来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇9月29日｜亚洲货币和新兴市场股市周一走高，因美元连续第二日下跌，交易员们关注本周的美 国就业数据，以寻找美联储降息路径的线索。上周五，美联储偏爱的通胀指标与预期相符。瑞典北欧斯 安银行亚洲策略主管Eugenia Fabon Victorino表示，如果美国政府关门推迟就业报告的发布并加剧不确 定性，亚洲货币的涨势可能是短暂的。"未来几天我们必须小心亚洲货币，美元/亚洲货币汇率将在周三 之前受到美元波动的影响。" ...

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 沪铜日评20250929: 矿端偏紧但需求趋弱使铜价震荡 | 变重名称 2025-09-18 绞昨日变动 2025-09-26 | | 2025-09-25 | | | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 82470 | 82710 | 79620 | -240.00 | | | 成交車(手) 90514 -160, 268. 00 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 174625 | 334893 | | | | | 持仓量(手) | 229050 | 23853 | 127860 | -9. 473.00 | | | 库存(吨) | 26557 | 27662 | 32469 | -1.105.00 | | | 沪铜县差 | 15 | -205 | 370 | 220.00 | | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | 82485 | 82505 | 79990 | -20.00 | | | SMM半水铜开贴水一半均价 | -40 | -10 | 30 | -30. 0 ...

黄金XAU/USD 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点：周四黄金在亚欧盘震荡上行至61.8%黄金分割位后回落，H4周期形成看跌吞没形态，美盘创3722新低后回升，全天波幅398 点，日线收带上下影线小阳线。当前市场聚焦美联储降息路径与地缘政治博弈，金价处于多空拉锯状态。 关键点位与操作建议：上方阻力3757-3760，下方支撑3722-3717，今日以触及阻力/支撑位入场为主——阻力区做空（止损3760，目标70-100点），支撑区做 多（止损3717，目标70-100点）。 三色线策略：H1趋势线维持绿色，昨日3748空单盈利100点离场，今日继续结合M5模型操作。 欧元EUR/USD 三色线策略：H1趋势线绿色，昨日1.3467空单盈利，今日沿用M5模型操作。 镑日GBP/JPY 关键点位与操作建议：上方阻力1.174/1.178，下方支撑1.156/1.161，今日1.171-1.170区域做空（止损1.175，目标30-50点）。 三色线策略：H1趋势线绿色，昨日1.1754空单达成盈利目标，今日参考M5模型短线交易。 英镑GBP/USD 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点：周四英镑受英国CBI零 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting emphasized the risks of employment slowdown and raised the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious but dovish stance from Chairman Powell [1][2][3] Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations of two more cuts within the year [2] - The statement highlighted the risks of employment downturn, removing previous language about a robust labor market and introducing concerns about slowing job growth [2] Economic Forecasts - The Fed improved GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 while slightly lowering unemployment rate projections for 2026 and 2027 [2] - The dot plot indicated an increase in expected rate cuts for 2025 from two to three, with further divergence in future rate expectations among committee members [2] Powell's Remarks - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating no need for significant cuts at this time and emphasizing a data-dependent approach for future decisions [3] - He noted that while unemployment remains low, there are rising risks, attributing job growth slowdown to factors like reduced immigration and declining labor participation rates [3] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock markets showed mixed results, reflecting market sensitivity to Powell's cautious tone regarding future rate cuts [4] - Market confidence in two additional rate cuts this year increased, although expectations for 2026's rate cuts were pushed back [4] Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. **Soft Landing Scenario**: The economy achieves a soft landing with no major recession, leading to two more cuts this year and three in 2025 [5] 2. **Recession Scenario**: A significant economic downturn occurs, prompting aggressive rate cuts, potentially including a 50 basis point cut [6] 3. **High Inflation Scenario**: Persistent high inflation forces the Fed to maintain higher rates for an extended period [6] - The soft landing scenario is considered the most probable, while the recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as less likely at this time [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **gold market** and its price dynamics influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Trends**: After breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark at the end of August, market attention on gold has significantly increased, aligning with expectations that the price movements are driven by different factors in the first and second halves of the year [2][3]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The conclusion of the China-US Geneva Agreement in May reduced tariff uncertainties, leading to a decrease in the political risk premium that previously supported gold prices [2][4]. - **US Labor Market Data**: A downward revision of US labor market data has raised concerns about economic performance, which in turn supports gold prices as it increases expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The weakening of geopolitical pricing and a significant decline in global demand expectations have contributed to volatility in the commodity markets, including gold [3][4]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates without waiting for significant inflation decreases is a key factor influencing gold prices, with expectations of a terminal rate around 3% [8][9]. - **Inflation and Stagflation**: The current economic slowdown may support gold prices, with market concerns about stagflation, which typically benefits gold [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Long-term Debt Risks**: The resignation of Federal Reserve officials and increasing long-term debt risks have heightened market concerns about the independence of the Fed and the sustainability of developed countries' debt levels, contributing to rising gold prices [6][10]. - **Future Price Predictions**: For 2026, key factors to monitor include US labor data, global long-term debt risks, and geopolitical tensions, which will significantly impact gold prices [5][12]. - **Market Sentiment**: The upcoming US-China meetings may provide optimistic news, but the market has already priced in the easing of trade uncertainties, limiting the potential for significant gold price corrections [10][11]. Conclusion - The gold market is currently influenced by a complex interplay of economic data, geopolitical events, and Federal Reserve policies, with expectations of continued price support in the near term due to anticipated rate cuts and economic conditions. Future price movements will depend heavily on the evolution of these factors.

