0 Sat all the VH FF 60033226 NO.LONII "H wa 专艺 and the state of the state of the r 11 随着全球金融市场持续波动，美国国债收益率的走向再次成为焦点。瑞典北欧斯安银行（SEB）最新发布的报告指出，该行依然预计美国十年期国债收益率 将在2026年第一季度回落至约三点九的水平，但同时也承认当前的市场环境让这一判断更具挑战性。 SEB研究部首席策略师Jussi Hiljanen在报告中提到，要实现这一收益率目标，关键在于市场重新建立对美联储降息路径的信心。近期，美联储官员多次发表 偏鹰派的讲话，强调需要关注通胀黏性以及经济表现的韧性，这使投资者对未来货币政策方向的判断更加谨慎。收益率因此维持在相对高位，也让预测的落 地增加了不确定性。 总体来看，SEB的观点属于基于宏观趋势的中性判断：既没有对短期市场波动做过度解读，也没有忽略政策预期变化可能带来的影响。在全球货币政策方向 仍未完全明朗的背景下，类似的分析为理解债券市场变化提供了有益视角。 未来几个月，美联储表态、通胀数据以及经济活动指标仍将是影响美债收益率走势的关键因素。收益率能否如 ...

格隆汇11月21日｜瑞典北欧斯安银行研究部首席策略师Jussi Hiljanen在报告中表示，仍预计2026年第一 季度美国10年期国债收益率将回落至3.90%，但同时也承认，当前市场环境使这一预测面临挑战。"要 实现3.90%的Q1目标，市场必须重新建立对美联储降息路径的信心，"他指出。近期美联储官员偏鹰派 的言论加剧了短期内的不确定性，但他强调，未来三到四个月内政策立场转向宽松、利率预期下调以及 收益率走低，仍是其基准情景。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Recent liquidity crisis in the US led to a "bond market blood - sucking → risk asset blood - loss" chain. The market is in a capital re - pricing cycle, and the current decline is due to capital cost rather than fundamental deterioration [9]. - The wave of US Treasury issuance and fiscal deficit expansion will strengthen the mid - term pattern of liquidity tightening and asset re - pricing. Dollar liquidity will remain tight from November to December, and rising bond yields will push up global capital pricing and suppress high - valuation assets [9]. - The market is in a phased switch from liquidity flooding to pricing callback. Once fiscal spending resumes and the Fed stops liquidity withdrawal or shifts policy, asset prices will rise again. This is a valuation adjustment, not a structural breakdown [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Yield Review - As of November 7, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 9bp in two weeks, reaching 4.11%. The 2 - year yield rose 7bp and the 30 - year yield rose 11bp compared to two weeks ago [5]. 3.2 US Treasury Market Changes - In late October, the duration of US Treasury issuance slightly rebounded. The issuance amounts were $68.47 billion for 2 - year, $69.902 billion for 5 - year, and $43.95 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US fiscal deficit in September was $197.9 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.78 trillion [5]. 3.3 Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers dropped to 5.738 million contracts. The federal funds rate futures market remained net short, rising to 395,400 contracts [5]. 3.4 US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy 3.4.1 Monetary Policy - On October 30, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00%, and announced to stop balance - sheet reduction in December and reinvest all MBS principal repayments in short - term bonds. Powell emphasized that the decision on further rate cuts in December depends on data [6]. 3.4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of November 5, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance expanded by $37.63 billion in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool expanded by $18.06 billion, increasing short - term uncertainty in the liquidity buffer [6]. 3.4.3 Economic Situation - As of November 1, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.22 (2.13 two weeks ago), indicating short - term economic improvement after stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and bargain hunting, as investors focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation data for September, which will provide clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 1 - Gold momentum trading experienced a collapse and reversal, indicating a technical repositioning in the market after breaking the $4000 level, suggesting a need for a correction [1] - There is skepticism about whether the worst daily volatility has been seen, as further bargain buying may still occur [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and bargain buying, as investors focus on the upcoming U.S. inflation data set to be released on Friday, which will provide clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 1 - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to a softening dollar and increased buying interest at lower price levels [1] - Investors are particularly attentive to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts [1] - StoneX senior analyst Matt Simpson noted a significant shift in gold trading momentum, indicating a technical repositioning in the market after surpassing the $4000 mark, suggesting a potential need for a market correction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Asian currencies and emerging market stocks rose on Monday due to a decline in the US dollar for the second consecutive day, with traders focusing on upcoming US employment data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path [1] Group 1 - The rise in Asian currencies is linked to the recent drop in the US dollar, which has been observed for two days [1] - Traders are particularly attentive to US employment data scheduled for release this week, as it may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [1] - The preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve aligned with expectations last Friday, contributing to the current market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Eugenia Fabon Victorino, the Asian strategy head at Nordea Bank, cautioned that if the US government shutdown delays the employment report, it could increase uncertainty and potentially limit the gains in Asian currencies [1] - The performance of Asian currencies against the US dollar is expected to be influenced by fluctuations in the dollar until Wednesday [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to an expectation of tight supply and demand, but the Fed's hawkish future interest - rate cut path and high copper prices suppressing downstream purchasing willingness may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 82710, down 240 from the previous value; trading volume was 174625, with a decrease of 160268 compared to the previous value; open interest was 23853, down 9473; inventory was 27662 tons, a decrease of 1105 tons; the basis was - 205, an increase of 220 [2] 3.2 SMM Copper Prices and Premiums - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 82505, down 20; SMM semi - water copper average discount was - 10, down 30; SMM premium copper average premium was 80, down 40; SMM mixed copper average discount was - 60, down 45; SMM Guixi copper average premium was 100, down 40; EQ copper average discount was - 130, down 80; SMM