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昆仑能源(00135):2025年中报点评:售气价差回落、补贴确认减少导致业绩承压,DPS提升
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-22 03:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kunlun Energy is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's mid-year performance for 2025 showed a revenue of 97.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.4% to 3.161 billion yuan. The decline in performance is attributed to a drop in gas sales price margins and reduced subsidy confirmations [7] - The company has adjusted its retail gas volume growth guidance for 2025 from +8% to +5%, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7] - The company benefits from strong backing from PetroChina, which holds 56.05% of its shares, providing resource security for its operations [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 177.726 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 194.158 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 3.80% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 5.682 billion yuan in 2023A to 6.061 billion yuan in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.70% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.70 yuan per share in 2025E, with a P/E ratio of 9.65 [1] Business Performance - The gas sales segment reported a revenue of 80.078 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, but a decline in tax profit by 10.5% to 4.477 billion yuan [7] - Retail gas sales volume increased by 2.2% to 16.666 billion cubic meters, while wholesale gas sales volume rose by 22.6% to 12.429 billion cubic meters [7] - The exploration and production segment saw a revenue decline of 16.3% to 0.73 billion yuan, with a significant drop in tax profit by 64.9% [7]