We're pleased to welcome Torsten Slach. He is chief economist at Apollo for this macro conversation. And, Torsten, you heard what Mike was saying about inflation expectations, and we see that in some measures. What are you thinking about inflation expectations.Because there's market based measures. There's also survey based measures. It's not really time to worry until everything points in the same direction.Right. Well, and the key issue is that, of course, headline inflation is showing signs of higher inf ...

Dollarama shares drop as annual sales forecast misses estimates Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock Dollarama Inc (TSX:DOL) saw its shares fall more than 7% on Tuesday after the company forecast annual sales largely below expectations, signaling softer demand as consumers become more selective amid persistent inflation and a weakening labor market. The Canadian discount retailer expects comparable store sales growth of 3% to 4% in fiscal 2027, below analysts’ consensus of 3.9%. The guidance ...

So the market, the labor market is just not strong enough to worry about it. I think the labor market still could use additional support for monetary policy and that's why I dissented last meeting as I have continued to send for all previous meetings. How lonely were you at that committee meeting just last week.Voted for a 25 basis point reduction in the face of an energy shock. How robust was the conversation around the table. Look, I think a lot of people around the table, like me, were hesitant to draw c ...

We heard from the Federal Reserve and from Chair Powell this week, and maybe the headline is the uncertainty because of the war in Iran. He was very careful in saying "We don't know what the effects will be, big, small or in between. " How does one make policy in the face of that kind of uncertainty? -Well, you know, writ large, that's the job of the Fed generally. The Fed is always in a position of uncertainty. That uncertainty may be greater from moment to moment. It's obviously at a fairly high level now ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing war and rising oil prices have led to a shift in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with Federal Reserve officials reassessing their positions on monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions and Labor Market - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller expressed caution about the current economic conditions, noting a weakening labor market with nearly no net job growth in 2025 and a 92,000 drop in nonfarm payrolls in February [4][5]. - Waller indicated that if the labor market continues to show negative trends, it may necessitate a reevaluation of the need for interest rate cuts later in the year [3][5]. - The labor force is not expanding, resulting in "net zero" job growth, which keeps the unemployment rate unchanged despite job losses [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations have shifted, with traders now almost completely dismissing the possibility of rate reductions through 2026 and into 2027, a change from earlier expectations of two or three cuts this year [2]. - Waller's previous advocacy for rate cuts has been tempered by recent labor market developments and the uncertainty surrounding the war, leading to a more conservative approach [3][6]. - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that the Fed can implement three rate cuts this year, which would lower the benchmark federal funds rate below the neutral level [6][7].

We had FOMC today and the Fed is in a difficult spot. You know, the problem that the Fed has is that we've seen energy spike energy prices really start to spike. Now remember, we know that business cycles, the beginning of the end of the business cycle historically is when energy spikes in a late business cycle environment.But in a late business cycle environment, oil spiking is a very, very, very bad thing. Now the Fed's hands are kind of tied. Powell even kind of let a slip today.I think he accidentally s ...

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims fell to 205K from an estimated 215K, marking the lowest level since early January, indicating a robust labor market [2] - Continuing Claims remained below 1.9 million for the 10th consecutive week, coming in at 1.857 million, down from a revised 1.860 million the previous week [3] - The Philly Fed manufacturing survey reached 18.1, the highest since September of the previous year, reflecting three consecutive months of positive growth [4] Company Earnings Reports - Alibaba (BABA) reported a 47% decline in earnings to $1.01 per share, with shares down 7% in pre-market trading, compounding year-to-date losses to approximately 15% [5] - Darden Restaurants (DRI) met earnings expectations with $2.95 per share and revenues of $3.35 billion, but shares fell 4% due to rising gas prices affecting outlook [6] - Duluth Holdings (DLTH) experienced a 21% surge in pre-market trading after reporting earnings of $0.23 per share, exceeding expectations by 155.6%, with revenues of $215.9 million also outperforming [7] - FedEx (FDX) is expected to report fiscal Q3 earnings with anticipated year-over-year earnings growth of -8.2% and revenue growth of +6.45%, with shares up 20% year to date [8]

>> THE FED HOLDING INTEREST RATES STEADY IN A RANGE OF THREE AND A HALF TO 3.25%, THAT WAS, AS EXPECTED, THE LATEST SO-CALLED DOT PLOT OF FED MEMBERS RATE PROJECTIONS, INDICATING THAT THE CENTRAL BANK COULD CUT RATES ONCE THIS YEAR AND ONCE NEXT YEAR BY 25 BASIS POINTS EACH TIME. OFFICIALS SEE A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE OF GDP GROWTH THIS YEAR THAN THEY PREVIOUSLY DID. BUT THEY ALSO SEE HIGHER INFLATION GROWTH IN 2027 PROJECTED A 2.3%.THAT'S HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2% FORECAST. FED CHAIR JAY POWELL SAYING THAT ...

So good news on the labor market front. Just 205,000 jobless claims last week, as you pointed out. So the low, higher, low fired economy continues.And Jay Powell suggested that the labor market might be in better shape than we think at this point because the unemployment rate is not moving a lot. We did see the Philadelphia Fed index come out much stronger than expected at 18.1%, up from 16 three. The expectation was it was going to be cut in half to just 8.0%.However, prices paid rise to 44.7% from 38.9%. ...

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