来源：凯基证券 美联储内部对降息路径出现巨大分歧。会议纪要显示，部分官员支持通胀回落后降息，但多数委员指出就业下行风险消退，而通胀降温进程缓慢，要求保留 利率指引的「双向」表述，以为通胀高企时加息留出空间。美联储理事米兰（Milan）亦指出，劳动力市场的改善可能意味着今年降息次数减少。随着高息 环境预期延长，流动性收紧忧虑升温，推高融资成本之余，更为风险资产带来估值逆风。 ...

Key Points Summary Group 1: Major Asset Trends - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.0 basis points to 4.22% while the 2-year yield fell by 2.0 basis points to 3.50% [3] - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.10% to 6932.30, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 1.84% to 23031.21, indicating a mixed performance in the equity markets [3] - The London spot gold price decreased by 0.68% to $4948.00, while Brent crude oil fell by 2.20% to $71.42 [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The U.S. employment data showed weakness, leading to a revised outlook for interest rate cuts, with a probability of a June rate cut to 3.25-3.5% exceeding 50% [4][12] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its policy rates, with inflation in the Eurozone showing a significant decline, as January CPI rose only 1.7% year-on-year, down from 1.9% [13][25] - The Bank of England kept its base rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the voting was close, indicating potential for future rate cuts [14] Group 3: Employment Data Insights - The JOLTS report indicated a significant drop in U.S. job openings to 6.542 million, the lowest since the pandemic recovery, with a vacancy rate falling to 3.9% [11][20] - The ADP employment report showed an increase of only 41,000 jobs in January, below the expected 48,000, while layoffs rose to 108,400 [22] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to reflect downward pressure on employment numbers [12][22] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Eurozone retail sales showed a decline of 0.5% month-on-month in December, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% [29] - In Japan, household consumption expenditure fell by 0.3% year-on-year in December, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [30] - The U.S. consumer confidence index improved slightly to 57.3, reflecting a mixed economic outlook [23]

Macro Perspective - Gold and silver prices experienced a pullback during the week of January 16, 2026. President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, making former Fed governor Kevin Walsh a leading candidate for the next Fed chair [2][10] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that interest rates are aligned with neutral levels and that the current policy stance is "well-positioned." The economy is expected to grow by 2% in the short term, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [2][10] - Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and that officials should be prepared to lower rates further if the job market does not improve. She noted that inflationary pressures are easing and emphasized the need to monitor risks to the Fed's "full employment" mission [2][10] Fundamental Data - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts totaled 100,053 kg, an increase of 2,400 kg from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [3][11] - On the Comex, gold inventories decreased by 176,016.78 ounces to 36,135,901.13 ounces, while silver inventories fell by 10,584,062.04 ounces to 429,156,441.13 ounces [3][11] - As of January 16, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF held 1,074.80 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF held 16,073 tons. As of January 13, 2025, speculative net long positions in gold were 136,548 contracts, while silver net long positions were 15,045 contracts [4][12] Market Strategy - Gold is rated as neutral. Recent adjustments in precious metals are notable, with market expectations for Hassett's potential appointment as Fed chair leading to increased uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, which negatively impacts gold prices. However, the long-term logic for gold remains intact as a substitute for dollar assets [5][13] - Silver is also rated as neutral. The price of silver has seen a significant pullback, and while it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, there is a need for careful position management and strict stop-loss execution due to silver's inherent volatility [6][14] - An arbitrage strategy suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels, while options strategies are currently on hold [15]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is fluctuating around the key level of 1.3500, showing signs of a halt in the recent pullback that began from a high point since September 18 [1] - Market bullish sentiment is supported by the easing of concerns regarding the UK's fiscal situation and the Bank of England's relatively hawkish policy stance [3] - The upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the ADP private sector employment report and the non-farm payroll report, are expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy and the GBP/USD exchange rate [4] Group 2 - The dollar's recent gains lack sustained bullish momentum due to ongoing dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve and the anticipation of key macroeconomic data releases [1][3] - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee recently passed a decision with a narrow 5-4 vote, indicating internal divisions regarding policy direction, which has affected market expectations for future easing [3] - Recent unexpected increases in UK inflation data have led investors to adjust their expectations for more aggressive easing by the Bank of England in 2026, further strengthening the pound [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China have been reduced for the eleventh time in 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 55 yuan per ton, effective from December 8, 2025 [1][4]. Price Adjustment Summary - The price reduction means that filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost 2 yuan less [1][4]. - In 2025, there have been a total of 24 adjustments to domestic fuel prices, categorized as 7 increases, 11 decreases, and 6 unchanged [1][4]. International Oil Price Trends - During the recent price adjustment cycle (November 24 to December 5), international oil prices experienced narrow fluctuations [5]. - The average international oil price level decreased compared to the previous adjustment cycle, influenced by disappointing U.S. economic data and fluctuating market sentiments due to geopolitical risks [8]. - Key factors affecting oil prices include a decrease in U.S. ADP employment numbers by 32,000, which is the lowest since March 2023, raising concerns about economic outlook and oil demand [8]. - Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly, with commercial crude oil stocks rising by 570,000 barrels and strategic petroleum reserve stocks increasing by 250,000 barrels as of November 28 [8]. Future Outlook - Experts from the National Development and Reform Commission anticipate that international oil prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to overall loose global oil supply and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [8]. - Future developments to monitor include changes in the geopolitical situation regarding Russia-Ukraine and Venezuela, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8].

