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ETO Markets 每日汇评: 镑日“过山车”惊魂!61.8%黄金分割位遇阻,199.5成多头“生死线”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 05:01
Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) experienced fluctuations, rising to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before retreating, forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the H4 chart, and reaching a new low of 3722 during the US session before recovering, with a total daily range of 398 points [3] - The current market focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and geopolitical tensions, leading to a tug-of-war in gold prices [3] Group 2: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Gold - Resistance levels are identified at 3757-3760, while support levels are at 3722-3717; trading strategy suggests entering positions based on these levels—shorting at resistance with a stop loss at 3760 and a target of 70-100 points, and going long at support with a stop loss at 3717 and a target of 70-100 points [4] - The H1 trend line remains green, with a previous short position at 3748 yielding a profit of 100 points, and the strategy will continue to incorporate the M5 model for trading [4] Group 3: Euro Market Analysis - The Euro (EUR/USD) was negatively impacted by the deterioration of the German GfK consumer confidence index and US initial jobless claims data, resulting in a bearish daily close with a range of 108 points [6] - Weak European economic data combined with protectionist trade policy pressures are suppressing the Euro's performance [6] Group 4: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Euro - Resistance levels are set at 1.174/1.178, with support at 1.156/1.161; the trading strategy suggests shorting in the 1.171-1.170 range with a stop loss at 1.175 and a target of 30-50 points [8] - The H1 trend line remains green, with a previous short position at 1.1754 achieving the profit target, and the M5 model will be referenced for short-term trading [8] Group 5: Pound Market Analysis - The Pound (GBP/USD) faced pressure due to the UK CBI retail sales differential and fiscal deficit, closing bearish with a range of 145 points; the resilience of the US labor market has reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, adding to the Pound's challenges [10] Group 6: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for Pound - Resistance levels are identified at 1.342/1.347, with support at 1.323/1.327; the strategy suggests shorting in the 1.339-1.338 range with a stop loss at 1.345 and a target of 30-50 points [12] - The H1 trend line remains green, with a previous short position at 1.3467 achieving profitability, and the M5 model will continue to be utilized for trading [12] Group 7: GBP/JPY Market Analysis - The GBP/JPY pair saw fluctuations, rising to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before retreating, forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the H4 chart, with a daily range of 85 points [14] Group 8: Key Levels and Trading Recommendations for GBP/JPY - Resistance levels are set at 200.7/201.3, with support at 199.1/198.6; the strategy suggests shorting in the 199.9-200 range with a stop loss at 200.4 and a target of 40-60 points [15] - The H1 trend line shifted from red to yellow, with a previous long position at 199.7 yielding a profit of 70 points, and the focus will be on the green signal from the three-color line strategy combined with the M5 model for trading [16] Group 9: Upcoming Economic Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include Canada's July GDP, the US August core PCE price index, monthly personal spending, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, with caution advised regarding data volatility risks [18]