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate have drawn significant market attention, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a trend towards convergence with the central parity rate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - On August 28, the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD broke through key levels of 7.15, 7.14, and 7.13, with the offshore rate (USDCNH) dipping below 7.12 [1]. - The central parity rate for USD to RMB on August 29 was reported at 7.1030, an increase of 33 basis points from the previous trading day, yet still 251 basis points lower than Bloomberg's forecast, indicating a signal for potential appreciation [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The narrowing gap between the central parity and actual trading rates suggests active management of exchange rate expectations, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [2]. - Following the break of 7.15 in USDCNY and USDCNH, the market anticipates a quicker convergence of the spot rate towards the central parity [2]. Group 3: Impact on Trading Strategies - The recent increase in RMB exchange rate volatility may affect "carry trade" strategies, which have been popular due to low volatility and a significant interest rate differential of approximately 260 basis points since May [2]. - The rise in volatility on August 28 may indicate a shift in the carry trade environment, posing potential risks for traders [2]. Group 4: Export and Investment Implications - While the appreciation of the RMB against the USD may attract foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets, it could also impact exports [6]. - The RMB exchange rate index, such as the CFETS index, is more reflective of the export fundamentals, showing depreciation against a basket of currencies while appreciating against the USD, which helps mitigate risks from overseas tariffs [6]. Group 5: Uncertainties and Investor Considerations - The trajectory of the RMB exchange rate remains uncertain due to factors such as unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, delayed effects of China's easing policies, and fluctuations in non-USD currencies like the Euro and Yen [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor these factors to make more informed investment decisions [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risk premium is weakening due to the expected "Putin-Zelensky meeting", and there are still strong differences in the market regarding the Fed's interest rate cut path. Therefore, it is expected that the gold price will mainly fluctuate in the near future and wait for Powell's guidance at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. The oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 750 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8][9]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still synchronized with that of gold, mainly based on the Fed's interest rate cut path on the macro - level, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply - demand fundamentals of silver. With the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and differences in the Fed's interest rate cut path, the silver price is also expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8900 yuan/kilogram and 9400 yuan/kilogram [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, covering various products such as wind turbines and furniture [1]. - The White House is planning a possible meeting among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest, and geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly [1]. - Fed's Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of crypto - products, reflecting the US government's friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.98 yuan/gram, closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 772.60 yuan/gram, down 0.32% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 19, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9263.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9187.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.77% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 272,701 lots, and the open interest was 342,500 lots. The night - session closed at 9061 yuan/kilogram, down 1.37% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 19, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.31%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.56%, down 0.8 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position and short - position changes were 0 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,718 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract on August 19, 2025, the long - position changed by 2 lots, and the short - position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 411,181 lots, down 10.67% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 3.15 tons, down 16.95 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 2.34 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 710.76 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.36, up 0.44% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.91, up 1.19% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 21,362 kilograms, down 3.88% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 333,308 kilograms, up 22.46% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 6506 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 10,140 kilograms [7].

