Following the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve will be flying more blind than usual without key data. This could lead to a mistake in setting interest rates, cutting too much if the job market strong, too little if it's weaker than thought. But there are clues to watch on the state of the economy.One of them is the ADP's private payroll report. It came in surprisingly weak. Last month, the private sector shed 32,000 jobs, marking the biggest decrease since 2023.JP Morgan Mike Feroli says the continu ...

The government shutdown is adding uncertainty to an already fragile economy at the worst possible time as it weathers volatility from President Trump's tariff war and shaky job market. Another expected casualty of the shutdown, this week's jobs report, which is not expected to be released on Friday. That means business leaders will miss key data they use to make critical decisions that drive the nation's economy.And the man tapped to run the agency that releases that report won't be taking the job after Tru ...

U.S. consumer confidence declined again in September as Americans' pessimism over inflation and the weakening job market continued to grow. ...

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Consumer confidence slumped in September to a five-month low on anxiety about persistent inflation, the softening job market and the economic outlook, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful fell to 26.9% in September from 30.2% while the portion saying jobs are hard to get remained at 19.1%, signalling slowing payro ...

25 September final Q2 GDP was positively surprising, one of the largest upward revisions to a final figure in recent years, and showing the strongest growth in nearly two years. This article summarises recent events affecting the dollar, primarily GDP, then looks briefly at the charts of EURUSD and GBPUSD. The upward revision to last quarter’s GDP seems to be particularly positive because it comes after a quarter of contraction and because the latest revision comes primarily from consumer spending: With ...

The US economy has lost 1.2% million jobs since April 2024, and Americans are feeling the economic downturn. The quits rate, a measure of how often workers voluntarily leave their jobs, is now down to about 2% after fluctuating in the years since the pandemic, and employers are hiring at the slowest pace since 2013, excluding the pandemic dip and rise. I think people just want to stay with what is known and not take any risks right now.We use the term job clinging or job hugging to denote that they're stayi ...

By Chibuike Oguh and Canan Sevgili NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar gained against peers including the yen, Swiss franc and euro on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing overnight. The dollar strengthened 0.54% to 0.795 against the Swiss franc, on track to snap two consecutive sessions of losses. The euro was lower against the dollar after German business morale fell unexpectedly in September. It was last down 0.69% at $1.1734 after ris ...

By Chibuike Oguh and Canan Sevgili NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar held steady against major peers on Tuesday as investors weighed commentary from Federal Reserve officials including Chair Jerome Powell, while the Swedish krona gained after the Riksbank delivered a hawkish 25-basis-point rate cut. The dollar was down 0.11% at 0.791 against the Swiss franc The euro was up slightly by 0.08% at $1.1812 while sterling was flat at $1.3517. Powell said the central bank needed to continue balancing ...

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the housing and job markets indicates that the central bank should have implemented more significant interest rate cuts to address economic concerns [1] Group 1: Housing Market - The housing market is showing signs of distress, which may necessitate a more aggressive monetary policy response [1] - Declining home sales and rising mortgage rates are contributing to a slowdown in the housing sector [1] Group 2: Job Market - The job market is also exhibiting weakness, with increasing unemployment claims suggesting potential economic instability [1] - A lack of job growth could further exacerbate challenges in consumer spending and overall economic health [1] Group 3: Central Bank Policy - The central bank's current interest rate strategy may not be sufficient to stimulate the economy given the troubling indicators from both the housing and job markets [1] - There is a growing consensus that more proactive measures are needed to support economic recovery [1]

The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut of the year yesterday after the central bank's highly anticipated two-day September policy meeting. The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4 to 4.25%. The 12 member board voted 11 to1 to cut rates and signal two more cuts are expected before the end of the year.Trump's newly appointed Fed Governor, Steven Myron, was the only dissenting vote. He was in favor of a larger halfpoint cut instead. Steve Ratner, ...