碳酸锂日报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2511 合约跌 0.3%至 79380 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1400 元/吨至 82500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1400 元/吨至 80200 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 160 元/吨至 77330 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 640 吨至 25630 吨。 2. 基本面来看，供应端生产小幅放缓，减量主要还是由于云母停产所带来的，后续来看，随着前期价 格走强和海外进口的增加，锂辉石提锂依旧有望持续增加，对于供应来看，有更多的锂矿转化为碳 酸锂的形式存在，但需要注意的是，目前矿价成交价格维持高位，对碳酸锂价格仍有一定支撑；需 求端 8 月合计需求环比增加 6%，9 月迎来传统旺季，下游排产或表现依旧景气，叠加客供比例下 降，下游备货意愿较强。库存方面，社会库存维持 14.1 万吨水平，但呈现出两周小幅去库状态，且 结构上显现出来下游采购行为增加。 3. 已知资源项目的生产问题 ...

政策层面为格林美等企业的赴港上市提供了有力支持。中国证监会2024年4月发布的《5项资本市场对港合作措施》明确表示，支持内地行业龙头企业赴香港 上市，利用两个市场、两种资源规范发展。在海外上市不确定性增加的背景下，港交所降低H股最低发行门槛，境内企业赴港的融资渠道进一步疏通。 财务方面，格林美近年大体上呈业绩增长态势，其2024年营业收入为332亿元，同比增长8.75%；净利润10.20亿元，同比增长9.19%。其中，三元材料业务实 现营业收入257.62亿元，同比增长 10.24%，占总营收的77.6%；电池回收业务实现营业收入74.37亿元，同比增长3.87%，占营收的22.4%。 在内地企业赴港上市的热潮下，动力电池回收企业格林美也计划开启"A+H"双融资模式。8月24日晚，格林美（002340.SZ）发布公告称，公司已先后召开董 事会、监事会，审议并通过了赴港发行H股并在香港联交所主板上市的相关议案，这标志着其H股上市筹划工作正式启动。 格林美成立于2001年，总部位于深圳，其核心业务聚焦于"电池材料"与"电池回收"两大板块。近年来，随着动力电池退役潮来临，格林美的电池回收业务快 速增长。数据显示，格 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为19138吨，环比减少4.21%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为93640吨，环比减少1.51%,上周三元材料样本企业 库存为17617吨，环比增加1.86%。 供给端，2025年7月碳酸锂产量为81530实物吨，预测下月产量为84200实物吨，环比增加 3.27%,2025年7月碳酸锂进口量为13845实物吨，预测下月进口量为18500实物吨，环比增加 33.62%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度 环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，需求主导局面 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply contraction concern persists, and the downside space for lithium carbonate prices is limited. In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [1][4][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate prices opened high and closed low, with a weekly decline of 7.39%. Trading volume reached 4.32 million lots (-310,000), and open interest reached 362,300 lots (-38,800). The basis premium was 4,940 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica production was 16,100 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. Lithium concentrate imports rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [12][16]. 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [19]. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. In July, lithium carbonate imports dropped to 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. In July, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [25][27]. 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the production was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3%. In July, lithium hydroxide exports were 1,248 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 86.3% [33]. 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 75,886 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [36]. 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary material production was 16,565 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. In July, imports increased and exports decreased [39]. 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the production was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In July, exports increased [42]. 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the production was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [43]. 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In August, electrolyte production was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In July, exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [50]. 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In July, power battery production was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8%. Power battery installations were 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [53]. 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. Sales were 1.262 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [56]. 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In August, energy storage battery production was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9%. In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [61]. 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. China's micro - computer production was 25.52 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [64]. 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices declined. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by $53/ton, and the price of lithium mica dropped by 190 yuan/ton [68]. 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 713 tons. Structurally, smelter inventory decreased by 2,847 tons, downstream inventory increased by 3,224 tons, and other inventory decreased by 1,090 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 1,441 tons, and ternary material inventory increased by 321 tons [74][75]. 3.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: After an over - decline, short - term long positions can be taken, and options can be appropriately bought for protection; buy straddle options. The operating range is 70,000 - 100,000. In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [78].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant performance increase in H1 2025, achieving revenue of 19.178 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 972 million yuan, a decrease of 4.37% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 923 million yuan, an increase of 7.53% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.802 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.95% and a year-on-year increase of 21.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 581 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.41% [2][4]. - The profit structure for H1 2025 showed that tungsten-molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths accounted for 74.98%, 20.06%, and 7.38% of total profits, respectively. The growth in Q2 was primarily driven by contributions from tungsten-molybdenum and new energy sectors [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tungsten-Molybdenum - The tungsten-molybdenum segment achieved a total profit of 1.268 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%. In Q2 2025, the profit totaled 739 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40% [9]. - The increase in tungsten prices significantly contributed to the performance, with the company having a production capacity of 12,000 tons of tungsten concentrate. The domestic tungsten concentrate price began to rise sharply in Q2 2025, enhancing performance elasticity [9]. - The deep processing sector showed strong profitability, with cutting tools achieving a gross margin of over 40%. The company adjusted product prices to enhance market penetration and explore new applications for tungsten wire products [9]. New Energy Materials - The new energy materials segment reported a total profit of 339 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.47%. In Q2 2025, the profit was 215 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 73% [9]. - The demand for lithium cobalt oxide was strong, driven by favorable policies and consumer electronics demand. The company sold 28,800 tons of lithium cobalt oxide in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57% [9]. Rare Earth Magnetic Materials - The rare earth magnetic materials segment achieved a total profit of 125 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.71%. In Q2 2025, the profit was 59 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11% [9]. - The company expanded its production capacity in the rare earth sector, with new projects expected to contribute to performance in the coming years [9].

