Core Insights - The October and November jobs reports indicate a struggling economy, with a loss of approximately 105,000 jobs in October and a gain of only 64,000 jobs in November, suggesting potential challenges for investors in the upcoming year [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact on Investments - The slowing macro economy may have limited impact on stock prices, but it could also lead to diverse effects on portfolios, including potential Fed rate cuts [1][2]. - Active ETFs provide flexibility in response to market shifts, particularly if the Fed decides to cut rates further in 2026 [2][4]. Group 2: Active ETFs and Investment Strategies - Active equity ETFs offer a range of options, including small-caps, value, large-caps, and growth, allowing for broader allocations and flexibility in portfolios [3][4]. - T. Rowe Price offers various active ETFs, such as the T. Rowe Price Total Return ETF (TOTR) for fixed income and the T. Rowe Price Equity Research ETF (TSPA) for equity exposure, appealing to investors navigating tough jobs data [5].

Market Trends & Economic Data - Investors are preparing for more information on the US economy, with stocks, bonds, and the dollar wavering [3] - The week will bring economic data releases, including inflation and jobs reports, influencing future Fed policy [4] - The US Treasury market is debating the extent of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [12] - Delayed announcements of monthly employment and inflation figures due to the US government shutdown are creating a void [13] - There's a debate on whether the economy is transitioning from deleveraging to re-leveraging [40] M&A and Corporate Strategy - The pursuit of Warner Brothers Discovery by Netflix is ongoing, with concerns about job losses and theatrical releases [5] - Netflix co-CEOs are trying to reassure employees about the company's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, reiterating no business overlap and studio closures [59] - Global M&A activity has been strong, with volumes at $45 trillion, setting up for 2026 to potentially exceed the record year in 2021 [78] - A potential Netflix acquisition of Warner Brothers could be a $827 billion deal [60] - iRobot filed for bankruptcy, with its common stock to be wiped out under the proposed Chapter 11 plan, listing between $100 million and $500 million in assets and liabilities [118][120] Energy & Utilities - National Grid is spending billions of dollars to prepare New York's electric grid for a generational shift, including data centers [93] - National Grid serves over 4 million customers in New York, delivering natural gas and electricity [97] - Cumulative power needs from companies wanting to connect to the New York grid over the next five years are estimated at about 10 gigawatts, tripling in size in one year [99][100] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is down 13%, at $5674 a barrel [92] Cryptocurrency - MicroStrategy acquired almost $1 billion in Bitcoin for a second straight week, despite the cryptocurrency falling [124] - Bitcoin is down 23%, at $86,432 [10][92] - Bitcoin is down about 30% from an all-time high of just over $126,000 in early October [126] Financial Markets Performance - The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all in the red [8][55][56][91][115] - The Bloomberg Mag Seven index is holding onto a gain of 4/10 of 1% [8] - The S&P 500 index is down 1/10 of 1%, lower by six at 620 [9] - The NASDAQ composite index is down 3/10 of 1%, while the Dow Industrials are down 2/10 of 1% [9] - The ten-year Treasury yield is currently at 417%, with the two-year at 350% [9] - Gold is up 4/10 of 1%, at $4314 the ounce [10] - The Russell 2000 index is declining, down 6/10 of 1% [55] - Gold is up $13 the ounce, at $4312, up 3/10 of 1% [56]

Core Viewpoint - Markets are anticipating significant updates this week that could influence stock trajectories through year-end and into 2026, particularly focusing on November jobs and inflation data [1]. Economic Data Summary - Major U.S. indexes experienced volatility at the start of the week, initially gaining before losing some momentum [2]. - The job market remains a central focus for the Federal Reserve, which recently cut rates by 25 basis points and is prioritizing labor market support over inflation control [3]. - The upcoming jobs report is particularly significant due to a delay caused by the government shutdown, with expectations of 50,000 payroll additions for November [7]. - Analysts suggest a "bad is good regime," where weaker jobs data could lead to bullish stock market reactions as it may prompt further monetary policy easing [4]. - The inflation report scheduled for Thursday is also critical, with expectations of 3.1% year-over-year growth in headline inflation and 3.0% growth in core inflation [7]. - A series of Federal Reserve speakers this week may further shape market expectations regarding interest rates for 2026 [6].

