证券研究报告 可选消费 美国美妆市场观察：购买更"挑剔"， 分化更显著 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 27 日│中国内地 专题研究 25Q1-Q3 美国高端/大众美妆市场 yoy4%/5%（据 Circana），其中大众香 水香氛增长最强劲，而剔除此品类，高端整体表现较大众更优；消费者正压 缩"非必要型"消费支出（Ulta），但美妆标的并未演绎出简单的"Trade down"，品牌商尤为如此。ELF（平价彩妆）/ BBWI（个护香氛零售）/Inter parfumes（香氛）/科蒂（美妆）等中小玩家及若干医美企业（InMode/Allergan Aesthetics 等）业绩会中均提及美国市场整体疲弱；雅诗兰黛正努力恢复在 美流失的市场份额；K-beauty 在美表现突出。零售端，Ulta 同店增长表现 突出/上调指引；与此共振的是，大众零售（沃尔玛等）/折扣零售（TJX/ROSS 等）/美元店（Dollar Tree 等）线下零售商近期股价亦突出。 雅诗兰黛的"Beauty Reimagined"已有阶段性成效 美妆零售龙头 ULTA 同店增长强劲 因同店增长强劲（Q3yoy6.3%)，公司 FY2025 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Major Asian stock markets delivered impressive results in 2025, with South Korea, Japan, and Indonesia all recording double-digit gains. The South Korean KOSPI index surged nearly 76%, marking its largest increase since 1999 [1] - The Japanese TOPIX index closed at a record high, surpassing the peak from the 1989 bubble era, with a yearly increase of 22% [1][6] - The Indonesian Jakarta Composite Index rose approximately 22%, achieving its best performance since 2014 [1][10] Group 2: South Korea's Market Drivers - The KOSPI's performance was notably driven by semiconductor giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as well as strong performances in the defense and nuclear power sectors [1][2] - AI infrastructure investments emerged as a key growth driver, with companies like Hyosung Heavy Industries and Doosan Enerbility seeing stock increases of over 320% due to rising demand for data center power [4] - Analysts from major firms like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley predict further upside for the South Korean market, estimating at least a 20% increase in 2026, supported by strong earnings growth [5] Group 3: Japan's Market Dynamics - The TOPIX index's rise was attributed to a broadening buying base, with interest expanding from AI-related stocks to financial and domestic demand sectors [6][8] - The index experienced a significant drop earlier in the year due to tariff announcements but rebounded as trade war concerns eased and corporate earnings expectations improved [6] - Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed large caps for the first time since 2022, indicating an expanding market appeal [8] Group 4: Indonesia's Retail Investor Influence - The surge in the Indonesian stock market was primarily driven by local retail investors, who increased their participation significantly, despite a net outflow of $1 billion from foreign investors [10] - The number of retail investors in Indonesia grew fivefold to over 20 million, as they sought higher returns amid declining bond yields [10] - Analysts expect the Jakarta Composite Index to reach 11,000 points in the coming year, representing a 27% increase from current levels, supported by factors such as accelerated loan growth and low fixed-income returns [10]

Core Insights - Ulta Beauty's expansion into the South Korean beauty market is yielding positive results, significantly boosting sales and attracting new customers [1][3] - The company's K-beauty product assortment is resonating well with consumers, particularly in skincare, leading to a notable increase in net sales and same-store sales [1][3] Sales Performance - Ulta Beauty reported third-quarter net sales of $2.9 billion, reflecting a 12.9% increase year-on-year [3] - Same-store sales rose by 6.3% compared to the previous year [3] - The company's stock price increased by nearly 6% in after-hours trading and has risen approximately 33% over the past year [4] Market Trends - The K-beauty industry in the US reached a valuation of $2 billion in the year leading up to July 2025, marking a 37% growth from the previous year [4] - The appeal of K-beauty products is attributed to their affordability and high-quality offerings, which attract a younger demographic [4][5] Strategic Initiatives - Ulta Beauty is actively expanding its K-beauty brand portfolio, including exclusive partnerships with brands like Medicube, TIRTIR, Fwee, and Unleashia [2] - The company aims to secure exclusive sales partnerships with K-beauty brands ahead of the anticipated entry of South Korean retailer Olive Young into the US market [5]

