Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) 2026 Conference February 18, 2026 07:10 AM ET Company ParticipantsGhislain Houle - CFOJamie Lockwood - VP of Investor Relations and Special ProjectsConference Call ParticipantsNone - AnalystNone - AnalystModeratorTopical. With us, we have Ghislain Houle and Jamie Lockwood. Ghislain is the CFO, Jamie is newly appointed IR, so congrats onGhislain HouleThank you.Moderatoryour new feat, and I'll turn it over to Ghislain, who has some opening comments.Ghislain HouleWe ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin is highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments, particularly in the current environment where institutional investment and spot ETFs are influencing market dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Macroeconomic Drivers - The recent 5% movement in Bitcoin is significantly impacting investor behavior, attributed to the influx of capital from institutional vehicles [2] - A key driver for the rise in Bitcoin's value is the better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed some measures below the anticipated 2.5%, leading to increased expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Lower anticipated discount rates due to a decline in longer-duration bond yields by approximately five basis points (0.05%) have contributed to a rally among speculative assets, making riskier investments like Bitcoin more attractive [6] Group 2: Market Positioning - Bitcoin remains nearly 50% down from its peak of around $125,000, suggesting it may be a distressed asset worth reallocating capital towards, especially if investor sentiment continues to favor risk-on positions [7] - The potential for a continued rally in Bitcoin is supported by alleviating concerns in other tech market areas, indicating a shift in investor positioning towards riskier assets [7]

Core Insights - Norfolk Southern reported lower income and revenue in the fourth quarter, indicating challenges in the current macroeconomic environment [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in both income and revenue during the fourth quarter [1] - Chief Executive Mark George described the operating environment as volatile and challenging [1]

Core Viewpoint - Meritage Homes (MTH) is currently experiencing challenges due to a difficult macroeconomic environment, particularly high interest rates affecting affordability and sales, while large buyer incentives are compressing margins [1] Company Summary - The company is facing headwinds from affordability constraints linked to elevated interest rates, which are negatively impacting sales [1] - Large buyer incentives are being utilized, but these are adversely affecting profit margins [1] Industry Context - The broader macroeconomic environment is tough, contributing to the challenges faced by companies in the housing sector, including Meritage Homes [1]

Group 1 - Meritage Homes (MTH) is currently facing challenges due to a tough macroeconomic environment, particularly high interest rates affecting affordability and sales [1] - Large buyer incentives are negatively impacting profit margins for the company [1] - The stock is trading at a level that may present investment opportunities despite the current headwinds [1]

Core Insights - Marriott International, Inc. is a leading global hospitality company facing competition from major hotel chains like Hilton and Hyatt [1] - Barclays maintains a "Negative" grade for Marriott, with a price target increase to $276 from $274 [1][6] - Despite Barclays' cautious stance, significant institutional investments have been made in Marriott, indicating strong interest [2][3][6] Investment Activity - B. Riley Wealth Advisors Inc. acquired 3,507 shares valued at approximately $958,000 during the second quarter [2] - Norges Bank made a significant investment, purchasing a new stake worth $639 million [2][6] - Alliancebernstein L.P. increased its stake in Marriott by 194.7%, now owning over 1.7 million shares valued at $407 million [3] - Kingstone Capital Partners Texas LLC acquired a new stake valued at approximately $266 million [3] - Wellington Management Group LLP increased its holdings by 16.4%, reflecting strong institutional interest [3] Stock Performance - Marriott's stock reached a new 52-week high following an upgrade by The Goldman Sachs Group, which raised its rating from neutral to buy with a price target of $345 [4][6] - On the day of the upgrade, the stock traded as high as $310.23, with over one million shares exchanged [4] - However, the stock has experienced a decline of approximately 8% over the past week [4] Revenue Outlook - Management announced at a Barclays conference that fourth-quarter revenue per available room (RevPAR) is expected to be at the lower end of their guidance range [5] - The company faces a challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly in the U.S., where RevPAR growth has slowed [5] - Despite these challenges, international markets have shown modest growth, and investors are weighing short-term weaknesses against Marriott's robust development pipeline and strong cash generation capabilities [5]

Labor Market Overview - The White House announced the likely absence of the October Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report due to a government shutdown, casting doubt on the previously reported strong September data [1] - The ADP private sector jobs report, based on anonymized payroll data from over 26 million U.S. private-sector employees, is a trusted non-government source for labor data [3] Job Losses and Sector Performance - Private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, with significant losses in construction, manufacturing, professional/business services, and information services [5] - Job declines were uneven across sectors, with construction losing 9,000 jobs, manufacturing losing 18,000, and professional/business services losing 26,000, while natural resources and mining added 8,000 jobs [7] Regional Job Trends - The Northeast and South experienced steep job losses, with New England laying off 50,000, the Mid-Atlantic cutting 49,000, and the South Atlantic losing nearly 80,000 jobs; in contrast, the Midwest and West reported job gains of 45,000 and 67,000, respectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - Rush Enterprises is facing challenges due to a downturn in the trucking market, influenced by a difficult macroeconomic environment, with ongoing pressures on US employment and manufacturing [1] Company Summary - Rush Enterprises (RUSHB, RUSHA) is experiencing significant pressure from the trucking market downturn [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, which may continue to affect the market in the near future [1] Industry Summary - The trucking market is currently under pressure, which is exacerbated by broader economic challenges [1] - There are growing concerns regarding US employment and manufacturing, indicating potential ongoing difficulties for the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rush Enterprises is facing challenges due to a downturn in the trucking market, influenced by a difficult macroeconomic environment, with ongoing pressures on US employment and manufacturing [1]. Company Summary - Rush Enterprises (RUSHB, RUSHA) is experiencing significant pressure from the trucking market downturn [1]. - The current macroeconomic conditions are expected to continue affecting the market negatively in the near future [1]. Industry Summary - The trucking market is under strain due to broader economic challenges, including employment and manufacturing pressures in the US [1].

Company Overview - Gordon Ramsay's restaurant empire has cut almost 200 jobs, representing nearly 10% of its workforce, due to significant losses of £13.2 million in 2024, compared to £3.7 million the previous year [2][3][4] - The company employed 1,168 staff in 2024, down from 1,344 in the previous year, marking the largest job cuts since the COVID-19 pandemic [2][3] Financial Performance - The losses of £13.2 million in 2024 are attributed to a challenging macroeconomic environment, higher energy costs, and wage inflation [4][5] - The UK hospitality sector is experiencing strain from rising cost pressures, with estimates indicating an additional £3.4 billion in costs imposed on restaurants, pubs, cafes, and bars due to recent budget changes [5][6] Operational Changes - The majority of job cuts occurred in the restaurants rather than the head office, with a focus on reducing front-of-house staff in casual dining chains due to rising costs and changing customer expectations [3][4] - Gordon Ramsay has increased prices at his restaurants to cope with rising costs, with a notable example being a £325 Christmas Day meal at his Michelin-starred Petrus restaurant, up £35 from two years ago [7] Business Structure - Gordon Ramsay Restaurants, founded in 1998, is one of the UK's largest private restaurant companies, operating 33 restaurants in the UK, including high-profile locations like the Savoy Hotel and Heathrow Airport [7][8] - In addition to the restaurant business, Ramsay's empire includes a television production company that reported a profit of £7.1 million from revenues of £60.6 million last year [9]