LED出口审批
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蔚蓝锂芯(002245):LED审批周期延长,Q3出口节奏略受影响,Q4旺季有望量利双升
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-28 13:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The approval cycle for LED products has been extended, slightly affecting export rhythm in Q3, but a significant increase in both volume and profit is expected in Q4 [9] - Q3 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82% [9] - The company anticipates a strong Q4 with an expected shipment of over 200 million units, representing a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase, leading to an annual shipment of 700 million units, a year-on-year increase of 60% [9] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 6.756 billion yuan in 2024, 8.361 billion yuan in 2025, and 9.722 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.38%, 23.75%, and 16.29% respectively [1][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 487.84 million yuan in 2024, 724.87 million yuan in 2025, and 1 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 246.43%, 48.59%, and 37.97% respectively [1][10] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.42 yuan in 2024, 0.63 yuan in 2025, and 0.87 yuan in 2026 [1][10] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 18.43 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 21.26 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 43.59 for 2024, 29.34 for 2025, and 21.26 for 2026 [10] Operational Insights - The company shipped nearly 180 million units in Q3, maintaining a stable quarter-on-quarter performance [9] - The gross margin for Q3 was 19.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The company has seen a decrease in operating expenses, with a total of 460 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 1.9% year-on-year [9]