丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 增量资金驱动，3-5Y 普信债相对吸引力凸显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期债市震荡中信用债表现分化，3-5 年期普通信用债的配置吸引力相对凸显。核心驱动在于， 12 月将迎来摊余成本法债基的开放高峰期，这批规模超千亿的增量资金因其负债端特性和运作 规则，天然偏好配置剩余期限相匹配、现金流稳定的高等级普信债，从而对其估值构成支撑。 相比之下，二永债虽存在补涨行情，但其波动较大且受后续基金赎回费率新规等潜在政策扰动。 投资策略上，建议以票息策略为核心，并可重点关注 3-4 年期普信债的骑乘收益机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 增量资金驱动，3-5Y 普信债相对吸引力凸显 [Table_Summary2] 11 月 10 日-11 月 14 日，债市步入定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It points out that the short - term bond market lacks positive drivers, but after continuous declines, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. One can attempt bottom - fishing, stagger the purchase intervals for long positions, and control positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, bond futures fluctuated in the morning and tumbled in the afternoon, with all varieties closing down. Spot bond yields rose across the board, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The open market had a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan. The money market tightened marginally, and the DR001 rebounded to 1.44% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Powell stated that the slowdown in the labor market prompts the Fed to cut interest rates. One must remain vigilant about inflation, there is no risk - free path for the Fed, and the stock market seems to be quite highly valued [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The market continued its weakness from the previous day in the morning, and the decline widened in the afternoon due to the rise of A - shares. The central bank continued a small - scale net withdrawal in the open market, and the money market tightened marginally. With 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing tomorrow, attention should be paid to the central bank's renewal scale. Factors such as the new rules on fund redemption fees and the strong stock market still suppress the bond market [3] 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - For TS2512, the price on September 24, 2025, was 102.324, down 0.028 from the previous day, and the contract position increased by 476 to 75,884 hands. For TF2512, the price was 105.54, down 0.105, and the position increased by 1,924 to 146,202 hands. For T2512, the price was 107.62, down 0.135, and the position decreased by 40 to 246,217 hands. For TL2512, the price was 113.99, down 0.55, and the position increased by 1,459 to 168,081 hands. Trading volumes of all contracts decreased [4]