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创制农药行业专题:中国创制农药有望迎来“Me too ”到“Me better ”跨越
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-12 11:21
Investment Rating - The report rates the pesticide industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][5] Core Insights - The Chinese pesticide industry is expected to transition from "Me too" to "Me better" in terms of innovation and product development [1][2] - The global pesticide market is projected to reach approximately $77.2 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.35% over the next decade [1][13] - Non-patented pesticides dominate the market, accounting for 93% of the global pesticide market share, while patented pesticides hold only 7% [1][14] Summary by Sections Pesticide Market Overview - The global pesticide market is expected to be approximately $77.2 billion in 2024, with agricultural pesticides making up $70.1 billion and non-agricultural pesticides $7.1 billion [1][13] - The market share of herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides in the global crop protection market is 47.20%, 24.96%, and 24.97% respectively [1][13] New Pesticide Development Challenges - The difficulty of developing new pesticides has increased significantly, with the average cost of bringing a new pesticide to market now around $300 million and taking approximately 12 years [1][45] - The number of new active ingredients introduced globally every decade has decreased, indicating a growing challenge in pesticide innovation [1][43] China's Pesticide Industry Strength - China has become the world's largest pesticide producer and exporter, with nearly 70% of global active ingredient production and 90% of its production being exported [2][2] - From 2020 to 2024, China accounted for 51.61% of the new pesticides developed globally, establishing itself as a key player in pesticide innovation [2][2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic pesticide companies that are actively advancing new pesticide development, including: - Yangnong Chemical: Holds 12 new pesticides with complete independent intellectual property rights [3][4] - Lier Chemical: Promoting patented plant immune activator [3][4] - Limin Chemical: Collaborating with BASF to apply AI in pesticide development [3][4] - Jiangshan Chemical: Preparing for the industrialization of a new herbicide [3][4] Key Company Profit Forecasts - Yangnong Chemical: Rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of 3.33 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 19.7 [4] - Lier Chemical: Rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of 0.62 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 21.0 [4] - Limin Chemical: Rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of 1.26 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 12.7 [4] - Jiangshan Chemical: Rated "Outperform the Market" with an estimated EPS of 1.41 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 16.1 [4]