1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the precious metals market showed a high - level volatile pattern. The prices of gold and silver were affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, crude oil fluctuations, and US macro - data. The market was in a tug - of - war between "rising rate - cut expectations" and "growing concerns about imported inflation" [6]. - In the short - term, the development of the US - Iran situation is the core factor affecting the trend of gold and silver. If the situation remains volatile, the prices of precious metals will likely continue to fluctuate. If the geopolitical situation eases, the Fed's mid - year rate - cut expectations may rise again, supporting the prices of gold and silver. In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains intact, and it is recommended to make long - term investments on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - This week, the precious metals market was in a high - level volatile pattern. At the beginning of the week, due to Trump's signals of easing the US - Iran conflict, some funds flowed back to precious metals, pushing up prices. US macro - data affected the market's rate - cut expectations. Later, concerns about inflation and the strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields suppressed precious metals prices [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of March 13, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 was reported at 20,923 yuan/kg, down 3.76% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 was reported at 1,133 yuan/g, down 0.68% for the week [11]. - **ETF Net Positions**: As of March 12, 2026, the net positions of gold and silver ETFs on the external market had a small outflow. The net position of SPDR gold ETF was 1,077.28 tons, a 0.35% decrease; the net position of SLV silver ETF was 15,655 tons, a 2% decrease [16]. - **COMEX Net Long Positions**: As of March 3, 2026, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased. The net position of COMEX gold was 160,145 contracts, a 0.60% increase; the net position of COMEX silver was 23,338 contracts, a 4.84% increase [21]. - **Basis Changes**: As of March 12, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold and silver main contracts weakened week - on - week. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.10 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 14 yuan/kg [24]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads**: As of March 12, 2026, the domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver widened. The domestic - foreign price spread of the Shanghai gold main contract was 13.10 yuan/g, and that of the Shanghai silver main contract was 2,981 yuan/kg [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of March 12, 2026, the inventories of gold and silver in domestic and foreign exchanges decreased. COMEX gold inventory was 32,656,406.59 ounces, a 1.34% decrease; COMEX silver inventory was 345,310,443 ounces, a 2.80% decrease; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 105,033 kg, almost unchanged; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 255,952 kg, a 16.5% decrease [32]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: As of March 12, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver price) was 60.61, down from 61.22 in the same period last week [36]. 3.3. Industry Supply - Demand Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of December 2025, the import quantities of silver and silver ore sand increased significantly. The import quantity of Chinese silver was 334,742.41 kg, a 27.03% increase; the import quantity of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 239,325,381 kg, a 32.29% increase. Due to the growth of silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the output of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate stabilized. In December 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,810,000 pieces, and the year - on - year growth rate was 12.9% [40][44]. - **Gold Supply - Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and emerging - market central banks continued to buy gold. The total global gold demand reached 5,002 tons, a record high, and the total demand amount was 55.5 billion US dollars. The investment demand for gold reached 2,175 tons, and the net position of gold ETFs increased by 801 tons for the whole year [48]. - **Silver Supply - Demand**: In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a small increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly. It is predicted that the global total silver supply will increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the total demand will decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap will narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% decrease [51]. 3.4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued to be strong. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, the CBOE gold volatility declined, and the ratio of the S&P 500 to the London gold price decreased. Emerging - market central banks maintained their gold - buying stance, providing long - term structural support for gold prices [52][56][60].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of interest rate cuts, with some officials supporting cuts after inflation declines, while the majority emphasize the need to maintain a "dual" rate guidance due to slow inflation progress and reduced employment downside risks [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreement - Some officials advocate for interest rate cuts following a decrease in inflation [2] - The majority of committee members highlight the slow progress of inflation and the need to retain a "dual" rate guidance to allow for potential rate hikes in response to high inflation [2] Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicates that improvements in the labor market may lead to fewer interest rate cuts this year [2] - The expectation of a prolonged high-interest environment raises concerns about tightening liquidity, which increases financing costs and creates headwinds for risk assets [2]

