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The economy continues to have a tremendous amount of momentum, says Morgan Stanley's Daniel Skelly
CNBC Television· 2025-09-26 12:47
Market Overview & Economic Outlook - Market experienced minor declines, around 1% or less, but this reflects recent market trends [1] - The economy maintains significant momentum, supported by GDP revisions [2] - AI super cycle continues to drive growth in mega-cap tech stocks [2] - A consolidation period is expected, but the strength of the economy and the AI sector suggest it won't be a major correction [3] Investment Strategy & Sector Focus - Today is generally a good day to invest for long-term goals like retirement, savings, and college [3] - For those nearing retirement, a more conservative approach focusing on dividend growth or dividend income stocks is advisable [4] - Healthcare sector is currently undervalued, trading at its lowest relative weight in the S&P since 1994, with big pharma trading at approximately a 30% discount to the S&P [8][10] - Healthcare sector is expected to be positively transformed by AI [11] Bull Market & Historical Context - Historically, bull markets have an average length of about 8 years; the current bull market is approximately 2 and a half years old since the Chat GPT lows in October/November 2022 [5] - The NASDAQ is trading about 12% above its 200-day moving average, which is less extended compared to the technology sector in 1999 [6] Risk Factors & Confidence Level - Geopolitical risks, particularly in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, are concerning and could impact oil prices [14][15] - High confidence in avoiding a recession and limiting drawdowns to a maximum of 5-10% [16]
Aliaga: We are in a capital spending boom, bigger than the Apollo program
CNBC Television· 2025-08-27 11:55
AI Theme & Market Focus - The market is heavily focused on whether mega-cap tech companies, particularly AI superstars, can exceed high expectations, with investors demanding "straight A pluses" [2][3] - The AI theme's ability to continue powering ahead regardless of economic slowdown or political factors is being questioned [8] - The focus is shifting to the return on investment of AI, highlighted by debates around the GBT5 launch and reports on AI pilot project success [1] Industrial Sector & Capital Spending - The industrial sector is gaining attention as a beneficiary of the significant capital spending boom related to AI infrastructure buildout [4][5] - Capital spending related to AI infrastructure surpasses the Apollo space program, with companies spending over $250 billion (inflation-adjusted) annually [5] - Industrials, including energy transmission, data center cooling, and related equipment, are poised for further growth as investors diversify exposure beyond mega-caps [6] Market Leadership & Risk - Strong tech fundamentals could lead to a shift in market leadership back to tech [9] - Investors are seeking quality and defensiveness amid economic and political risks [8] - Currency and bond markets pose a risk to equity markets, reflected in the steepening yield curve and a lower dollar [11][12] Nvidia Expectations - Very high revenue growth expectations for Nvidia, with estimates of 53% year-over-year increase [3]