周五（10月10日）夜盘，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，主力合约小幅 收涨0.83%，报2314.00元/吨。 对于后市走势，格林大华期货表示，甲醇下游表现为旺季不旺，节后港口和产区均累库。8月进口量 175.98万吨，环比增加59%。原油价格下跌带动烯烃弱势运行，甲醇价格重心继续下移，参考区间2250- 2350。 供应方面，五矿期货指出，随着装置集中回归国内开工大幅走高，国内企业生产利润依旧较好，供应将 维持高位。进口端到港，整体供应压力较大。 需求方面，中辉期货分析称，需求端有所好转，其中MTO外采装置负荷回升，浙江兴兴重启；传统下 游利润相对较低，综合加权开工负荷维持偏弱。 库存方面，截至2025年10月9日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在154.32万吨，较上一期数据增加5.10万吨。其 中，华东地区累库，库存增加4.78万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加0.32万吨。 ...

宝城期货能化板块数据周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 10 日 能化板块 核心观点 能源化工：受美国联邦政府陷入"停摆"影响，节后国内外原 油期货价格呈现偏弱格局。其中，国内原油期货 2511 合约跌幅较大。 在弱势成本因素凸显的背景下，拖累其他能源化工商品期货也出现弱 势下行的走势。除了成本因素外，其他商品受库存回升压制，继续维 持偏弱姿态运行。短期来看，成本因子依然是决定后市能化商品走势 的重要因素，预计在原油期货价格偏弱拖累下，下周能化商品期货板 块或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 10 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.10.10」 甲醇市场周报 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2601合约短线预计在2270-2350区间波动。 3 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：节后甲醇现货市场状态偏弱。下游前期备货较为充足，假期内消化在途货源为主，近 期分散采购，贸易商以及甲醇企业依然积极放量出货，贸易商长约之下参与竞拍补货理性为主。 目前西北至山东运费价格低位，且贸易商及企业积极出货状态下，下游实单成交价格被动下跌。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，整体产量小幅增 加，下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，或将使得国内甲醇装置产能利用率继 续提升，产量增加。假期期间下游提货节奏放缓、提货量有限，内地企业库存整体表现为增加， 但内蒙古部分烯烃集中外采提振，同时贸易环节合同量偏少刺激产区上游提货节奏，西北地区企 业库存不增反降。甲醇港口库存积累，其中华东地区集中卸货 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/26 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/25 | -95.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2025/09/29 2025/09/26 ...

后市来看，随着外盘伊朗装置开工恢复及到港稳步兑现，甲醇港口大幅累库稳步兑现。近期随着浙江兴 兴开工MTO开工回升，下游需求随着甲醇期价大跌利润改善但复苏缓慢，短期国内高开工、高库存仍 对期价形成压制，节后期价震荡偏弱，甲醇2601运行区间2250-2500，关注节后传统下游开及去库情 况。 甲醇期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 广州期货 节后甲醇期价震荡偏弱 中财期货 节后甲醇预计维持偏弱震荡态势 东海期货 预计甲醇震荡偏弱为主 广州期货：节后甲醇期价震荡偏弱 10月9日盘中，甲醇期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至2276.00元。截止发稿，甲醇主力合约 报2291.00元，跌幅2.09%。 中财期货：节后甲醇预计维持偏弱震荡态势 内地甲醇市场窄幅震荡。节后甲醇累库，港口高库存压制下，价格承压，短期未有有效去库路径，但受 到内外限气预期支持，预计震荡偏弱为主。等待中长期布局多单机会。 当前甲醇港口仍面临天量库存较难处理，节中物流受限，预计港口大量库存问题仍存。假期原油价格先 跌后涨，整体来看呈现小幅下跌状态。节后甲醇预计维持偏弱震荡态势，关注宏观及伊朗限气预期。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可能支持 9 月不降息。2）美国政府关门逾一周还无解：参议院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。3）美 国国会预算办公室：上财年美国联邦政府预算赤字 1.8 万亿美元，与 2024 财年近乎持平。 4）普京：必须确保特别军事行动设定的所有目标都无条件实现。俄副外长：俄美元首会晤 推力已基本耗尽，"战斧"导弹可致局势本质变化。5）消息人士称哈马斯已同意加沙停火协 议，特朗普：以色列与哈马斯已签署"20 点计划"第一阶段协议，本周末或去中东。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍以托底为主。而海 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for September 30, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Power Coal - The power coal data shows the basis from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis gradually decreased from -95.4 yuan/ton on September 23 to -102.4 yuan/ton on September 29, while the spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month remained 0.0 [2] Group 3: Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, data on fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented. The basis and price ratios of these commodities changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 15.24 yuan/ton on September 23 and 13.03 yuan/ton on September 29 [7] Chemical Commodities - In the chemical sector, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided. The basis of these commodities fluctuated from September 23 to September 29, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber decreased from -825 yuan/ton on September 23 to -825 yuan/ton on September 29 [9] - The cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of chemical commodities are also given. For cross - period spreads, different spreads such as 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month are shown for various chemicals. For cross - variety spreads, spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol are presented with their values changing from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [11] Group 4: Black Metals - The black metal data includes cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as basis data. For cross - period spreads, values for 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month(10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month(10) minus 5 - month are given for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For cross - variety spreads, ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil are presented. The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal also changed from September 23 to September 29, 2025 [20][21] Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - In the domestic non - ferrous metal market, the basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The basis values of these metals fluctuated during this period [28] London Market - In the London market, data on LME non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. Information such as LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss are given for September 29, 2025 [33] Group 6: Agricultural Products - The agricultural product data includes basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads. For basis, values of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are shown from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads are calculated for different months (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for various agricultural products. The cross - variety spreads such as the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, etc. are also presented with their values changing over the period [38] Group 7: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures data includes basis and cross - period spreads. The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided from September 23 to September 29, 2025. The cross - period spreads of the next - month minus the current - month and the next - quarter minus the current - quarter are given for these stock index futures [49]

