Key Takeaways Crypto investment funds saw outflows slow sharply to $187 million last week despite ongoing price pressure. Bitcoin led outflows with $264 million, while altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Ethereum attracted inflows. Record ETP trading volume of $63.1 billion and European inflows signal a possible shift in market sentiment. Crypto investment products experienced a significant slowdown in outflows, totaling $187 million—a sharp drop from the billions seen in prior weeks. This deceleratio ...

The crypto selloff has been deeper than anticipated, but Tom Lee sees price and timing align for a potential bottom. Crypto Selloff Deeper Than Expected… In a CNBC Squawk Box interview on Monday, Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and CIO of Fundstrat Capital, said crypto's recent decline exceeded expectations despite solid fundamentals. He attributed the weakness to risk appetite rotating into gold and silver, which surged early in the year and sparked fear of missing out. Don't Miss: ...

Core Viewpoint - May soft red winter wheat futures are presenting a potential buying opportunity due to recent price strength and market conditions [1]. Technical Analysis - Prices for May soft red winter wheat futures have been trading sideways at lower levels for four weeks, indicating a potential market bottom and the beginning of a price uptrend [2]. - The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is currently bullish, with the blue MACD line above the red trigger line and both trending upwards [2]. - A breakout above the chart resistance level of $5.33 would empower bullish sentiment and create a buying opportunity, with an upside price target of $5.80 or higher [4]. - Technical support is identified at the contract low of $5.13, where protective sell stops can be placed [4]. Fundamental Factors - Global geopolitical risks, the potential for winterkill in parts of Asia and the U.S. due to extreme cold weather, and the likelihood of fund short covering are considered bullish factors for the wheat futures market [3].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts believe the altcoin bear market may be entering its final phase despite a 30% drop in market capitalization from this year's peak, indicating potential investment opportunities for patient investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Only about 3% of altcoins on Binance are trading above the 200-day moving average, marking a historical low, attributed to a lack of liquidity and defensive investor sentiment prioritizing capital preservation [3]. - The majority of altcoins are trading well below their long-term averages, reflecting widespread undervaluation driven by negative sentiment, with strong fundamentals in coins like XRP, TON, and ADA failing to translate into price recovery [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Historical comparisons suggest that weak market periods often create attractive opportunities for patient investors, with such phases potentially lasting longer if the market enters a prolonged bear phase [5]. - Fear and lack of interest from retail investors often signal the best price zones for large investors to accumulate, as retail participation tends to return with early signs of market recovery [6][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Multiple technical indicators suggest that the altcoin bear market may be nearing its end, with current market capitalization levels acting as strong support, described as an "area to hold" by market analysts [8].

Has the market bottomed?!There is a lot of data that suggests so.... https://t.co/pok9xwV19Y ...

Core Insights - Approximately 1/3 of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently held at a loss, indicating significant market stress as the asset faces downward pressure in November [1][2] - Despite the current decline, experts express cautious optimism, suggesting that the market may be nearing a bottom and could signal a potential recovery [1][2] Market Performance - Bitcoin has experienced a 17% decline over the past month, briefly falling below the $100,000 mark during the November crypto crash, resulting in a substantial portion of the market facing unrealized losses [2] - Data indicates that over 28% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held at a loss, reflecting stress for buyers who purchased at higher prices [2][4] Historical Context - Historical trends suggest that high levels of supply held at a loss often coincide with local market bottoms rather than further breakdowns during bullish cycles [3][4] - Analyst MorenoDV notes that such conditions can lead to seller exhaustion, where prolonged declines push long-term holders to take profits and newer investors to sell at break-even points [4][6] Psychological Factors - The current market environment reflects a balance between fear and patience, which could either lead to further selling or renewed conviction among long-term investors [5][6] - If sentiment does not recover and holders continue to de-risk, it may signal the end of favorable market conditions, while extreme fear could lead to a durable bottom and the next accumulation phase [6] On-Chain Data Insights - Recent on-chain data shows Bitcoin's Net Taker Volume fell to -53 million on an hourly basis, indicating strong selling activity but also suggesting potential seller exhaustion as selling pressure reaches extreme levels [7] - Analysts point to signs of a classic exhaustion phase, where positive developments fail to lift prices and negative news triggers immediate sell-offs, indicating weakening buying momentum [8]

Market Sentiment - Crypto social media is showing a spike in "buy the dip" calls as Bitcoin drops 5% [1] - Santimentfeed suggests this could signal more downside ahead, indicating that peak buying interest does not equal market bottom [1] - A real market bottom often forms when the crowd loses hope and becomes afraid to buy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kohl's stock appears to have reached a bottom after years of challenges, with a significant price surge indicating potential for growth and dividend resumption [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Kohl's stock price increased over 40% in a single day, confirming support at long-term lows [1]. - The stock is considered a candidate for speculative positions, but investors are advised against chasing the price due to expected volatility [2][3]. - Short interest remains high at nearly 50%, which poses risks for future price movements [3]. Group 2: Analyst and Institutional Activity - Analyst activity shows a mix of price target reductions and reaffirmations, indicating a market bottom but not robust bullish sentiment [5]. - Institutions own 98% of Kohl's stock and have been buying consistently, providing a supportive market environment [7]. Group 3: Dividend and Financial Outlook - Kohl's dividend yield is currently at 4.06%, with an annual payment of $0.50 and a payout ratio of 45.87%, suggesting the dividend is sustainable for the near term [8]. - The company expects a return to growth, with profits anticipated in the full-year guidance, although significant growth may not materialize until fiscal year 2026 [9]. - Despite a decline in cash and total assets, the company has reduced debt and liabilities, maintaining a healthy balance sheet [10]. Group 4: Market Trends and Risks - The market is experiencing resistance at critical levels, with potential for sideways price action or a dip to retest support [11][12]. - The long-term downtrend remains intact, and short-sellers may have begun to reposition at higher levels, limiting upside potential in the near term [11].

Market Overview - The first quarter of 2023 was challenging for US investors, with US equities underperforming international equities for the first time in years, as the S&P 500 Index declined by approximately 4% and the Nasdaq 100 fell by around 7% due to fears surrounding the Trump tariff plan and high tech sector valuations [1] - Despite the bearish sentiment, some analysts believe the market may have already bottomed, citing that many tech stocks have seen declines of 50% or more [1] Historical Performance - Historical data suggests that stocks tend to perform well in April following a significant decline in March. Specifically, after a drawdown of 3% or more in March, stocks have averaged a gain of 5.92% in April and a 17.95% gain by the end of the year [2][3] - The average performance of the S&P 500 after a March decline of 3% or worse since World War II shows a consistent pattern of recovery [3] IPO Market Insights - The IPO market is currently strong, indicating positive market sentiment. New companies going public reflect optimism about future growth, and recent IPOs like CoreWeave and Newsmax have shown significant price increases, with Newsmax rising over tenfold since its debut [4] - Tesla has also demonstrated a shift in market behavior, achieving higher price levels while the broader market has declined [4] Market Sentiment Indicators - The VIX term structure has inverted, indicating extreme levels of fear in the market, which historically has been a strong signal for market bottoms [6] - Notable insider buying activity in companies such as IonQ, Oklo, and Reddit suggests management's confidence in their stocks, as insiders typically buy shares with the expectation of profit [8] Technical Analysis - The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF experienced a "hammer candle" pattern after briefly dropping below March lows, which is often indicative of a market reversal and potential bottoming [9] Conclusion - Despite a difficult first quarter characterized by tariff uncertainties and high valuations, various indicators such as historical seasonality, a robust IPO market, and VIX signals suggest that a market bottom may be approaching [10]