Trade Live, it's time for the big picture. So, let's welcome in the one and only Joe Mola, head trading and derivative strategist over at Charles Schwab. Joe, we've distanced ourselves from that 200 day. We've distanced ourselves now from 6,500 even.I'm just wondering, you know, what the technical shelf is here that you're looking at. >> Uh, it's interesting. I mean, uh, if we had this conversation on Monday or Tuesday, I would have said, "Hey, keep an eye on that Monday low." Uh, that that print that we pu ...

Market Breadth Is Holding Up. But Things Are Weird Under the HoodCONCLUDEDStock Market News From March 17, 2026: Dow Gains Ahead of Fed MeetingLast Updated:4 hours agoMarket Breadth Is Holding Up. But Things Are Weird Under the HoodByConnor SmithStocks were mostly rising on Tuesday, but things were a bit unusual under the hood.With the Dow up 128 points, or 0.3%, only half the stocks in the index were rising. The S&P 500, up 0.3%, included 370 gainers. The Nasdaq Composite had risen 0.4%. The Russell 2000 w ...

Market Performance - 66% of S&P 500 stocks are outperforming the index year-to-date, marking the highest level since data collection began in 1986, with a significant increase from 29% in 2023 and 2024 [1][5] - Non-US equity funds experienced inflows of US$17 billion last week, the second-highest on record, driven primarily by South Korean and Japanese funds [3][4] Earnings Estimates - Emerging Market (EM) earnings estimates are rising at a year-over-year rate of 31%, indicating the fastest growth compared to other regions [2][5] Investment Strategies - Historical data shows that stocks down 55-60% recover 74% of the time, while those down 65-70% recover 67%, and stocks down 75-80% recover 62%, suggesting that buying the dip in high-quality businesses can be effective [4][11]

Core Insights - The year 2025 saw a significant shift in market dynamics, with international equities outperforming U.S. stocks for the first time since 2009, as the MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Index returned over 30% compared to the S&P 500's 17% [1] - Tactical asset allocation strategies yielded meaningful benefits, particularly for higher risk portfolios that capitalized on international equity performance [1] - The performance of low-beta equities was anomalously poor in 2025, diverging from historical trends, which may indicate a potential resurgence in low-beta stocks in 2026 [1][2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index underperformed the S&P 500 by over 6%, while the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index underperformed by 14%, and the S&P 500 High Beta Index nearly doubled the market's performance [1] - The relationship between high and low-beta equities has historically mean-reverted, suggesting a possible recovery for low-beta stocks in the upcoming year [1][2] Economic Outlook - The intertwining of market and economic fates suggests that the stock market poses the biggest risk to the economy in 2026, despite macroeconomic conditions not being worrisome at present [1] - The wealth concentration among the affluent continues to drive consumption, with equities representing a higher percentage of individual net worth than real estate at the end of 2025, a scenario last seen in 1999 [1] AI and Investment Themes - Skepticism remains regarding the returns on massive capital investments in AI, as evidenced by Oracle's stock performance post-announcement of its data center build-out [2] - The lack of consistent market breadth has been a concern, with a small number of large companies driving index returns, while smaller-cap companies have not consistently benefited from lower rates [2] Sector Insights - Emerging themes in investment portfolios include Biotech and Clean Energy, both of which have shown recent momentum despite being historically volatile sectors [2][3] - Japan's corporate transformation, driven by regulatory changes, is expected to enhance shareholder value and improve market performance [3]

For years, loading up on the biggest US technology stocks delivered a steady stream of riches — and avoiding them was a surefire ticket to the unemployment rolls. In 2026, the opposite has been true. Mutual fund managers who cut exposure to the volatile tech stocks that have roiled markets this year have been on a tear. Nearly 60% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks, the highest share since 2007, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Large-cap core and growth managers ha ...

Here is the big question in this AIdriven bull market now in year four. Is this still a starters only rally where the mega caps do most of the work or is a bench finally scoring. Relative strength is one of the cleanest ways to check that and that's what we're digging into in today's stocks in translation.Now relative strength is simple. You take one price and divide it by another price. Do that for each day's close in two different markets and you'll get one line that goes up, goes down, or goes sideways o ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that market collapses often occur quietly and are preceded by structural weaknesses that are not immediately visible to investors [2][10] - Investors tend to focus on price movements, which reflect past performance, rather than underlying market structure, which can indicate future trends [5][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historical examples illustrate that significant market declines often happen after prolonged periods of apparent stability, where underlying issues go unnoticed [1][8] - Modern market structures, including passive investing and concentration in a few large companies, increase the likelihood of silent collapses [3][6] Group 2: Indicators of Market Health - Key indicators to monitor include breadth versus index levels, liquidity measures, leadership concentration, short interest in quiet stocks, option skew, and credit spreads [6][8] - A rising index with declining breadth is a reliable warning sign of potential market trouble [6] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors often miss quiet collapses because they are conditioned to expect dramatic events, leading them to overlook subtle signs of deterioration [7][10] - The financial media tends to focus on more sensational metrics, which can distract from critical underlying market conditions [7] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to evaluate position sizing based on liquidity rather than conviction and to stress test portfolios for adverse conditions [9] - Shifting focus towards companies with strong balance sheets and countercyclical cash flows is recommended to mitigate risks associated with crowded trades [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends and performance metrics within the investment banking sector, highlighting key financial indicators and market movements. Financial Performance - The investment banking sector has seen a significant increase in revenue, with a reported growth of 15% year-over-year, reaching $50 billion in total revenue [1]. - Major firms in the sector have reported strong earnings, with an average earnings per share (EPS) increase of 10% compared to the previous quarter [1]. Market Trends - There is a noticeable shift towards digital transformation in investment banking, with firms investing heavily in technology to enhance operational efficiency and client engagement [1]. - The demand for sustainable investment products is rising, with a 25% increase in assets under management (AUM) in ESG-focused funds over the last year [1]. Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes are impacting the investment banking landscape, with new compliance requirements expected to increase operational costs by approximately 5% for major firms [1]. - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to these regulatory changes to maintain competitive advantage in the market [1].

Market Breadth and Participation - Market breadth is improving, indicating more stocks are participating while major indices remain stable, suggesting the correction experienced in November has concluded [1] - The number of S&P 500 stocks reaching 1-month highs is increasing, which is a bullish signal [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point, which is historically bullish for equities when occurring within 2% of an all-time high in the S&P 500 [2] - Interest rate cuts near market highs have historically led to positive annual gains for the S&P 500 [2] Market Sentiment - Despite major equity indices being at or near all-time highs, market sentiment remains muted, as indicated by the CNN Fear & Greed Indicator showing a "neutral" reading, which is a bullish contrarian sign [3] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Hecla Mining (HL) gained 13% in the precious metals sector - Dollar General (DG) increased by 5% in discount retail - Ciena (CIEN) rose by 8.5% and is up 189% year-to-date in fiber optics - Bloom Energy (BE) is up more than 7% in data center energy - Tech Solutions (FIGR) is up more than 6% following its recent IPO in the financial sector [7][8] Overall Market Outlook - The combination of improving market breadth, supportive interest rates, and cautious sentiment creates a bullish backdrop for U.S. equities, strengthening the foundation for further market gains [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the anticipated collapse of the AI bubble has not occurred, as the markets are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the S&P 500 nearing previous highs [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 is close to returning to its prior highs, indicating a robust market performance [1] - Investors may consider taking profits as market breadth improves, suggesting a more favorable investment environment [1] AI Sector - Some previously favored AI stocks are still underperforming, referred to as being in the "doghouse," indicating ongoing challenges within the AI sector despite overall market gains [1]