilization in the unemployment rate [1] - President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell, which is seen as a more hawkish move, impacting gold and silver prices negatively [1]

Core Insights - The Santa Claus rally, which typically sees stock prices rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, did not occur this year, with the S&P 500 down 0.11% during this period [1][9] - This marks the third consecutive year without a Santa rally, while historically, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 1.3% during this rally period since 1950 [2] Market Outlook - Some investors are concerned that the S&P 500 may not achieve the high returns seen in recent years, although some strategists believe there is no immediate reason for pessimism [3] - Major institutions have set relatively modest annual targets for the S&P 500 for 2026, suggesting a less optimistic outlook for U.S. stocks [3] Historical Context - The absence of a Santa rally in previous years, such as 2000 and 2008, preceded significant market downturns, with a 4% decline in 2000 leading to the tech bubble burst and a 2.5% loss in 2008 resulting in one of the worst bear markets [4] - Analysts are cautious, with some suggesting that negative performance in the first five trading days of January could negatively impact the outlook for 2026 [5] Investor Sentiment - Despite the lack of a Santa rally, some analysts, like Mark Newton from Fundstrat, view the recent small breakout in the S&P as a positive sign, potentially leading the index back above 7000 [7] - Jessica Rabe from DataTrek advises against overinterpreting January's performance, noting that historically, a positive January often correlates with stronger annual returns [8]

Group 1: U.S. Military Action in Venezuela - Approximately 15,000 personnel were involved in the raid to capture Venezuelan President Maduro [1] - U.S. troops are expected to be stationed off Venezuela's coast, but the duration of their presence remains unclear [1] - President Trump stated that the U.S. would "run" Venezuela and stabilize the government to resume oil production [3] Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - The capture of Maduro has led to a boost in stock futures, with the Dow Jones up about 30 points and Nasdaq-100 futures up 98 points [5][7] - The S&P 500 ended the previous week down 1%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.5% and the Dow decreased by 0.7% [13] - The market had previously experienced a bullish year in 2025, with the S&P 500 up 16.6% and the Nasdaq up 20.4% [13] Group 3: Venezuela's Oil Reserves - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at 300 billion barrels, surpassing even Saudi Arabia [9] - Oil production in Venezuela has declined by approximately 70% since 2000 due to various factors including corruption and mismanagement [11] - Trump indicated that U.S. companies would be invited back to manage Venezuela's oil resources, which were previously controlled by them until expropriated in 1976 [11] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Reports - Upcoming economic reports, including job growth and consumer confidence, are expected to influence market reactions to the situation in Venezuela [19][20] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.7% from 4.6% in November, with job creation dropping to about 54,000 from 64,000 [22]

Company Insights - Rio Tinto is highlighted as a significant player in the metals market, particularly in copper, iron ore, aluminum, and lithium, with a recent acquisition of Argentinian mines [5][8] - The company is viewed as a long-term hold, with a strong asset base and a focus on essential metals needed for technological advancements and infrastructure upgrades in the US [6][9] - Rio Tinto's stock has increased by 38% year-to-date, which is considered mild for a metals and mining stock, and it offers a solid dividend yield of 3.86% with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 12 [9][10] Industry Trends - The metals market is expected to experience increased volatility, particularly in 2026, which is historically a challenging year in the presidential cycle [3][4] - There is a growing demand for metals, especially copper, as countries seek to secure their metal supplies for various technological and infrastructural needs [10][11] - The focus is shifting towards higher quality and value investments in portfolios, indicating a more cautious approach in the current market environment [4][5] Leadership Changes - Berkshire Hathaway is under new leadership with Greg Ael succeeding Warren Buffett, and there is a belief that his approach and the company's substantial cash reserves (over $300 billion) present a buying opportunity despite the loss of the "Buffett premium" [12][13] - Ael's younger perspective and ability to make acquisitions without disrupting the foundation built by Buffett are seen as positive factors for the company's future [13]

Core Insights - The Santa Claus rally historically leads to stock price increases during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, with an average gain of around 1.3% since 1950 [2][3] - The rally is viewed as a potential bullish indicator for the upcoming year, suggesting that positive performance during this period may signal a favorable market outlook [3][4] Historical Performance - The average gain during the Santa Claus rally period is 1.3%, compared to a mere 0.2% average return during typical 7-day periods [2] - In the past decade, the S&P 500 has only achieved a gain of over 1% during the Santa Claus rally in four instances [4] Market Predictions - Jeff Hirsch projects a year-end target for the S&P 500 at 7100, indicating a potential 20% gain for 2025, with the index currently up 17% year-to-date [4] - The S&P 500 has historically been up 90% of the time when the Santa Claus rally, First Five Days, and January Barometer indicators align positively at the start of the year [5] Investor Sentiment - Current investor sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of interest rate easing due to slight weaknesses in labor markets, which may support stock performance in 2025 [6] - Hirsch emphasizes that even if the Santa Claus rally does not occur, it does not necessarily predict a negative outlook for the following year [6]

分组1 - The discussion highlights the concept of tax loss harvesting, which involves selling positions at a loss to lower tax liability, particularly relevant as the year-end approaches [1][2][3] - Calendar effects such as the Santa Claus rally and January barometer are mentioned, with historical data showing that the stock market has risen 79% of the time during the last five days of December and the first two days of January, and the January barometer has accurately predicted full-year returns 85% of the time since 1950 [4][5] - The importance of long-term investing is emphasized, suggesting that focusing on high-quality businesses and holding them for at least five years is more beneficial than trying to time the market based on short-term calendar effects [5][6] 分组2 - Tesla reported a 12% year-over-year revenue growth after two quarters of decline, but the earnings missed expectations, indicating potential issues with profit margins [7][8] - The operating margin for Tesla has dropped in 10 of the last 11 quarters, with R&D spending increasing by 42% year-over-year, primarily for AI development [9][10] - Regulatory credit revenue for Tesla has decreased significantly, down 44% year-over-year in Q3, with expectations of less than $1 billion in the next 12 months, which could impact profitability [9][10] 分组3 - Etsy and EnPhase Energy are highlighted as potential outperformers after being dropped from the S&P 500, with Etsy showing strong free cash flow and recent integration with AI technology, while EnPhase is noted for its international growth and innovation despite current market challenges [13][15]