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碳酸锂日评:国内碳酸锂5月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量初现下降-20250514
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 06:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, and the price of lithium carbonate is likely to fall rather than rise. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out short positions when the price rebounds. Pay attention to the support level around 30,000 - 63,000 and the resistance level around 68,000 - 73,000/75,000 [5] Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Price and Volume Data**: On May 13, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract decreased by 96,901 hands, while the open interest increased by 9,895 hands. The inventory increased by 93 tons [1] - **Spread and Basis Data**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts decreased by 200 yuan, and the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) increased by 820 yuan [1] 2. Lithium Spot Market - **Lithium Ore and Lithium Compound Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and various lithium compounds such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of decline or stability on May 13, 2025, compared to the previous day [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The price differences between different grades of lithium compounds also changed. For example, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan [1] 3. Industry News - **Project Construction**: On May 10, 2020, the 2GWh lithium iron phosphate energy - storage battery manufacturing project of Zhejiang Jiaxing Aolifu Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. in Wudalianchi Economic Development Zone, Heilongjiang Province, with an investment of 780 million yuan, is targeted to be put into production by the end of October this year. Tianci Materials is actively promoting local production capacity construction in the United States and Morocco to expand overseas markets for electrolytes and hexafluorophosphate [2] - **Tariff Policy**: On May 10, the China - US joint statement on the economic and trade meeting indicated a general reduction in tariffs on China. The import tariffs on Chinese automotive and non - automotive lithium batteries in the US decreased to 8.1% and about 11% respectively, which is a significant positive for the lithium - battery industry's exports to the US [3] 4. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: The 30,000 - ton wet - process project of Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes plant may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium ore and an increase in production or imports in May. The production of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo inspections, and new production capacities are planned to be built [4] - **Demand Side**: The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate with different production processes in China is 11,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton, and the production and inventory in May may increase. The production of some lithium - battery materials such as cobalt - containing compounds may also change due to various factors [4][5]