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东吴证券2026年汽车行业策略:坚定“破旧立新”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is at a new crossroads, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and the rise of smart technology. Commercial vehicles and two-wheelers are seen as promising investment areas. The company suggests two strategies: finding cyclical alpha varieties and embracing the next industrial trends of smart technology and robotics/AIDC [1] Automotive Sector Forecast for 2026 - Passenger vehicle sector: The industry will be impacted by a 5% new energy vehicle purchase tax, with an overall domestic demand expectation of 3.5%. Total domestic sales are projected at 22 million units (down 3.5% year-on-year), with new energy domestic sales at 13.2 million units (up 6.4% year-on-year). Total external sales are expected to be 6.41 million units (up 12.0% year-on-year), with new energy external sales at 3.52 million units (up 43.9% year-on-year) [1] - Heavy truck sector: Under neutral predictions, wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units (up 1.5% year-on-year), with domestic sales at 770,000 units (down 5.5% year-on-year) and external sales at 390,000 to 400,000 units (up 18.8% year-on-year) [1] - Bus sector: Continued resonance in domestic and external demand is expected, with export growth likely to maintain over 30%, and new energy export growth anticipated to be even faster. Domestic sales are projected at 81,000 units (up 3% year-on-year), with exports at 76,400 units (up 30% year-on-year) [1] - Motorcycle sector: Total industry sales are expected to reach 19.38 million units (up 14% year-on-year), with large-displacement motorcycles at 1.26 million units (up 31% year-on-year). Domestic sales are projected at 3.99 million units (down 9% year-on-year), while external sales are expected to be 15.39 million units (up 21% year-on-year) [1] Investment Opportunities - Passenger vehicle sector: Preferred stocks include Yutong Bus (600066) and attention to King Long Motor (600686) [2] - Motorcycle sector: Top picks are Chunfeng Power (603129) and Longxin General (603766) [2] - Heavy truck sector: Preferred stocks include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951) H and Weichai Power (000338) [2] - Passenger car sector: Top choice is BYD (002594), with Jianghuai Automobile (600418) as a preferred option [2] - Parts sector: Preferred stocks include Fuyao Glass (600660), Xingyu Co., Ltd. (601799), and Minth Group (002743) [2] Growth Opportunities - L4RoboX investment opportunities: Focus on the L4RoboX industry chain, with B-end software targets preferred over C-end hardware. Top picks include XPeng Motors and Horizon Robotics in H-shares, and Qianli Technology and Desay SV in A-shares [3] - Robotics/AIDC investment opportunities: The overseas Optimus V3 is expected to be finalized in 2026, with rapid capital progress in domestic robotics. Preferred stocks in the robotics and liquid cooling sectors include Top Group (601689) and Junsheng Electronics (600699) [3]