原因？劳动力市场疲软正变得"too entrenched"。研报原文写道："We believe this could indicate that the weakness in the labor market is becoming too entrenched to be checked by the modest cyclical growth acceleration we expect next year."（我们认为劳动力市场的疲软正变得过于根深蒂固，温和的周期性增长加速难以 扭转。） 换句话说，即便美国经济明年回暖至2%-2.5%增速，也未必能遏制就业端颓势。 高盛内部layoff tracker显示，企业财报电话会议中的裁员mentions近月大幅攀升——这或许是比初请失业金更领先的风向标。研报同时提及"中国冲击 2.0"、俄乌和平协议潜在影响、铜价看涨等话题，研报已上传星球。 （来源：口罩哥研报60秒） 高盛（Goldman Sachs）12月3日发布最新宏观研究报告《What's Top of Mind in Macro Research》，核心聚焦美联储降息路径。 研报直言：12月FO ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from SEB indicates that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to approximately 3.9% by Q1 2026, although current market conditions present challenges to this forecast [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - The key to achieving the 3.9% yield target lies in the market's re-establishment of confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [2] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have made investors more cautious about future monetary policy directions, keeping yields at relatively high levels [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial benchmark rate that reflects investor expectations regarding the U.S. economy and policy, influencing global financing costs and asset pricing [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - SEB maintains a baseline scenario of a shift to a more accommodative policy stance within the next three to four months, driven by declining inflation, moderate job growth, and slowing economic activity [3] - A downward adjustment in interest rate expectations typically leads to a more relaxed financial environment, increasing demand for long-term bonds and pushing yields lower [3] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests that any adjustments in yields may occur gradually rather than abruptly [3] Group 3: Future Influences on Yield - Key factors influencing the U.S. Treasury yield in the coming months will include Federal Reserve statements, inflation data, and economic activity indicators [3] - The ability of yields to decline to the anticipated 3.9% will depend on the clarity of policy signals and the market's confidence in the future interest rate path [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chief strategist of Nordea Bank, Jussi Hiljanen, maintains the expectation that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury will decline to 3.90% by the first quarter of 2026, although he acknowledges that the current market environment poses challenges to this forecast [1] Group 1 - To achieve the 3.90% target for Q1, the market must regain confidence in the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts [1] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased short-term uncertainty [1] - Hiljanen emphasizes that a shift towards a more accommodative policy stance, lower interest rate expectations, and declining yields remains the baseline scenario for the next three to four months [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Recent liquidity crisis in the US led to a "bond market blood - sucking → risk asset blood - loss" chain. The market is in a capital re - pricing cycle, and the current decline is due to capital cost rather than fundamental deterioration [9]. - The wave of US Treasury issuance and fiscal deficit expansion will strengthen the mid - term pattern of liquidity tightening and asset re - pricing. Dollar liquidity will remain tight from November to December, and rising bond yields will push up global capital pricing and suppress high - valuation assets [9]. - The market is in a phased switch from liquidity flooding to pricing callback. Once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed stops liquidity withdrawal or shifts policy, asset prices will rise again. This is a valuation adjustment, not a structural breakdown [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - As of November 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 9bp in two weeks, reaching 4.11%. The 2 - year yield rose 7bp and the 30 - year yield rose 11bp compared to two weeks ago [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In late October, the duration of US Treasury issuance slightly rebounded. The issuance amounts were $68.47 billion for 2 - year, $69.902 billion for 5 - year, and $43.95 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers dropped to 5.738 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, rising to 395,400 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 3.4.1 Monetary Policy - On October 30, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction in December and reinvest all MBS principal repayments in short - term bonds. Powell emphasized that the decision on further rate cuts in December depends on data [6]. 3.4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 5, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance expanded by $37.63 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool expanded by $18.06 billion, increasing short - term uncertainty in the liquidity buffer [6]. 3.4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 1, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.22 (2.13 two weeks ago), indicating short - term economic improvement after stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and bargain hunting, as investors focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation data for September, which will provide clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 1 - Gold momentum trading experienced a collapse and reversal, indicating a technical repositioning in the market after breaking the $4000 level, suggesting a need for a correction [1] - There is skepticism about whether the worst daily volatility has been seen, as further bargain buying may still occur [1]