Group 1 - Delayed jobs and inflation data are expected to be released this week, which could impact market sentiment and economic forecasts [1] - The Supreme Court is set to make a decision regarding tariffs, which may have significant implications for trade policies and affected industries [1] - SpaceX is projected to have substantial growth opportunities, with potential service offerings anticipated in 2026 [1]

Market Trends - UK jobs data prompted traders to increase bets on Bank of England interest-rate cuts [1] - The pound retreated following the release of UK jobs data [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant selloff on Friday due to tariff commentary, impacting the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but showed signs of recovery over the weekend as optimism returned [2][3] - Key technical levels were breached, with the S&P 500 breaking its 20-day moving average and E-Mini S&P futures hitting the 50-day moving average [2] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its 13th day, with the market currently discounting its effects, although concerns about labor market impacts and federal worker payments are rising [8][9] - The CPI report is expected to be released on October 24th, which is crucial for social security adjustments, but there is uncertainty regarding the jobs data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy [12][14] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices dipped below $60 per barrel for the first time since May, influenced by US-China tensions and geopolitical issues, indicating potential economic slowing [13][14] - Despite rising gasoline demand, concerns persist regarding China's reduced oil imports and OPEC's potential quota increases, which could further pressure prices [15][16] - A bounce back in oil prices is anticipated, but the current volume and price action suggest a cautious outlook, with potential supply shocks if favorable monetary policies are enacted [18][19]

Chicago Fed President Goulsby on squawkbox this morning defending the validity of BLS data and the shortcomings of relying just on private sector sources. Joining us here at Post9 this morning to talk more about it, Goldman Sachs chief economist John Hotsi is who normally joins us on jobs Friday. A little bit different today.It's a jobs Friday except they're not jobs. Yes. Do you do you feel like you're flying blind or no.He seems to think that um BLS is still the gold standard. Oh, for sure. It's a signifi ...

Geopolitical Developments & Market Impact - A 20-point proposal for a Gaza ceasefire, agreed upon by U S President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, awaits Hamas approval, potentially impacting regional stability and oil markets [1][5][38] - Qatar's role as a key mediator between Israel and Hamas is crucial for the ceasefire, requiring a face-saving gesture, such as Israel expressing regret for a past attack [8][9][10] - The Israeli Shekel has strengthened against the USD by approximately 10% this year, reflecting the impact of geopolitical developments on local markets [46] - RBA (澳大利亚储备银行) holds cash rate at 36%, notes uncertainties in global environment and upside risks to inflation [40][41][42][43] Economic & Financial Market Trends - Looming U S government shutdown raises market risk, potentially delaying crucial jobs data release and impacting monetary policy assessment [2][3][23][25][44] - Gold hits record highs, massively outperforming Bitcoin, driven by uncertainty and a pullback in USD, with potential for further gains amid Fed rate cuts [3][4][23][32][33][44] - The market has aggressively priced in 3-4 rate cuts by June 2026, making upcoming jobs market data pivotal for determining monetary policy [27] - Potential tariffs on imports of timber and lumber, particularly impacting Canada, add to market uncertainty [23][39] - MSCI China is logging five-month gains, the longest streak since 2018, driven by better-than-expected PMI data and geopolitical signals [48] Energy Sector - Brent crude oil is slipping down by 08% ahead of the OPEC Plus meeting, where increased supply is expected [4] - The oil market is bearish due to well-supplied conditions, with focus on Iran snapback and Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to investment in gold over oil [52][53] - Afentra is cautious about oil price volatility, focusing on a strong balance sheet and strategic acquisitions [64][65][66] - Nigeria's government intervenes to resolve a clash between the petroleum and natural gas association and oil labor group, potentially impacting crude production of 650 thousand barrels a day [76][77][78]

Labor Market Data Concerns - Potential delays in the release of jobs data following a shutdown could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding the economy [1] - Over-reliance on a single report like the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is discouraged; the industry should consider private sector reports like ADP for a broader view of the labor market [2] - The threat of permanent firings, as opposed to temporary furloughs, could further weaken the labor market [2] - The H-1B visa issue adds another layer of complexity and potential disruption to labor market data [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The initial inclination is to proceed with the planned rate cut for October [3] - The possibility of a December rate cut is uncertain, depending on the resilience of economic growth and stickiness of inflation based on the latest data [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices declined as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to its highest level since September 11, impacting bullion priced in dollars [1][2] - Spot gold decreased by 0.7% to $3,736.16 per ounce, while silver fell after reaching over $44 per ounce earlier in the week [2] - Investors are awaiting key US inflation and jobs data, with expectations that the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation may have grown at a slower pace last month, which could support arguments for rate cuts [1]