1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Methanol: Neutral with a slightly bullish bias [3] - Thermal Coal: Neutral [3] - Domestic Supply: Bearish [3] - Import: Bullish [3] - Downstream Demand: Bullish [3] - Upstream Profit: Bearish [3] - MTO Profit: Bullish [3] - Inventory: Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has no new maintenance units this week, and some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance. Overseas device operating rates are low, and short - term imports are expected to remain low. - Traditional downstream demand is gradually recovering after the Spring Festival, while MTO demand is weak. There are expectations of MTO device restarts. - Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and methanol is in a high - level shock. The port inventory is expected to decline, and methanol is expected to be slightly stronger, with limited downside space [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Supply - **Domestic Supply**: As of the week ending March 12, the national methanol device operating rate was 76.3%, with coal - based methanol at 84.5%, coke - oven gas - based at 55.4%, and natural gas - based at 37.1%. The domestic operating rate has declined, and short - term device changes are small, with some devices having short - stop plans. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the domestic spring maintenance [9][13]. - **Overseas Supply**: Iranian methanol devices have a low operating rate. Some Iranian devices restarted last weekend, but most are still shut down. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping situation. Devices in other countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States also have some shutdowns or low - load operations [18][19]. Raw Materials - **Coal Price**: Coal prices have recently weakened. Port coal inventories remain high, daily consumption has declined, and the support during the peak season has weakened. Short - term coal prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. - **Methanol Profit**: With the weak operation of coal prices and the rebound of domestic methanol prices, the profits of coal - based methanol devices have strengthened significantly. The profits of natural gas - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol devices have also improved. As of March 10, the profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol was 99 yuan/ton, that of southwest natural gas - based was 100 yuan/ton, and that of Hebei coke - oven gas - based was 380 yuan/ton [32]. Demand - **MTO Demand**: As of March 12, the MTO operating rate was 78.1%, and the operating rate of externally purchased methanol - to - olefins devices was 70.3%, remaining stable. Two coastal MTO devices have not restarted. The profit of East China MTO devices has recently rebounded significantly. There are expectations of MTO device restarts, and attention should be paid to the implementation [43][44]. - **Traditional Downstream Demand**: Traditional downstream demand continued to recover last week, especially the operating rates of formaldehyde and MTBE. Although the profits of traditional downstream industries have been compressed with the rebound of methanol prices, the current profits are relatively higher than last year. Traditional downstream procurement sentiment is slightly better, and the procurement volume is relatively stable. However, inland orders have declined slightly [51][56][66]. Inventory - **Port and Inland Inventory**: Last week, the port inventory was 129.3 million tons, and the port's tradable inventory was 63.6 million tons. Both ports and the inland area have seen inventory declines. With the reduction in imports, the port inventory is still expected to decline, and the inland area is also expected to continue to reduce inventory as traditional demand recovers [76]. - **Downstream Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventories of MTO sample enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers have significantly decreased. Demand is gradually recovering, but high - pressure suppresses the replenishment willingness, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs [83]. Market Structure - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The spot basis has recently remained stable, restricted by high inventories. However, with the expectation of reduced imports and declining port inventories, the basis is expected to strengthen. The 5 - 9 spread has fallen after a significant increase and is currently in a high - level shock. It is advisable to conduct positive spreads on dips [94]. - **PP/L - 3MA Spread**: The PP/L - 3MA spread has recently rebounded. The olefin end is relatively strong due to the rebound of crude oil prices and the reduction in petrochemical production, while methanol is relatively weak due to high - inventory pressure. The spread is expected to continue to widen in the short term [100]. Balance Sheet The report provides a methanol balance sheet from July 2025 to June 2026, including data on total production, imports, total supply, consumption, MTO demand, traditional demand, total demand, surplus/deficit, year - on - year production growth, and year - on - year consumption growth [105].

Group 1 - The core trading logic of methanol futures revolves around the "weak reality" and "strong expectations" in the market, with weak demand and high inventory pressures on the spot market [2] - Methanol supply is high, with port inventories reaching a five-year high and domestic methanol production rates at 86.63% as of September 4, leading to downward pressure on prices [2] - The downstream demand for methanol has not yet entered a peak season, with low operating rates in formaldehyde and acetic acid production, limiting support for methanol prices [2] Group 2 - Market expectations for future improvements in methanol are strong, driven by three core factors: pre-holiday stocking demand, MTO plant restarts, and seasonal gas supply restrictions in Q4 [3] - Iran, a key source of methanol imports for China, is expected to limit natural gas supplies before December, potentially leading to reduced methanol production [3] - The market has begun to factor in expectations of overseas winter gas restrictions earlier than usual, with trading activity reflecting concerns about future supply reductions [4] Group 3 - Seasonal trends indicate that methanol futures contracts typically exhibit "high contango," influenced by seasonal supply fluctuations and pre-holiday stocking [4] - There is an expectation that methanol inventories may decrease in September as MTO plants restart and demand improves, potentially alleviating supply pressures [4] - The market's focus will be on whether expectations regarding gas restrictions and production restarts are realized, which could lead to significant opportunities in the methanol market [5]