July 28, 2025 06:47 PM GMT US Economics | North America Employment Report Preview: Slower hiring still coincides with low unemployment The underlying pace of payrolls is slowing. For July, we expect payrolls and private payrolls rise 100k. AHE 0.3%. We forecast the U3 rate inches up to 4.2%, but is even with a year earlier. Two questions: will LFPR put more downward pressure on the U3 rate and will state education payrolls reverse? Exhibit 1: Employment forecast details | Employment Report: Forecasts & Rece ...

The May non-farm payrolls report was stronger than expected, but it still reinforced the idea that the employment landscape is losing momentum. While the headline data was stronger than expected, it was still lower than last month's figure, which was revised even lower. Combined with the strong wage growth figure and a lower labor force participation rate, this data could signal that employers are pulling back on hiring in response to tighter financial conditions, but also incentivizing their current labor ...