| [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 8 | 24 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★多头减仓触发深度回调，下游采购创年内高点 上周（08/18-08/22）锂盐价格冲高回落。LC2509 收盘价环比-8.9% 至 7.92 万元/吨，LC2511 收盘价环比-9.1%至 7.90 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+1.5%至 8.39、8.16 万元/ 吨。周内氢氧化锂价格延续上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级 氢氧化锂均价环比+4.7%、4.4%至 7.75、8.25 万元/吨。电工价差 环比持平于 0.23 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格 贴水环比收窄 0.23 万元至 0.64 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 据海关总署，7 月中国进口锂辉石总量约合 6.41 万吨 LCE，环比 +32%，同比+10%，其中，自澳洲进口量环比+67%至 4.27 万吨 LCE，或由价格反弹及企业财年节点共同所致；1-7 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply Slightly Increases, Demand Improves, Lithium Prices May Find Support" [2] - Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia - Core Viewpoint: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain largely unchanged, with both supply and demand increasing. Although inventory is still high, it is being depleted. The report suggests a light - position, short - term long strategy when prices are low, while controlling risks [5] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - The closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton as of August 22, 2025, a weekly decrease of 7,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 9.14% and an amplitude of 13.81%. The near - far month spread was 220 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton [5][11] Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 83,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,200 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 4,940 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 9,140 yuan/ton [17] Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Concentrate - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 970 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 86 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1778, a weekly increase of 0.07% [21] Lithium Mica - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,825 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 615 yuan/ton [26] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply - As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77% and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The monthly output was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year increase of 14.36%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a monthly decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31] Demand - **Electrolyte and Related Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 44.16%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8,000 yuan/ton [34] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The operating rate was 51%, a monthly decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [39] - **Ternary Materials**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The operating rate was 52%, a monthly increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of mainstream ternary materials continued to strengthen [42] - **Lithium Manganate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price of lithium manganate was 34,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton [47] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price of lithium cobaltate was 235,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton [50] Application End - New Energy Vehicles - As of July 2025, the monthly production of new - energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a monthly decrease of 1.97%; the monthly sales were 1,262,000 units, a monthly decrease of 5.04%. The penetration rate was 44.99%, a monthly increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million units, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [52][57] Group 5: Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.13, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [60]

