2025 年 07 月 16 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 最新报告摘要 核心业务延续增长韧性，关注 AI 生态价值释放--腾讯控股/社交Ⅱ(00700/217208) 点评报告（港股美股） 海外两机需求爆发，铬盐、高温合金及零部件迎来机遇--行业动态研究 加大即时零售投入、利润短期承压--阿里巴巴-W/互联网电商(09988/214506) 点评报告（港股美股） 核心产品景气回升，中报业绩预计同比大幅改善--利民股份/农化制品(002734/212208) 公司点评 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、核心业务延续增长韧性，关注 AI 生态价值释放--腾讯控股/社交Ⅱ (00700/217208) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 分析师：尹芮 S0350522110001 1、主要财务指标前瞻：我们预计公司 2025Q2 实现营业收入 1796 亿元（YoY+11%）。其中增值服务 883 亿 元（YoY+12%），增值服务中游戏业务 564 亿元（YoY+16%）、社交网络 319 亿元 ...

Group 1 - Aerospace Science and Technology expects a net profit of 68 million to 95 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 1628.83% to 2315.27% compared to the same period last year [1] - Huaxia Airlines anticipates a net profit of 220 million to 290 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 741.26% to 1008.93% year-on-year [1] - Shida Group forecasts a net loss of 44 million to 65 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss [1] Group 2 - Jiaao Environmental Protection expects a net loss of 70 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [3] - Haima Automobile predicts a net loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 152 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Huaibei Mining anticipates a net profit of approximately 1.027 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 65% year-on-year [3] Group 3 - Quanfu Automobile expects a net loss of 155 million to 185 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [5] - Gaode Infrared signed a procurement agreement worth 879 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact its operating performance for the year [5] - Zhongchen Co. won a project from Southern Power Grid worth 379 million yuan, representing 12.26% of its audited revenue for 2024 [5] Group 4 - Daheng Technology anticipates a net loss of 406,000 yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 988,250 yuan in the same period last year [6] - Dazhongnan expects a net profit of 6.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a recovery from a loss of 15.325 million yuan last year [6] - Xianfeng Holdings projects a net profit of 34 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 524.58% to 671.53% [7] Group 5 - Shuangxiang Co. expects a net profit of 115 million to 150 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 128.1% to 197.53% year-on-year [8] - ST Xintong anticipates a net loss of 67 million to 97 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [9] - Jishi Media forecasts a net loss of 187 million to 233 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [10] Group 6 - Suli Co. expects a net profit of 72 million to 86 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1008.39% to 1223.91% [11] - Wanli Co. anticipates a net loss of 19 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 12.9238 million yuan last year [12] - Langzi Co. projects a net profit of 22 million to 26 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 31.74% to 55.69% year-on-year [14] Group 7 - Changjiang Securities expects a net profit of 1.652 billion to 1.81 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 110% to 130% [15] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 85 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94% [16] - Chenhua Co. plans to invest 30 million yuan in financial products with an expected annual yield of 3.20% [16] Group 8 - Zijing Mining expects a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of about 54% year-on-year [28] - Limin Co. anticipates a net profit of 26 million to 28 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% [29] - Huazhong Securities expects a net profit of 1.035 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a growth of 44.94% year-on-year [30]

财信证券：期待"反内卷"行情演绎 8月份之前，在宏观层面并无明显风险事件，市场正处于新一轮做多窗口期，叠加投资者情绪改善、增 量资金入场，指数仍有上行动能，虽然面临强压力位的限制，但预计仍以震荡偏强运行为主，投资容错 率将提升。在市场宽基指数并未明显破位时，可保持较高权益市场仓位，顺势而为。虽然宏观经济及政 策未见明显拐点，但"反内卷"政策如落实到位，将缓解"增收不增利"的困境，指数仍可能进入新一轮戴 维斯双击阶段、并向上走出震荡调整区间。 A股三大股指集体高开，沪指涨0.09%，创业板指涨0.02%。盘面上，贵金属、稀土永磁、证券等板块涨 幅居前。 机构看后市 投资建议：(1)反内卷相关方向，如光伏、锂电、汽车、钢铁、建材、煤炭、猪肉；(2)稳定币相关方 向，如金融科技、券商。(3)有色方向，如稀土、贵金属(尤其是白银)；(4)中报预告有望超预期的标的， 如海外算力、风电、航运、创新药、新消费、军工等。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：徐文强。 华安证券：继续看好银行保险趋势性行情 地产阶段性估值修复仍有较大空间 海外关税风险可能加剧，但A股正在逐步脱敏。二季度经济数据即将发布，预计弱于一季度但可能 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 利民股份（002734.SZ） 优于大市 多个主营产品价格上涨，公司半年度业绩大幅改善 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，业绩实现同比大幅增长。预计 2025 年上 半年利民股份实现归母净利润 2.6-2.8 亿元，同比增长 719.25%-782.27%； 实 现 扣 除 非 经 常 性 损 益 后 的 净 利 润 2.47-2.68 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 770.37%-844.37%。结合公司第一季度归母净利润 1.08 亿元，第二季度公司 预计实现归母净利润中枢约 1.62 亿元，环比继续高增。公司业绩大幅增长 的主要原因是公司主要产品销量和价格同比上涨、毛利率提升，以及参股公 司业绩上涨带来投资收益增加。 核心产品景气度持续向好，盈利能力增强。据百川盈孚，2024 年 3 月中旬至 今，甲维盐和阿维菌素市场价格分别从 50、35 万元/吨上涨至 70.5、50 万 元/吨；2025 年 3 月以来，代森锰锌的市场价格从 2.35 万元/吨上涨至 2.5 万元/吨；百菌清市场价格已从 2024 年 1 月的 1.8 万元/吨上涨至 2025 年 7 ...