Core Insights - Blackstone has announced an investment agreement with JUNO, a leading high-end hair care company in South Korea, which is expected to achieve sales revenue of over 1.5 billion yuan in 2024 [1][3] - The investment is estimated to value JUNO at approximately 800 billion Korean won (around 4.16 billion yuan), potentially marking the largest investment in the South Korean hairdressing industry this year [3][11] - JUNO's unique business model, which includes a salon chain, high-end hair product line, and hair education training, has attracted significant international capital [3][9] Company Overview - JUNO, established in 1982, operates over 180 salons and employs more than 3,000 staff, consistently ranking first in the Korean industry brand influence index for beauty salons for the past decade [3][9] - The company has three main business segments: Juno Hair (salon chain), Tria Milia (high-end hair products), and Juno ACADEMY (hair education) [3][9] - JUNO's strategy focuses on 100% self-operated salons to maintain quality and standards, which has resulted in a solid reputation despite slower expansion [3][9] Investment Rationale - Blackstone's investment is part of its strategy to capitalize on the growing global demand for K-beauty and to support JUNO's international expansion [7][11] - The partnership is expected to leverage Blackstone's global resources to enhance JUNO's market presence and operational capabilities [9][11] - Blackstone's investment in JUNO is its fourth private equity investment in South Korea, indicating a commitment to creating long-term value with leading industry players [8][9] Market Trends - The K-beauty sector is experiencing a surge, with South Korea's beauty exports projected to reach $10.2 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of over 21% [10][12] - The investment landscape for K-beauty is shifting from reliance on single hit products to a focus on sustainable business models and global resource integration [12] - Recent investments in other Korean beauty companies by global private equity firms highlight a trend towards building a comprehensive industry ecosystem [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of Korean cosmetics in the Chinese market and their resurgence in the U.S. market, highlighting the factors contributing to these trends. Group 1: Decline in Chinese Market - Korean cosmetics, once popular in China due to hit dramas and celebrity endorsements, have seen a significant decline, with Amorepacific reporting a 30% year-on-year drop in sales in the Greater China region [1] - In 2021, China accounted for 53% of Korea's cosmetics exports, but this figure is projected to drop to around 25% by 2024, with the U.S. market showing the largest growth, nearing 20% of total exports [1] Group 2: Resurgence in U.S. Market - Korean cosmetics are making a comeback in the U.S. market, aided by the popularity of the 10-step skincare routine and the influence of social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram [2][6] - Amorepacific has initiated brand revitalization efforts, including rebranding its high-end skincare line Sulwhasoo and hiring well-known celebrities as brand ambassadors, leading to double-digit sales growth for brands like Laneige [3][5] - The introduction of a wider range of product shades to cater to diverse skin tones has significantly boosted sales, as seen with the brand Tirtir, which expanded from 3 to 40 shades [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The influence of K-culture, including K-dramas and K-pop, continues to drive consumer interest in Korean cosmetics in the U.S. market [7] - The absence of tariffs on most Korean cosmetics due to the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement has made these products more competitively priced compared to local brands [7] - The "lipstick effect" suggests that consumers are more willing to try affordable and innovative Korean cosmetics during economic downturns [7] Group 4: Distribution and Marketing Strategies - Korean brands are increasingly focusing on offline retail experiences, signing long-term leases in key locations to attract local consumers [8] - Initiatives like the opening of Olive Young stores in the U.S. aim to enhance consumer exposure to Korean beauty products [10] Group 5: Challenges Ahead - Korean cosmetics companies face challenges such as stricter U.S. FDA regulations and potential tariff impacts due to changing political climates [11]