Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates have remained stable in a narrow range of 6.2% to 6.3%, with expectations that they will not change significantly in the near future [1][5]. Economic Context - The current economic situation features a weakening labor market alongside persistent inflation, complicating the outlook for mortgage rates [2][4]. - Government shutdowns have disrupted the release of key economic reports, limiting the ability to assess trends affecting mortgage rates [2][3]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been cutting benchmark interest rates, but inflation remains above the 2% target, leading to a divided outlook among committee members regarding future interest rate direction [4][5]. - Economists predict only minor fluctuations in mortgage rates due to the mixed economic and policy environment [5][6]. Market Expectations - The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts mortgage rates to remain between 6% and 6.5% over the next few years, while other economists expect rates to average around 6.3% by 2026 [5]. - There is a consensus that substantial drops in mortgage rates are unlikely unless significant economic changes occur [6]. Market Dynamics - Mortgage rates typically begin to decline before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, as seen in the past summer when rates fell despite the Fed's rate cuts [7].

Market Overview - The markets are experiencing upward momentum as inflation pressures ease and rate cuts are anticipated [1] - Despite this positive trend, stretched valuations and tariff uncertainties are causing concern among investors [1] Economic Context - The current economic situation has significantly improved since 2022, which saw the fastest increase in interest rates in 40 years due to unprecedented inflation and fiscal stimulus [2] - Central banks have managed to control inflation without severely impacting the labor market, which is historically unusual [3] Future Outlook - The trajectory into 2026 and 2027 appears promising, with expectations of returning to a more stable economic environment [2]

Please weigh in weigh in on the number if you could not all of the other part of it. >> Sure. Uh first happy holidays all and thank you for everybody being on the program. uh on the on the jobless claims numbers um you know I think you have to look at the four-week average obviously given the volatility and on that note on initial you're down about a percentage point or almost two percentage points year-over-year and continuing claims are up a little bit about 1 and a.5% but those aren't very concerning num ...

Is the labor market getting worse for employers, or for job seekers? Yes. And forecasters expect that to continue into the new year. Several trends have combined to create a labor market that isn't working out well for anyone. Job seekers are seeing fewer openings and staying unemployed longer—the long-term unemployment rate hit its highest since November 2021 in September. Yet, employers are having a hard time finding qualified candidates, with certain industries, such as homebuilding, suffering from labor ...

23 December 2025 | 4:56PM EST Economics Research US ECONOMICS ANALYST 2026 Consumer Outlook: Solid Growth Supported by a Fiscal Boost Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n Consumer spending grew at a strong 3.5% pace ...

December 22, 2025 12:59 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Fed speak: The policy rate should head lower. The question is when and by how much Fed speakers last week generally agreed that the funds rate will move lower. Governors Waller and Miran made clear cases for near-term rate cuts while Presidents Bostic and Goolsbee saw a need to ensure inflation was on a path to 2%. President Williams had a preference to wait for clearer data. Key Takeaways | M Fed speak: The policy rate | Chief US Econom ...

>> AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, WE RAN THIS THREE PART SEGMENT ON MY 25 QUESTIONS FOR 20 2025. LOOK, I CAME UP WITH FOUR BIG MACRO QUESTIONS, ONE QUESTION FOR EACH OF THE 11 MAJOR SECTORS AND OF COURSE, TEN TECH SPECIFIC QUESTIONS. SO NOW THAT THE YEAR IS NEARLY OVER.LET'S TALK ABOUT THE ANSWERS. FIRST QUESTION, DOES THE YIELD ON THE TEN YEAR TREASURY GO TO 4% OR 5% FIRST OR NEITHER. AT THE TIME, THE TENURE WAS SITTING AT JUST OVER 4.5%.AND THIS IS ONE WHERE WE GOT A DEFINITIVE ANSWER BECAUSE THE TEN ...

The Federal Reserve expects gross domestic product to grow quickly in 2026, faster than what they thought just months ago. Some of that may be AI, just also, I think productivity has just been almost structurally higher for several years now. We have had a boost in productivity growth. And he was pointing out that that boost in productivity had occurred even before AI was a big thing on the scene.Economists believe AI could dramatically change how Americans work. In terms of policy makers concerns, employme ...

All right, let's get to your word of the day. Uh, it's an interesting one. Ramp. What are you talking about? >> Well, I you know, I wrote that uh I wrote a piece earlier last early last week talking about the uh the QE that's coming into the system, the reserve management purpose uh purchases, which I've called reserve asset management purchases because they uh they are ramping the market. I think that pe that people haven't fully digested how dovish the last Federal Reserve uh open market meeting was. Uh n ...

The U.S. labor market is ending 2025 on a sour note: Many companies trimmed head count and wage gains slowed. https://t.co/OdHqTYmxBR ...