Group 1 - The core trading logic of methanol futures revolves around the "weak reality" and "strong expectations" in the market, with weak demand and high inventory pressures on the spot market [2] - Methanol supply is high, with port inventories reaching a five-year high and domestic methanol production rates at 86.63% as of September 4, leading to downward pressure on prices [2] - The downstream demand for methanol has not yet entered a peak season, with low operating rates in formaldehyde and acetic acid production, limiting support for methanol prices [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for future improvements in methanol are strong, driven by three core factors: pre-holiday stocking demand, MTO plant restarts, and seasonal gas supply restrictions in Q4 [3] - Iran, a key source of methanol imports for China, is expected to limit natural gas supplies before December, potentially leading to reduced methanol production [3] - The market has begun to factor in expectations of overseas winter gas restrictions earlier than usual, with trading activity reflecting concerns about future supply reductions [4] Group 3 - Seasonal trends indicate that methanol futures contracts typically exhibit "high contango," influenced by seasonal supply fluctuations and pre-holiday stocking [4] - There is an expectation that methanol inventories may decrease in September as MTO plants restart and demand improves, potentially alleviating supply pressures [4] - The market's focus will be on whether expectations regarding gas restrictions and production restarts are realized, which could lead to significant opportunities in the methanol market [5]