金融期货早评 宏观：微光初现，政策托底 【市场资讯】1）中国央行：要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，用好证券、基金、保险公司 互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，抓好各项货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应。2）国 务院国资委召开国有企业经济运行座谈会：要带头坚决抵制"内卷式"竞争。3）"反内卷"初 露锋芒，中国 8 月规模以上工业企业利润同比大增 20.4%，创 2023 年 12 月以来最高增速， 扭转 7 月下滑 1.5%的势头。4）上海出台住宅品质提升新规，高品质住宅标准明确，阳台 面积计算方式重大调整。5）特朗普放狠话，政府关门要关就关、全怪民主党，众院拟休会 到下月；报道称特朗普拟周一在白宫约见国会两党领袖，应对关门危机；美国政府关门风 险高企，美联储依赖的 9 月非农就业报告或被迫延迟发布。6）美联储青睐通胀指标美核 心 PCE 物价指数 8 月环比增 0.2%符合预期，消费支出连续三个月增长。7）白宫称特朗普 的药品关税不适用于欧日等贸易协议方，不是 100%是 15%。8）特朗普芯片新政：要求生 产商国内产量与进口 1:1，未达标将征关税。9）美国司法部向最高法院表示：市场不会被 特朗普解雇库克吓到。美 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 基本面改善有限，甲醇或延续震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 在供需改善带动甲醇港口实质性去库前，甲醇期货价格或区 间震荡，可考虑卖出宽跨式策略。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，甲醇基本面改善有限，甲醇期货震荡整理，至周五下 午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2356 元/吨，较前一周下跌 0.08%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇装置复产多于检修，甲醇产量上升，供给端 仍缺乏持续性支撑。甲醇下游需求延续稳中偏好的态势，下游烯 烃开工率提升较为明显。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存 下降，企业待发订单量上 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin market continued to rebound overnight. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking. Attention should also be paid to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Due to the cost - driven nature, polyolefins may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7159, 7197, and 7225 respectively, with price drops of - 10, - 12, and - 6, and declines of - 0.14%, - 0.17%, and - 0.08% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 195523, 9491, and 39, and open interests were 554591, 46752, and 172, with changes of - 7269, 245, and 3 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 38, - 28, and 66 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6893, 6936, and 6908 respectively, with price drops of - 5, - 5, and - 6, and declines of - 0.07%, - 0.07%, and - 0.09% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 229349, 14353, and 521, and open interests were 609770, 78694, and 2230, with changes of - 18267, 1335, and 351 respectively. The current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 28, and 15 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6475 yuan/ton, 586 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6730 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of methanol futures and PP recycled materials remained unchanged, while Shandong propylene decreased by 10 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased by 3 dollars/ton, North China powder decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and plastic film remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Consumption Information - On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [2].