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国债期货日报-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 10:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It points out that the short - term bond market lacks positive drivers, but after continuous declines, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. One can attempt bottom - fishing, stagger the purchase intervals for long positions, and control positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, bond futures fluctuated in the morning and tumbled in the afternoon, with all varieties closing down. Spot bond yields rose across the board, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The open market had a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan. The money market tightened marginally, and the DR001 rebounded to 1.44% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Powell stated that the slowdown in the labor market prompts the Fed to cut interest rates. One must remain vigilant about inflation, there is no risk - free path for the Fed, and the stock market seems to be quite highly valued [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The market continued its weakness from the previous day in the morning, and the decline widened in the afternoon due to the rise of A - shares. The central bank continued a small - scale net withdrawal in the open market, and the money market tightened marginally. With 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing tomorrow, attention should be paid to the central bank's renewal scale. Factors such as the new rules on fund redemption fees and the strong stock market still suppress the bond market [3] 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - For TS2512, the price on September 24, 2025, was 102.324, down 0.028 from the previous day, and the contract position increased by 476 to 75,884 hands. For TF2512, the price was 105.54, down 0.105, and the position increased by 1,924 to 146,202 hands. For T2512, the price was 107.62, down 0.135, and the position decreased by 40 to 246,217 hands. For TL2512, the price was 113.99, down 0.55, and the position increased by 1,459 to 168,081 hands. Trading volumes of all contracts decreased [4]