Economic Data - The US GDP for Q2 2025 showed a seasonally adjusted annualized growth rate of +3.0%, exceeding expectations of +2.4%[17] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[19] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs[27] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.36% to 6238.01, while the Nasdaq index fell by 2.17% to 20650.13[2] - The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 17 basis points to 4.23%, and the 2-year yield fell by 22 basis points to 3.69%[2] - The US dollar index rose by 1.04% to 98.6900, indicating a stronger dollar amidst economic uncertainty[2] Inflation and Employment - The unemployment rate increased to 4.25% in July, up from 4.11% in the previous month, while the U3 unemployment rate reflects a cooling labor market[29] - Core PCE inflation rose to 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.7%[23] - Job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%, indicating a tightening labor market[25] Policy and Trade - President Trump announced a new tariff list affecting nearly 70 countries, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures and trade negotiations with China[3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by the dual pressures of weakening economic data and ongoing tariff implications, with a 80% probability of a rate cut in September following the weak non-farm payroll data[11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the impact of tariffs on inflation in the United States, particularly in relation to various industries and consumer behavior. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Rate Increase**: The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose significantly from 2.5% at the beginning of 2025 to 8.8% by mid-year, with tariffs on imports from China increasing from 10% to nearly 40% [1][5] - **Impact on Different Industries**: The metal industry saw a 50% increase in tariffs, while small appliances, furniture, and toys experienced a 20% increase [1][5] - **Cost Burden Distribution**: Tariff costs are primarily borne by exporters, U.S. companies, and consumers, with historical data indicating that consumers ultimately shoulder most of the burden [1][3][11] - **Inflation Transmission**: As of June 2025, approximately 40% of tariff costs have been passed on to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the remaining 60% potentially absorbed by businesses [1][9][11] - **Correlation Between Actual and Theoretical Inflation**: There is a positive correlation between actual inflation and theoretical predictions, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.4 [1][9] - **Modeling Approach**: A comprehensive panel regression model was developed to track the impact of tariffs across 212 industries, allowing for detailed analysis of long-term effects on inflation [2][5] Additional Important Content - **Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Federal Reserve Policy**: The CPI is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of potential rate cuts in late 2025 [3][12] - **Differential Impact on Product Categories**: Certain product categories, such as small appliances and audio equipment, are experiencing significant inflation, while the automotive sector shows no notable price increases [10] - **Weak Dollar Effects**: A weaker dollar limits exporters' ability to absorb tariff costs, leading to increased pressure on importers [13][14] - **Future Economic Indicators**: The future path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will depend on economic data and the observed effects of tariffs on inflation [7][12] - **Monitoring Future Trends**: Continuous tracking of CPI data from July to September will help assess the transmission of tariff costs between businesses and consumers [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Short-term gold is expected to oscillate in a strong manner within a range, and the medium- to long-term bullish view remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade games in early August and the changes in interest rate cut expectations brought by the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting later in the month [1][3] - After silver was blocked at the $40 mark, it oscillated and declined in the short term. In the medium term, the three logics suppressing silver's elasticity are difficult to reverse. The medium-term view is bullish on the trend of silver but cautious about its elasticity [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US PPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year (expected +2.5%, previous value revised from +2.6% to +2.7%); month-on-month it was flat (expected +0.2%, previous value revised from +0.1% to +0.3%). Core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year (expected +2.7%, previous value revised from +3.0% to +3.2%); month-on-month it was flat (expected +0.2%, previous value revised from +0.1% to +0.4%) [2] - US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, a general tariff would be used to impose a tax rate slightly higher than 10% on small countries. Larger economies are discussing coordinated tariff agreements, and negotiations with the EU, Vietnam and other countries are progressing smoothly [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent proposed to increase the issuance of short-term Treasury bonds to disperse the debt repayment pressure under the high-interest rate environment, but this strategy has caused market concerns about the long-term credibility of the Treasury and refinancing risks [2] Price Logic - The price of precious metals oscillated during the day, and the short-term decline of the US dollar index at night drove the overall increase of precious metals. The US PPI data in June was slightly lower than expected, having little impact on sentiment [3] - The market's attention to the change of the Fed Chairman next year is increasing. In the second half of the year, besides the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut path, the emergence of a "shadow chairman" may reignite the market's concern about the Fed's independence [1][3] - Silver faced resistance at the $40 mark and then oscillated and declined in the short term. In the medium term, the three logics suppressing silver's elasticity are difficult to reverse, maintaining a bullish view on the trend of silver but cautious about its elasticity [3] Outlook - Weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3]