Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent land supply announcement in Beijing for 2026, highlighting the unique characteristics of the land parcels and the implications of the supply logic in the real estate market [2][3]. Group 1: Land Supply Announcement - On February 3, 2026, the first round of land supply was announced, involving five residential land parcels totaling 16 hectares and a planned construction area of 240,000 square meters [2]. - The five parcels include locations in Dongcheng, Fengtai, Shunyi, and Changping districts, but they did not enter the pre-application phase, leading to skepticism about the reliability of assessments made by media [2][3]. Group 2: Changes in Supply Logic - The announcement removed the "round" designation from the land supply list, making it difficult to identify which parcels are new for 2026 without detailed examination [4][5]. - Currently, there are 15 parcels listed in the supply plan, with 10 of them carried over from the 2025 list, indicating a significant amount of land being held [6][7]. Group 3: Supply Volume and Market Implications - The total area of land available for supply in 2026 is 51.42 hectares, with a planned construction area of 1,057,300 square meters, suggesting a substantial supply volume [10][11]. - The supply plan for 2026 is set between 200 to 240 hectares, with the first round accounting for only 6.7% to 8% of the total planned supply [12][13]. Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - The anticipated land transaction amount for the first quarter of 2026 is projected to be only 6.49 billion yuan, a stark contrast to the previous year's first quarter, which saw transactions totaling 56.937 billion yuan [16]. - The overall land supply for 2026 is expected to decrease by approximately 15.4%, reflecting a strategic reduction in land availability amid high inventory levels in the market [18][19].

Group 1 - Beijing's land auction started smoothly this year, with three residential plots sold for a total of 5.762 billion yuan on February 3 [2] - The three plots are located in Shijingshan District, Tongzhou District, and Shunyi District, all outside Beijing's traditional core areas, and were sold at the base price [2] - The new Shougang core area plot was acquired by Shougang Real Estate for 1.39 billion yuan, with a floor price of approximately 38,000 yuan per square meter [4] Group 2 - China Railway Investment Construction Group acquired the new National Exhibition Phase III plot in Shunyi District for 2.81 billion yuan, marking its first land acquisition in Beijing [5] - A consortium including Beijing Beitou Real Estate and Beijing Xinhangcheng Development acquired the Songzhuang plot in Tongzhou District for 1.562 billion yuan, with a floor price of 17,878 yuan per square meter [5] - The overall land auction results indicate a trend of lower prices compared to the high premium bidding seen in early 2025, reflecting a "reduced quantity and increased price" pattern in Beijing's land market [6] Group 3 - The first round of planned residential land supply for 2026 includes plots in Dongcheng District, Fengtai District, Shunyi District, and Changping District, with particular attention on the Dongcheng plot due to its advantageous location [7] - The Dongcheng plot is part of a redevelopment project, covering approximately 1.2 hectares with a planned building area of about 25,200 square meters [7] - The easing of housing purchase restrictions in late 2025, particularly for families with multiple children, has led to an increase in buyer interest, with January's second-hand housing transactions up by 20.8% year-on-year [8]