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太辰光(300570):2025年三季报点评:交付节奏波动,关注MDC业务推进
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The report indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts and target price, while overall performance aligns with expectations despite fluctuations in delivery pace. The industry demand remains strong, with a focus on the advancement of the MDC business [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 885 million, with a growth forecast of 55.7% for 2024, reaching 1,378 million. By 2025, revenue is expected to be 1,817 million, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated at 155 million for 2023, with a significant increase of 68.5% to 261 million in 2024, and further growth to 390 million in 2025, marking a 49.1% rise [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.68 yuan in 2023, increasing to 1.15 yuan in 2024 and 1.72 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 11.4% in 2023 to 22.0% in 2025, and further to 41.8% by 2027 [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 90.56 yuan, with a target price set at 149.21 yuan [5][6]. - The market capitalization stands at 20,569 million yuan, with a 52-week price range of 62.04 to 142.15 yuan [6]. Business Outlook - The report highlights the stable gross margin of 36.15% in Q3, with a net profit margin of 22.83%, indicating robust profitability despite seasonal fluctuations in orders [11]. - The MDC business is expected to gain traction with the introduction of ultra-large-scale clusters and rack-scale servers, positioning the company for better growth in high-density optical connections [11].