策略研究 周度报告 本轮地产行情还有多大空间？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-13 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 主要观点 [Table_Summary] ⚫ 海外关税风险可能加剧，但 A 股正在逐步脱敏。二季度经济数据即 将发布，预计弱于一季度但可能好于市场预期，对政治局会议政策 期待预计后延，市场波动将有所加剧。配置上，周五银行大跌并非 是稳市资金所为，银行 ...

公司公告汇总 海利尔药业集团股份有限公司发布了2024年年度权益分派实施公告，主要内容如下： A股每股现金红利0.5元。 股权登记日为2025年7月17日，除权（息）日及现金红利发放日均为2025年7月18日。 分配方案为每股派发现金红利0.5元（含税），共计派发现金红利169,949,168元。 无限售条件流通股的红利委托中国结算上海分公司派发，自行发放对象包括张爱英、葛尧伦等。 扣税说明：对于持有无限售条件流通股的个人股东及证券投资基金，持股期限超过1年的，股息红 利所得暂免征收个人所得税；持股1年以内（含1年）的，待个人转让股票时根据持股期限计算应 纳税额。对于持有有限售条件流通股的自然人股东及证券投资基金，解禁前取得的股息红利由公 司按10%的税率代扣代缴个人所得税。对于QFII股东，按10%的税率代扣代缴企业所得税。对于 香港联交所投资者，公司按照10%的税率代扣代缴所得税。对于其他机构投资者和法人股东，实 际派发现金红利为税前每股人民币0.5元。 咨询方式：联系部门为董事会办公室，联系电话为0532-58659169。 截至2025年7月11日收盘，海利尔（603639）报收于14.3元，较上周的 ...

公司公告汇总 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 截至2025年7月11日收盘，湖南海利（600731）报收于7.09元，较上周的7.0元上涨1.29%。本周，湖南 海利7月8日盘中最高价报7.23元。7月7日盘中最低价报6.96元。湖南海利当前最新总市值39.61亿元，在 农化制品板块市值排名39/57，在两市A股市值排名3693/5149。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总：湖南海利调整回购股份价格上限为不超过人民币9.44元/股 湖南海利化工股份有限公司调整了回购股份的价格上限，从不超过人民币9.64元/股（含）调整为不超 过人民币9.44元/股（含），回购价格调整起始日为2025年7月4日。此前，公司于2025年4月23日召开第 十届董事会十九次会议，审议通过了以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的议案，回购股份用于后续实施 股权激励计划，回购价格不超过人民币9.64元/股，拟回购股份数量不低于838万股且不超过1676万股， 预计用于回购的资金总额不超过16156.64万元，实施期限为自公司董事会审议通过回购方案之日起12个 ...

基础化工/农化制品 公 司 研 究 云图控股（002539.SZ） 2025 年 07 月 10 日 复合肥龙头完善上游合成氨、磷矿石等原料布局，广 西贵港项目打开未来成长空间 投资评级：买入（维持） ——公司信息更新报告 | 日期 | 2025/7/9 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 10.04 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.12/6.40 | | 总市值(亿元) | 121.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 88.67 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.08 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.83 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 115.13 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 云图控股 沪深300 | 金益腾（分析师） | 张晓锋（分析师） 宋梓荣（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn songzirong@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S079052002 ...

Group 1 - Morning Light Biological expects a net profit of 202.0 million to 232.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 900.0 million to 960.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [1] - Youfa Group forecasts a net profit of 277.0 million to 307.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 151.69% to 178.93% [1] Group 2 - Torch Electronics projects a net profit of approximately 247.0 million to 280.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 50.36% to 70.45% [3] - Zhiwei Intelligent expects a net profit of 91.98 million to 112.43 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 62.85% to 99.06% [4] - Youhao Group anticipates a net profit of 12.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51% [5] Group 3 - Nami Technology expects a net profit of 61.0 million to 73.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 35% to 62% [7] - Xinda Co. forecasts a net profit of 130.0 million to 150.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 2443.43% to 2834.73% [8] Group 4 - Shaanxi Coal Industry reported a coal production of 14.36 million tons in June, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07% [9] - Huanxu Electronics announced a consolidated revenue of 4.587 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decline of 1.23% [10] Group 5 - Huadian International successfully issued 2.0 billion yuan in medium-term notes with a maturity of 3+N years and a coupon rate of 1.89% [20] - Zhongmin Energy reported a total power generation of 1.405 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.89% [20] Group 6 - Huaxia Biotech passed the FDA inspection with zero deficiencies, covering six major systems [21] - Ruikeda's application for convertible bond issuance has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [22] Group 7 - Dafu Technology plans to invest no more than 100 million yuan in Anhui Yunta [42] - Tongda Co. won a bid for a project valued at 180.3 million yuan from the Southern Power Grid [46]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].