TimesSquare Capital Management, an equity investment management company, released its “U.S. Focus Growth Strategy” fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The strategy returned -3.55% (gross) and -3.76% (net) in the fourth quarter compared to a -3.70% return for the Russell Midcap Growth Index. In 2025, the strategy returned 14.84% (gross) and 13.88% (net) compared to 8.66% for the index. Global equity markets ended the quarter on a positive note, with Europe leadin ...

Justin Bergner, Portfolio Manager at Gabelli Funds says a 10-15% pullback could be ahead and shares exactly where smart investors should be investing before the market turns around. ...

分组1 - Beyond Meat is launching a new protein-packed sparkling beverage aimed at competing with energy drink brands like Celsius and Red Bull, indicating a strategic shift for the company [1] - CrowdStrike's CEO highlights the cybersecurity risks associated with AI agents, emphasizing the need for security measures to mitigate potential business risks [4] - Perella Weinberg's CEO expresses optimism about the M&A outlook for 2026, citing strong equity and credit markets along with a favorable regulatory environment as key drivers for increased transaction activity [5] 分组2 - BitWise's CIO predicts that Bitcoin will decouple from traditional stocks, driven by unique factors such as fiscal debasement and institutional investment, suggesting Bitcoin's maturation as a distinct asset class [3] - Thinkorswim's founder anticipates a potential market pullback in early spring, indicating that many stocks are fairly priced and a downside momentum could lead to a sell-off of 10% to 15% [6][8]

But one of our next guests sees the S&P 500 falling next year with a target of 6,500. Joining us now, Steve Sausnik, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers and Bridge Corana, Wellington Management, fixed income portfolio manager. Great to have you both here on set.We have a full house. Um Steve, I'm going to start right there with you because you are a bit at a consensus here with what you expect for stocks next year. How much of this does hinge on what we are seeing right now in the bond market and as we ...

Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is expected to fall next year with a target of 6,500, indicating a bearish outlook for the stock market [1] - The bond market is a significant factor influencing stock performance, with expectations of a strong first half of the year due to fiscal stimulus and reduced tariff headwinds [6][8] Bond Market Insights - The target for the 10-year yield is around 4.45%, suggesting a shift away from inflation concerns at the Fed level, which may lead to rising inflationary expectations [3] - Long yields are remaining relatively unchanged while front-end yields are increasing, indicating a recognition of strong growth in the first half of the year [6] Economic Conditions - The first half of next year is anticipated to experience strong growth and inflation, while the second half may see weaker growth and disinflation due to potential fiscal contraction following the midterm elections [8][9] - The timing of the transition between strong and weak economic conditions will depend on corporate guidance and economic indicators [10] Corporate Performance - Companies' outlooks on spending, particularly regarding investments in AI, will be crucial in shaping market expectations [11] - Concerns have been raised about rising expenses for firms like JP Morgan, which may impact their efficiency and overall performance [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market pullback is seen as a healthy development, indicating a shift in sentiment towards higher quality companies, which have underperformed in the past six months [1][2][3]. Market Sentiment and Valuations - There has been a notable underperformance of higher quality names, suggesting a shift in market sentiment where valuations and balance sheets are gaining more attention [2]. - The speculative and aggressively valued stocks have driven the market to recent highs, leaving higher quality companies behind [3]. Economic Indicators - A stabilization in the labor market, particularly in small businesses and cyclical sectors, is necessary for higher quality companies to thrive [5]. - The ideal scenario for these companies would be a "Goldilocks" environment, where economic conditions are neither too hot nor too cold [4][6]. Recession Risks - There is a 45% probability of recession within the next 12 months, which is considered uncomfortably high compared to other Wall Street estimates [6]. - Current labor market conditions show some cracks, and clarity is expected in the coming weeks regarding the labor market's direction and potential productivity gains from AI investments [7].

and Megan, uh, even with today's uh, bounce in the, uh, in the indexes, you still have the S&P down 2% on the week, almost 5% off of its highs. Has this pullback um, kind of changed the riskreward in your view or or given a signal as to where to go next within the market. >> Yeah, I think this has been a bit of a healthy development for the market.We've been watching with a bit of trepidation that the market just keeps continuing to climb higher and it's been a pretty significant momentum trade. I think wha ...

Market Overview - Stocks are experiencing a decline, with November on track to be the worst since 2008, indicating significant market challenges for bulls [1] - The market closed below the 50-day moving average, raising concerns about technical damage and weak breadth [1][2] Technical Analysis - Historical patterns suggest that after recovering from a 19% decline earlier in the year, the market typically sees a further advance before entering a new decline of 5% or more [2][3] - A decline of about 9% from the October lows could be consistent with historical trends following a post-correction recovery period [5] Market Breadth - Currently, only 27% of the S&P 1500 subindustries are above their 50 and 200-day moving averages, indicating a weak market breadth [5] - A significant oversold condition is suggested when this figure drops to around 10% [6] Employment Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - Positive employment data could bolster market sentiment, with expectations for a potential Fed rate cut in December [6] - A weak jobs report that does not indicate a recession could provide the Fed with the confidence to act, as bull markets typically do not end due to age but rather due to fear of recession [7][8] Valuation Concerns - The S&P technology sector was trading at a 73% premium to its 20-year average forward PE on October 29, which has since decreased to a 58% premium [9] - Even when considering a five-year average, the sector still shows a 14% premium, indicating potential overvaluation that may need correction [10]

Stocks are moving lower here, close to session lows in early trade as November gets a little uglier for the bulls. We are on pace for the worst November since 2008. Let's bring in Sam Stovall, CFR research chief investment strategist.Sam, it's good to get your take on this market. We closed below that 50-day. A lot of discussion about uh difficult technicals, weak breadth, and now we lost this support that we've had last couple Fridays.How much technical damage is getting done. >> Well, I think a lot, Carl. ...

Market Dynamics - Market pullbacks are a natural occurrence and often lead to opportunities for investors who respond with discipline rather than emotion [3][11] - During market downturns, many investors experience loss aversion, which can lead to poor decision-making and emotional paralysis [2][4] - Professionals differentiate between fundamentally broken positions and those with intact investment theses, allowing them to make informed decisions during pullbacks [9][10] Investment Strategy - Successful investors treat pullbacks as stress tests to evaluate the structural value of their holdings, identifying which positions are based on solid fundamentals versus those driven by market noise [5][11] - Professionals do not liquidate all positions but strategically trim weak structures while maintaining strong ones, ensuring they protect gains [6][12] - The key to capitalizing on market pullbacks lies in preparation and having a clear plan for buying and selling, rather than reacting emotionally [12][13] Opportunities in Pullbacks - Pullbacks create unique buying opportunities as forced sellers and mechanical rebalancing can lead to undervalued assets being overlooked [11][12] - Investors who prepare in advance can act decisively when others are paralyzed by fear, allowing them to seize opportunities that arise during market volatility [12][13] - The market rewards those who maintain structure, discipline, and a well-defined investment process during turbulent times [13]