Key Points Summary Group 1: Major Asset Trends - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 4.0 basis points to 4.22% while the 2-year yield fell by 2.0 basis points to 3.50% [3] - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.10% to 6932.30, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 1.84% to 23031.21, indicating a mixed performance in the equity markets [3] - The London spot gold price decreased by 0.68% to $4948.00, while Brent crude oil fell by 2.20% to $71.42 [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The U.S. employment data showed weakness, leading to a revised outlook for interest rate cuts, with a probability of a June rate cut to 3.25-3.5% exceeding 50% [4][12] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its policy rates, with inflation in the Eurozone showing a significant decline, as January CPI rose only 1.7% year-on-year, down from 1.9% [13][25] - The Bank of England kept its base rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the voting was close, indicating potential for future rate cuts [14] Group 3: Employment Data Insights - The JOLTS report indicated a significant drop in U.S. job openings to 6.542 million, the lowest since the pandemic recovery, with a vacancy rate falling to 3.9% [11][20] - The ADP employment report showed an increase of only 41,000 jobs in January, below the expected 48,000, while layoffs rose to 108,400 [22] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to reflect downward pressure on employment numbers [12][22] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Eurozone retail sales showed a decline of 0.5% month-on-month in December, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% [29] - In Japan, household consumption expenditure fell by 0.3% year-on-year in December, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [30] - The U.S. consumer confidence index improved slightly to 57.3, reflecting a mixed economic outlook [23]

Macro Perspective - Gold and silver prices experienced a pullback during the week of January 16, 2026. President Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position rather than move to the Federal Reserve, making former Fed governor Kevin Walsh a leading candidate for the next Fed chair [2][10] - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that interest rates are aligned with neutral levels and that the current policy stance is "well-positioned." The economy is expected to grow by 2% in the short term, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [2][10] - Fed Governor Bowman indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive and that officials should be prepared to lower rates further if the job market does not improve. She noted that inflationary pressures are easing and emphasized the need to monitor risks to the Fed's "full employment" mission [2][10] Fundamental Data - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold warehouse receipts totaled 100,053 kg, an increase of 2,400 kg from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [3][11] - On the Comex, gold inventories decreased by 176,016.78 ounces to 36,135,901.13 ounces, while silver inventories fell by 10,584,062.04 ounces to 429,156,441.13 ounces [3][11] - As of January 16, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF held 1,074.80 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF held 16,073 tons. As of January 13, 2025, speculative net long positions in gold were 136,548 contracts, while silver net long positions were 15,045 contracts [4][12] Market Strategy - Gold is rated as neutral. Recent adjustments in precious metals are notable, with market expectations for Hassett's potential appointment as Fed chair leading to increased uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, which negatively impacts gold prices. However, the long-term logic for gold remains intact as a substitute for dollar assets [5][13] - Silver is also rated as neutral. The price of silver has seen a significant pullback, and while it is still advisable to buy on dips for hedging, there is a need for careful position management and strict stop-loss execution due to silver's inherent volatility [6][14] - An arbitrage strategy suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels, while options strategies are currently on hold [15]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is fluctuating around the key level of 1.3500, showing signs of a halt in the recent pullback that began from a high point since September 18 [1] - Market bullish sentiment is supported by the easing of concerns regarding the UK's fiscal situation and the Bank of England's relatively hawkish policy stance [3] - The upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the ADP private sector employment report and the non-farm payroll report, are expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy and the GBP/USD exchange rate [4] Group 2 - The dollar's recent gains lack sustained bullish momentum due to ongoing dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve and the anticipation of key macroeconomic data releases [1][3] - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee recently passed a decision with a narrow 5-4 vote, indicating internal divisions regarding policy direction, which has affected market expectations for future easing [3] - Recent unexpected increases in UK inflation data have led investors to adjust their expectations for more aggressive easing by the Bank of England in 2026, further strengthening the pound [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China have been reduced for the eleventh time in 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 55 yuan per ton, effective from December 8, 2025 [1][4]. Price Adjustment Summary - The price reduction means that filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost 2 yuan less [1][4]. - In 2025, there have been a total of 24 adjustments to domestic fuel prices, categorized as 7 increases, 11 decreases, and 6 unchanged [1][4]. International Oil Price Trends - During the recent price adjustment cycle (November 24 to December 5), international oil prices experienced narrow fluctuations [5]. - The average international oil price level decreased compared to the previous adjustment cycle, influenced by disappointing U.S. economic data and fluctuating market sentiments due to geopolitical risks [8]. - Key factors affecting oil prices include a decrease in U.S. ADP employment numbers by 32,000, which is the lowest since March 2023, raising concerns about economic outlook and oil demand [8]. - Additionally, U.S. crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly, with commercial crude oil stocks rising by 570,000 barrels and strategic petroleum reserve stocks increasing by 250,000 barrels as of November 28 [8]. Future Outlook - Experts from the National Development and Reform Commission