周三亚洲交易时段，英镑/美元汇率围绕1.3500关键位置窄幅波动。 此前一日从9月18日以来高点开启的回撤走势已显现停止迹象。 从当前基本面背景来看，市场多头力量获得一定支撑，短期汇率更大概率呈现上行态势。 美元方面，尽管隔夜录得涨幅并成功守住， 英镑的支撑动力主要来源于两方面。 一方面，英国预算相关的担忧情绪持续缓解，市场对英国财政状况的信心逐步修复； 另一方面，英国央行相对鹰派的政策立场持续发挥支撑作用。 在12月的利率决议中，货币政策委员会以5-4的微弱票数差距通过相关决议，凸显委员会内部对政策走向的分歧。 叠加近期英国通胀数据意外上行，投资者已下调对2026年英国央行实施更激进宽松政策的预期，这一预期调整进一步强化了英镑的支撑力度。 当前市场交投情绪相对谨慎，交易者普遍选择等待更多关于美联储降息路径的明确线索，英镑/美元的后续走势仍需关键数据指引。 短期内，市场焦点集中在即将公布的多项美国经济数据上： 但整体缺乏持续看涨的动力。当前市场对美联储的鸽派政策预期持续存在，同时多项关键宏观经济数据即将公布，进一步抑制了美元的上涨信 心。 全球股市普遍走高的市场情绪，降低了投资者对避险属性的美元需求，这一因素 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 于祥明）成品油价迎来2025年年内第十一次下调。记者12月8日从国家发展改革委获悉，按照现行 成品油价格机制，自12月8日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨均降低55元。以油箱容量为50升的普通家用车计算，加满一箱92 号汽油，将少花2元。至此，今年国内油价已经历24轮调整，分别为"7涨11降6搁浅"。国家发展改革委价格监测中心专家向上 证报记者表示，短期内国际油价将维持震荡走势。 国家发展改革委价格监测中心供图 国家发展改革委价格监测中心专家预计，在全球原油供应总体宽松而地缘政治局势仍存变数的背景下，短期内国际油价将维 持震荡走势。后续需关注俄乌及委内瑞拉地缘局势变化，及美联储降息路径选择等。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 于祥明）成品油价迎来2025年年内第十一次下调。记者12月8日从国家发展改革委获悉，按照现行 成品油价格机制，自12月8日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨均降低55元。以油箱容量为50升的普通家用车计算，加满一箱92 号汽油，将少花2元。至此，今年国内油价已经历24轮调整，分别为"7涨11降6搁浅"。国家发展改革 ...

原因？劳动力市场疲软正变得"too entrenched"。研报原文写道："We believe this could indicate that the weakness in the labor market is becoming too entrenched to be checked by the modest cyclical growth acceleration we expect next year."（我们认为劳动力市场的疲软正变得过于根深蒂固，温和的周期性增长加速难以 扭转。） 换句话说，即便美国经济明年回暖至2%-2.5%增速，也未必能遏制就业端颓势。 高盛内部layoff tracker显示，企业财报电话会议中的裁员mentions近月大幅攀升——这或许是比初请失业金更领先的风向标。研报同时提及"中国冲击 2.0"、俄乌和平协议潜在影响、铜价看涨等话题，研报已上传星球。 （来源：口罩哥研报60秒） 高盛（Goldman Sachs）12月3日发布最新宏观研究报告《What's Top of Mind in Macro Research》，核心聚焦美联储降息路径。 研报直言：12月FO ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from SEB indicates that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline to approximately 3.9% by Q1 2026, although current market conditions present challenges to this forecast [2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - The key to achieving the 3.9% yield target lies in the market's re-establishment of confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [2] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have made investors more cautious about future monetary policy directions, keeping yields at relatively high levels [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial benchmark rate that reflects investor expectations regarding the U.S. economy and policy, influencing global financing costs and asset pricing [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - SEB maintains a baseline scenario of a shift to a more accommodative policy stance within the next three to four months, driven by declining inflation, moderate job growth, and slowing economic activity [3] - A downward adjustment in interest rate expectations typically leads to a more relaxed financial environment, increasing demand for long-term bonds and pushing yields lower [3] - The resilience of the U.S. economy suggests that any adjustments in yields may occur gradually rather than abruptly [3] Group 3: Future Influences on Yield - Key factors influencing the U.S. Treasury yield in the coming months will include Federal Reserve statements, inflation data, and economic activity indicators [3] - The ability of yields to decline to the anticipated 3.9% will depend on the clarity of policy signals and the market's confidence in the future interest rate path [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chief strategist of Nordea Bank, Jussi Hiljanen, maintains the expectation that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury will decline to 3.90% by the first quarter of 2026, although he acknowledges that the current market environment poses challenges to this forecast [1] Group 1 - To achieve the 3.90% target for Q1, the market must regain confidence in the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts [1] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased short-term uncertainty [1] - Hiljanen emphasizes that a shift towards a more accommodative policy stance, lower interest rate expectations, and declining yields remains the baseline scenario for the next three to four months [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Recent liquidity crisis in the US led to a "bond market blood - sucking → risk asset blood - loss" chain. The market is in a capital re - pricing cycle, and the current decline is due to capital cost rather than fundamental deterioration [9]. - The wave of US Treasury issuance and fiscal deficit expansion will strengthen the mid - term pattern of liquidity tightening and asset re - pricing. Dollar liquidity will remain tight from November to December, and rising bond yields will push up global capital pricing and suppress high - valuation assets [9]. - The market is in a phased switch from liquidity flooding to pricing callback. Once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed stops liquidity withdrawal or shifts policy, asset prices will rise again. This is a valuation adjustment, not a structural breakdown [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - As of November 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 9bp in two weeks, reaching 4.11%. The 2 - year yield rose 7bp and the 30 - year yield rose 11bp compared to two weeks ago [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In late October, the duration of US Treasury issuance slightly rebounded. The issuance amounts were $68.47 billion for 2 - year, $69.902 billion for 5 - year, and $43.95 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers dropped to 5.738 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, rising to 395,400 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 3.4.1 Monetary Policy - On October 30, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction in December and reinvest all MBS principal repayments in short - term bonds. Powell emphasized that the decision on further rate cuts in December depends on data [6]. 