Chicago Fed President Goulsby on squawkbox this morning defending the validity of BLS data and the shortcomings of relying just on private sector sources. Joining us here at Post9 this morning to talk more about it, Goldman Sachs chief economist John Hotsi is who normally joins us on jobs Friday. A little bit different today.It's a jobs Friday except they're not jobs. Yes. Do you do you feel like you're flying blind or no.He seems to think that um BLS is still the gold standard. Oh, for sure. It's a signifi ...

>> GOOD MORNING. THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING. U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU AGREED TO A 20-POINT PROPOSAL FOR A CEASE-FIRE.THE DEAL STILL HAS TO BERIA PROVED BY HAMAS. HE SAID ISRAEL WOULD NOT BE CONDUCT SIMILAR ATTACKS IN THE FUTURE. A SHUTDOWN LOOMS.VICE PRESIDENT J. D. VANCE SAYS HE BELIEVES THE U.S. GOVERNMENT IS HEADING FOR A SHUTDOWN.IT IS 5:00 A. M. HERE IN THE U.K. I’M HERE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.I’M JOUMANNA BERCETC ...

The first risk is that uh there's some delay in the release of jobs data next week which would be you know immediately after the shutdown is announced and it certainly does complicate matters for the Fed in terms of impact on the broader economy. These shutdowns tend to just be kind of drops of water in an ocean but it complicates the decision-m process. >> Everything of course depends on how long this is going to last in terms of the data. Yes, it's going to sort of mess us up in terms of data analysis.But ...

Group 1 - Gold prices declined as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to its highest level since September 11, impacting bullion priced in dollars [1][2] - Spot gold decreased by 0.7% to $3,736.16 per ounce, while silver fell after reaching over $44 per ounce earlier in the week [2] - Investors are awaiting key US inflation and jobs data, with expectations that the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation may have grown at a slower pace last month, which could support arguments for rate cuts [1]

Economic and Market Conditions - The U.S. stock markets have reached all-time highs, leading to increased investor anxiety due to the higher stakes involved [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts could benefit the economy by steepening the yield curve, which may encourage bank lending [1][3] - Despite the potential benefits of rate cuts, the U.S. economy does not urgently require them, as lending has already accelerated from 2.8% to 4.5% year-over-year [3] Manufacturing Reshoring - The prospect of reshoring manufacturing in the U.S. does not guarantee positive outcomes for U.S. industrial stocks, as market focus remains on earnings rather than production locations [4] - Reshoring involves significant upfront and ongoing costs, including compliance with stringent environmental regulations, which could negatively impact profit margins [4][5] - The reshoring process is lengthy and complex, often taking years due to investment, planning, and regulatory hurdles, making it speculative to base current investments on this trend [5] Employment Data Reliability - The reliability of jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is diminishing due to declining response rates from firms, leading to potential revisions in the data [7][9] - Monthly jobs data is often too volatile for sound investment decisions, as it typically reflects past conditions rather than current market realities [10] Social Security Funding Concerns - The proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)" could reduce Social Security funding by an estimated $169 billion over the next decade, potentially shifting the program's insolvency date from Q3 2034 to Q1 2034 [11][14] - Despite concerns about insolvency, it is important to note that annual revenues would still cover approximately 70% to 80% of benefits through 2100 [12] - The OBBBA tax cuts represent only 4% of Social Security's revenues, with the majority coming from payroll taxes, which remain unaffected by the bill [14]

Monetary Policy Outlook - Morgan Stanley indicates the Federal Reserve's decisions will be driven by CPI (Consumer Price Index) and jobs data [1] - The Fed's policy will not be guided by the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium [1]

The Trump administration is considering changes to how the federal government collects and reports jobs data, according to White House officials https://t.co/rzukW0tqPV ...

Labor Market & Economy - The labor market shows signs of weakening, with the prime age employment rate (25-54 years old) down approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, which is atypical for a strong economy [2] - College unemployment rates are increasing, suggesting that rationalizations of the jobs data, such as attributing it to immigration, may be flawed [3] - Real personal consumption has decreased in the first six months of the year, a fact that is not widely recognized [6] Consumer Spending & Housing - The housing sector is experiencing a recession, indicated by a sharp decline in single-family permits [6] - Consumers are financially vulnerable, with real spending declining, including a notable weakening in services [6][7] - Consumers may lack the capacity to absorb higher prices, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation as inflation numbers might worsen during the summer [4] - Nominal incomes are slowing, providing a solid basis for policymakers like Governor Waller [4] - Broad capital expenditure (capex) outside of AI technology is expected to be sluggish due to companies' less optimistic outlook [7]

Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management managing director Chris Toomey discusses market expectations for the coming weeks [1] - The discussion includes the implications of jobs data for the economy [1]

Market & Trade - Concerns arise about the trustworthiness of jobs data, especially with potential political influence [1][2] - Markets are seen as a crucial check on presidential actions, reacting to market movements [5] - Tariffs were perceived to be nearing conclusion, but recent events have introduced uncertainty [4] Economic Statistics & Federal Reserve - US economic statistics are vital for policymaking and maintaining confidence in the financial system [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is critical for the success and stability of US markets [7][8] - The process of compiling economic data involves multiple offices and steps, making manipulation difficult [11][12]