anticipate that international oil prices will maintain a volatile trend in the short term due to overall loose global oil supply and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [8]. - Future developments to monitor include changes in the geopolitical situation regarding Russia-Ukraine and Venezuela, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' latest macro research report emphasizes the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, indicating a 25 basis point cut at the December FOMC meeting is almost certain, but future policy direction remains uncertain [1][4]. Group 1: Employment Data - Despite the September non-farm payrolls appearing to exceed expectations, Goldman Sachs estimates the underlying employment growth is only 39k per month, significantly lower than market perceptions [1][4]. - The report suggests that the weakness in the labor market is becoming "too entrenched," indicating that even a modest cyclical growth acceleration expected next year may not reverse the employment downturn [3][7]. Group 2: Future Rate Cuts - Goldman Sachs anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, projected for March and June, with a terminal rate expected to fall within the 3%-3.25% range, but notes that the risks are skewed to the downside [1][4]. Group 3: Additional Insights - The internal layoff tracker from Goldman Sachs shows a significant increase in mentions of layoffs during corporate earnings calls, which may serve as a leading indicator compared to initial jobless claims [3][7]. - The report also touches on topics such as the potential impacts of "China Shock 2.0," the possibility of a peace agreement in Ukraine, and bullish sentiments regarding copper prices [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from SEB indicates that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to approximately 3.9% by Q1 2026, although current market conditions present challenges to this forecast [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - The key to achieving the 3.9% yield target lies in the market's re-establishment of confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [2] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have made investors more cautious about future monetary policy directions, keeping yields at relatively high levels [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial benchmark rate that reflects investor expectations regarding the U.S. economy and policy, influencing global financing costs and asset pricing [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - SEB maintains a baseline scenario of a shift to a more accommodative policy stance within the next three to four months, driven by declining inflation, moderate job growth, and slowing economic activity [3] - A downward adjustment in interest rate expectations typically leads to a more relaxed financial environment, increasing demand for long-term bonds and pushing yields lower [3] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests that any adjustments in yields may occur gradually rather than abruptly [3] Group 3: Future Influences on Yield - Key factors influencing the U.S. Treasury yield in the coming months will include Federal Reserve statements, inflation data, and economic activity indicators [3] - The ability of yields to decline to the anticipated 3.9% will depend on the clarity of policy signals and the market's confidence in the future interest rate path [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chief strategist of Nordea Bank, Jussi Hiljanen, maintains the expectation that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury will decline to 3.90% by the first quarter of 2026, although he acknowledges that the current market environment poses challenges to this forecast [1] Group 1 - To achieve the 3.90% target for Q1, the market must regain confidence in the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts [1] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased short-term uncertainty [1] - Hiljanen emphasizes that a shift towards a more accommodative policy stance, lower interest rate expectations, and declining yields remains the baseline scenario for the next three to four months [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Recent liquidity crisis in the US led to a "bond market blood - sucking → risk asset blood - loss" chain. The market is in a capital re - pricing cycle, and the current decline is due to capital cost rather than fundamental deterioration [9]. - The wave of US Treasury issuance and fiscal deficit expansion will strengthen the mid - term pattern of liquidity tightening and asset re - pricing. Dollar liquidity will remain tight from November to December, and rising bond yields will push up global capital pricing and suppress high - valuation assets [9]. - The market is in a phased switch from liquidity flooding to pricing callback. Once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed stops liquidity withdrawal or shifts policy, asset prices will rise again. This is a valuation adjustment, not a structural breakdown [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - As of November 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 9bp in two weeks, reaching 4.11%. The 2 - year yield rose 7bp and the 30 - year yield rose 11bp compared to two weeks ago [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In late October, the duration of US Treasury issuance slightly rebounded. The issuance amounts were $68.47 billion for 2 - year, $69.902 billion for 5 - year, and $43.95 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers dropped to 5.738 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, rising to 395,400 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 3.4.1 Monetary Policy - On October 30, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction in December and reinvest all MBS principal repayments in short - term bonds. Powell emphasized that the decision on further rate cuts in December depends on data [6]. 3.4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 5, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance expanded by $37.63 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool expanded by $18.06 billion, increasing short - term uncertainty in the liquidity buffer [6]. 3.4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 1, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.22 (2.13 two weeks ago), indicating short - term economic improvement after stability [6].