-广告- 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 电池： 根据ICC鑫椤锂电数据库统计： 2025年7月年全球锂电池产量为 186.6GWH ，同比增长 48.9%。1-7月累计产量 1175.12GWH ，同比增长48.62%。 钴酸锂： 根 据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计： 2025年7月中国钴酸锂的产量达 0.99万吨 ，同比增长 13.7%。1-7月产量累计 6.07万吨 ，同比增长19.49%。 负极： 根 据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计： 2025年7月全球负极材料产量 24.4万吨 ，同比增长38.7%。 1-7月累计产量 154.44吨 ，同比增长34.21%。 电解液： 根 据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计： 2025年7月全球电解液产量为 19.05万吨 ，同比增长 38.2%。1-7月累计产量 118.66万吨 ，同比增长43.74%。 隔膜： 根据 ICC鑫椤锂电数据库 统计： 2025年7月全球隔膜产量为 26.72亿平米 ，同比增长 36.6%。1-7月累计产量 169.6亿平米 ，同比增长36.64%。 更多详 ...

需求端：新能源汽车零售同比增9%，但当前终端需求仍处淡季，车厂备货 谨慎；三元材料价格受镍钴成本推动上行，叠加厂商提锂系数挂钩结算 价，支撑碳酸锂刚需采购。磷酸铁锂电芯价格微跌0.2%，成本传导尚未完 全兑现，动力电池企业备货力度有限。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂总库存环比小幅下降0.1%至14.23万吨，去库速度仍 慢。 市场小结 碳酸锂资金预期反复引发高位宽幅区间震荡 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：8月21日碳酸锂主力合约收报82760元/吨，较前一日上涨 2.2%，呈现企稳反弹迹。基差大幅走弱至540元/吨，现货跟涨乏力，市场 对远期价格预期转弱。 持仓与成交：持仓量小幅收缩1.3%至39.0万手，成交量环比下降7.3%，市 场情绪趋向谨慎，部分资金高位止盈离场。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：锂辉石/云母精矿价格维持稳定，宁德时代宜春云母矿因采矿证到 期停产可能引发区域供应扰动。当前碳酸锂产能利用率维持63.9%的平稳水 平，但原料端因成本倒挂出现惜售，可能抑制未来锂盐生产积极性。 短期碳酸锂期货或转入宽幅震荡格局。上行阻力主要来自现货市场跟涨不 足及高库存压力，而下方支撑 ...

本文来源： #鑫椤锂电 行业热点新闻 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ I C C S I N O SQM：Q2盈利因锂价下滑，预期价格将回升 智利矿业化工(SQM.US)第二季度的核心盈利出现下滑，原因是用于电池生产的这种材料的价格跌至多年 来的最低点。 扣除特定项目后的调整后盈利较上年同期下降了 28%，至 3.079 亿美元。该公司表示，锂行 业一直受到全球供应过剩的严重影响，这导致价格大幅下跌，不过中国减少产量的举措近期推动了价格的 回升。SQM公司目前预计，其在智利的业务在 2025 年的销售量将较去年增长约 10%。该公司还上调了在 澳大利亚的销售预期。不过，由于市场价格低迷，该公司第二季度的销售量较第一季度有所下降。 比亚迪电动二轮车锂电池上线 日前，京东汽车与比亚迪电池战略合作升级， 比亚迪轻型车电池京东自营旗舰店上线，发售专为电动二、 三轮车研发的锂电池产品。 目前有8款产品在售，涵盖48V24Ah到76V96Ah，价格1298元至6998元不等。 中伟新材联手韩企磷酸铁锂再获一单 近日，浦项制铁控股有限公司旗下的电池材料公司POSC ...