RMB Yangshan copper average premium was 412.49, an increase of 0.19; SMM Yangshan copper (warehouse receipt) average premium was 53, unchanged; SMM Yangshan copper (bill of lading) average premium was 58, unchanged [2] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spreads - Shanghai copper near - month minus continuous - first was - 50, an increase of 50; continuous - first minus continuous - second was 20, down 30; continuous - second minus continuous - third was 0, an increase of 60 [2] 3.4 LME Copper Futures - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 10205, down 70.5; LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 38.91, down 7.36; LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 50.2, down 10.22; the Shanghai - LME copper price ratio was 8.0813, an increase of 0.03 [2] 3.5 COMEX Copper - COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on 2025 - 09 - 26 was 4.8275, down 0.06; total inventory was 315206, an increase of 4055 [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall before mainly laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78000 - 81000 and the resistance level around 83000 - 86000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9800 - 10000 and the resistance level around 10500 - 10800 for LME copper; the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

黄金XAU/USD 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点：周四黄金在亚欧盘震荡上行至61.8%黄金分割位后回落，H4周期形成看跌吞没形态，美盘创3722新低后回升，全天波幅398 点，日线收带上下影线小阳线。当前市场聚焦美联储降息路径与地缘政治博弈，金价处于多空拉锯状态。 关键点位与操作建议：上方阻力3757-3760，下方支撑3722-3717，今日以触及阻力/支撑位入场为主——阻力区做空（止损3760，目标70-100点），支撑区做 多（止损3717，目标70-100点）。 三色线策略：H1趋势线维持绿色，昨日3748空单盈利100点离场，今日继续结合M5模型操作。 欧元EUR/USD 三色线策略：H1趋势线绿色，昨日1.3467空单盈利，今日沿用M5模型操作。 镑日GBP/JPY 关键点位与操作建议：上方阻力1.174/1.178，下方支撑1.156/1.161，今日1.171-1.170区域做空（止损1.175，目标30-50点）。 三色线策略：H1趋势线绿色，昨日1.1754空单达成盈利目标，今日参考M5模型短线交易。 英镑GBP/USD 昨日回顾与ETO Markets观点：周四英镑受英国CBI零 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting emphasized the risks of employment slowdown and raised the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious but dovish stance from Chairman Powell [1][2][3] Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations of two more cuts within the year [2] - The statement highlighted the risks of employment downturn, removing previous language about a robust labor market and introducing concerns about slowing job growth [2] Economic Forecasts - The Fed improved GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 while slightly lowering unemployment rate projections for 2026 and 2027 [2] - The dot plot indicated an increase in expected rate cuts for 2025 from two to three, with further divergence in future rate expectations among committee members [2] Powell's Remarks - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating no need for significant cuts at this time and emphasizing a data-dependent approach for future decisions [3] - He noted that while unemployment remains low, there are rising risks, attributing job growth slowdown to factors like reduced immigration and declining labor participation rates [3] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock markets showed mixed results, reflecting market sensitivity to Powell's cautious tone regarding future rate cuts [4] - Market confidence in two additional rate cuts this year increased, although expectations for 2026's rate cuts were pushed back [4] Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. **Soft Landing Scenario**: The economy achieves a soft landing with no major recession, leading to two more cuts this year and three in 2025 [5] 2. **Recession Scenario**: A significant economic downturn occurs, prompting aggressive rate cuts, potentially including a 50 basis point cut [6] 3. **High Inflation Scenario**: Persistent high inflation forces the Fed to maintain higher rates for an extended period [6] - The soft landing scenario is considered the most probable, while the recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as less likely at this time [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **gold market** and its price dynamics influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Trends**: After breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark at the end of August, market attention on gold has significantly increased, aligning with expectations that the price movements are driven by different factors in the first and second halves of the year [2][3]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The conclusion of the China-US Geneva Agreement in May reduced tariff uncertainties, leading to a decrease in the political risk premium that previously supported gold prices [2][4]. - **US Labor Market Data**: A downward revision of US labor market data has raised concerns about economic performance, which in turn supports gold prices as it increases expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The weakening of geopolitical pricing and a significant decline in global demand expectations have contributed to volatility in the commodity markets, including gold [3][4]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates without waiting for significant inflation decreases is a key factor influencing gold prices, with expectations of a terminal rate around 3% [8][9]. - **Inflation and Stagflation**: The current economic slowdown may support gold prices, with market concerns about stagflation, which typically benefits gold [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Long-term Debt Risks**: The resignation of Federal Reserve officials and increasing long-term debt risks have heightened market concerns about the independence of the Fed and the sustainability of developed countries' debt levels, contributing to rising gold prices [6][10]. - **Future Price Predictions**: For 2026, key factors to monitor include US labor data, global long-term debt risks, and geopolitical tensions, which will significantly impact gold prices [5][12]. - **Market Sentiment**: The upcoming US-China meetings may provide optimistic news, but the market has already priced in the easing of trade uncertainties, limiting the potential for significant gold price corrections [10][11]. Conclusion - The gold market is currently influenced by a complex interplay of economic data, geopolitical events, and Federal Reserve policies, with expectations of continued price support in the near term due to anticipated rate cuts and economic conditions. Future price movements will depend heavily on the evolution of these factors.