3.4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 5, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance expanded by $37.63 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool expanded by $18.06 billion, increasing short - term uncertainty in the liquidity buffer [6]. 3.4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 1, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.22 (2.13 two weeks ago), indicating short - term economic improvement after stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and bargain hunting, as investors focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation data for September, which will provide clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 1 - Gold momentum trading experienced a collapse and reversal, indicating a technical repositioning in the market after breaking the $4000 level, suggesting a need for a correction [1] - There is skepticism about whether the worst daily volatility has been seen, as further bargain buying may still occur [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and bargain buying, as investors focus on the upcoming U.S. inflation data set to be released on Friday, which will provide clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 1 - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to a softening dollar and increased buying interest at lower price levels [1] - Investors are particularly attentive to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts [1] - StoneX senior analyst Matt Simpson noted a significant shift in gold trading momentum, indicating a technical repositioning in the market after surpassing the $4000 mark, suggesting a potential need for a market correction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Asian currencies and emerging market stocks rose on Monday due to a decline in the US dollar for the second consecutive day, with traders focusing on upcoming US employment data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [1] Group 1 - The rise in Asian currencies is linked to the recent drop in the US dollar, which has been observed for two days [1] - Traders are particularly attentive to US employment data scheduled for release this week, as it may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [1] - The preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve aligned with expectations last Friday, contributing to the current market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Eugenia Fabon Victorino, the Asian strategy head at Nordea Bank, cautioned that if the US government shutdown delays the employment report, it could increase uncertainty and potentially limit the gains in Asian currencies [1] - The performance of Asian currencies against the US dollar is expected to be influenced by fluctuations in the dollar until Wednesday [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to an expectation of tight supply and demand, but the Fed's hawkish future interest - rate cut path and high copper prices suppressing downstream purchasing willingness may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 82710, down 240 from the previous value; trading volume was 174625, with a decrease of 160268 compared to the previous value; open interest was 23853, down 9473; inventory was 27662 tons, a decrease of 1105 tons; the basis was - 205, an increase of 220 [2] 3.2 SMM Copper Prices and Premiums - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 82505, down 20; SMM semi - water copper average discount was - 10, down 30; SMM premium copper average premium was 80, down 40; SMM mixed copper average discount was - 60, down 45; SMM Guixi copper average premium was 100, down 40; EQ copper average discount was - 130, down 80; SMM RMB Yangshan copper average premium was 412.49, an increase of 0.19; SMM Yangshan copper (warehouse receipt) average premium was 53, unchanged; SMM Yangshan copper (bill of lading) average premium was 58, unchanged [2] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spreads - Shanghai copper near - month minus continuous - first was - 50, an increase of 50; continuous - first minus continuous - second was 20, down 30; continuous - second minus continuous - third was 0, an increase of 60 [2] 3.4 LME Copper Futures - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 10205, down 70.5; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 38.91, down 7.36; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 50.2, down 10.22; the Shanghai - LME copper price ratio was 8.0813, an increase of 0.03 [2] 3.5 COMEX Copper - COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 4.8275, down 0.06; total inventory was 315206, an increase of 4055 [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall before mainly laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78000 - 81000 and the resistance level around 83000 - 86000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9800 - 10000 and the resistance level around 10500 - 10800 for LME copper; the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]