Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) has raised its quarterly dividend to $1.0568 per share, up from $1.0065, despite a 5% decline in its stock year-to-date compared to a 7% rise in the S&P 500, primarily due to a revised fiscal year outlook reflecting a slowdown in consumer demand [2][11] - The current valuation of P&G stock appears reasonable, with potential for appreciation despite minor concerns [2][11] - P&G's operational performance and financial stability remain solid, although revenue growth has been weak in recent years [3][5][7] Growth - P&G has experienced an average growth rate of 1.8% in its top line over the last three years, compared to a 5.5% increase for the S&P 500 [7] - Revenues have declined by 0.2% from $84 billion to $84 billion in the past 12 months, against a growth of 5.5% for the S&P 500 [7] - Quarterly revenues dropped by 2.1% to $20 billion in the most recent quarter from $20 billion a year prior, while the S&P 500 saw a 4.8% increase [7] Profitability - P&G's profit margins are around the average level for companies within the Trefis coverage universe, with an operating income of $20 billion reflecting a moderate operating margin of 23.8% [6] - The company's net income amounted to $15 billion, resulting in a high net income margin of 18.5%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [13] Financial Stability - P&G's balance sheet appears sound, with total debt of $34 billion and a market capitalization of $370 billion, leading to a strong debt-to-equity ratio of 9.1% compared to 19.4% for the S&P 500 [13] - Cash and cash equivalents constitute $9.1 billion of the $123 billion in total assets, resulting in a moderate cash-to-assets ratio of 7.4% [13] Downturn Resilience - P&G stock has shown slightly better performance than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24.3% compared to 25.4% for the S&P 500 from April 2022 to October 2022 [9][13] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by May 2024 and has since risen to approximately $160 [13] Overall Assessment - P&G's performance across critical factors is strong, with a current valuation suggesting a potential upside of 15% from its current position [11][10]

The biggest risk isn’t a market crash.It’s you not being able to sit through one. ...

Economic Outlook - The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is decreasing from a peak of 60% to below 50% due to the Trump administration easing aggressive tariff policies, which has allowed the S&P 500 to recover from a correction in March [1] Company Analysis Walmart (WMT) - Walmart has historically thrived during recessions due to its essential grocery offerings and reputation for affordability, attracting budget-conscious customers [3] - Approximately two-thirds of Walmart's inventory is produced in the U.S., providing a buffer against global trade tensions [4] - Over the past year, Walmart has achieved a 47% return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 10% return, with analysts optimistic about steady growth in the coming months [4] HCA Healthcare (HCA) - HCA Healthcare is the largest non-governmental hospital chain in the U.S. and has shown resilience during economic downturns, particularly in critical care sectors [5] - The company reported a remarkable growth of +236.97% and aims for a 29% market share by 2030 [5] - Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for HCA from $405 to $444, indicating a potential 16% upside from the stock's previous closing price [6] Waste Management (WM) - Waste Management has experienced a +135.87% growth over the past five years, as demand for waste collection and recycling services remains stable during recessions [9] - The waste management industry is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% by 2030, driven by advancements in recycling technologies and increasing environmental awareness [10] - Recent evaluations by JPMorgan indicate optimism regarding WM's growth prospects, with a valuation of approximately 16x forward-year EV/EBITDA and a free cash flow yield of 3% [11]