作者：Penny 有悲观者认为，OpenAI 的护城河看不到了。模型没有壁垒，ChatGPT 没有网络效应，流量和算力 比不过 Google，高价值任务落后于 Anthropic。 客观说，这些因素是有道理的，2026 年刚过一个月，模型的格局不仅没有更稳定，反而更激烈 了。这也是 OpenAI 这个公司自发布 ChatGPT 以来，第一次打这种逆风局。 但我们对 OpenAI 还是抱有乐观信心，认为 2026 年能迎来叙事反转。以下是我们的 9 个关键判 断。 Insight 01 OpenAI 受到 Gemini 的影响有多大？ OpenAI 受到 Gemini 的影响主要来自三个方面：叙事、模型、流量。 从叙事上看，影响最大。Google 王者归来，让 OpenAI 跌落 SOTA 位置。也让大众意识到，OpenAI 从 4o 之后一直没发出大幅提升的模型， 不是 scaling 出了问题，而是 OpenAI 的 scaling 出了问题。 叙事直接体现在股价上，Google 自 Gemini 3 发布后涨了 20%，软银（OpenAI 在二级市场的映射）跌了 17%。 Google 王者归来，Anth ...

Sequoia Capital 在 2026: This is AGI 这篇文章中断言 AGI 就是把事情搞定（Figure things out）的能力。 如果说过去的 AI 是 Talkers 的时代，那么 2026 年则是 Doers 的元年。转变的核心载体正是 Long Horizon Agents（长程智能体）。这类 Agent 不再满足于 对上下文的即时回复，而是具备了自主规划、长时间运行以及目标导向的专家级特征。从 Coding 到 Excel 自动化，原本在特定垂直领域爆发的 Agent 能 力，正在向所有复杂任务流扩散。 作为 LangChain 的创始人，Harrison Chase 一直处于这场变革的最前沿。本文编译了 Sequoia Capital Sonya Huang & Pat Grady 访谈 Harrison Chase 的最新播 客。作为站在 Agent 基础设施最前沿的先行者，Harrison 揭示了为什么 Agent 正迎来其爆发的"第三个拐点"。 核心 Insight 提炼： •Long Horizon Agents 价值在于为复杂任务提供高质量初稿； •Agent ...

Summary of China Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Semiconductors - **Key Themes**: AI, memory, localization, and domestic substitution are driving growth in the semiconductor sector for 2026 [3][12][14] 2025 Review - **Domestic Substitution**: Continued to enhance in 2025 amid trade tensions, with a focus on domestic AI and memory super cycles [2][14] - **Performance**: Positive reactions from Chinese semiconductor stocks during trade tensions; however, some misjudgments on specific stocks like Cambricon and Silergy [2][19] - **Key Players**: NAURA, AMEC, Piotech, SMIC, Hua Hong, Hygon, and Horizon Robotics were highlighted as outperformers [10][17] 2026 Outlook - **Growth Projections**: Anticipated strong beta for China Semiconductors driven by AI, memory, and localization themes [3][4] - **Semicap Sector**: Expected EPS growth of ~30% with a potential P/E re-rate contributing another ~20% upside; NAURA and AMEC are top picks [4][10] - **AI Chips**: Cambricon's sales projected to double in 2026, with significant growth potential into 2027/28; Hygon expected to grow slower due to its existing CPU revenue base [5][49] - **Foundry Sector**: SMIC and Hua Hong expected to benefit from increased demand and capacity expansion [6][10] - **Smart Driving Chips**: Weaker new vehicle sales anticipated, but smart driving penetration expected to accelerate; Horizon Robotics positioned well against competitors [7][10] - **Analog Sector**: Recovery expected to be moderate due to weak macro conditions and high inventory levels; Silergy's performance remains uncertain [8][10] Investment Implications - **Ratings**: NAURA, AMEC, Piotech, SMIC, Hua Hong, Cambricon, Hygon, and Horizon Robotics rated as Outperform; Silergy as Market-Perform; Black Sesame as Underperform [10][12] Key Risks and Considerations - **Market Sentiment**: Long-term investors should be cautious about timing profit-taking if the market overheats [3][10] - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Local supply chain developments are crucial, with expectations of significant growth in local AI chip production capacity by 2028 [25][26] - **NVIDIA H200 Sales**: Potential government regulations on NVIDIA H200 sales to China could impact local players' revenue growth [27][10] Additional Insights - **AI Narrative**: The "DeepSeek moment" in early 2025 marked a significant shift in market perception regarding China's AI capabilities, expanding the total addressable market for semiconductors [15][24] - **Memory Sector**: China's NAND production is expected to accelerate, with YMTC's technology returning to Global Tier 1 levels, creating competitive advantages [16][65] - **Localization Trends**: Continued emphasis on localization in semiconductor production, particularly in DRAM and matured logic sectors [66][10] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the China semiconductor industry, highlighting growth opportunities, investment implications, and potential risks for 2026.

Core Argument - Societies' choices about what to remember and forget shape their present and future, influencing their self-perception and direction [2][9][29] - Preserving sites of mass violence, like Gulag heritage sites, is crucial for uncovering hidden evidence, facilitating remembrance, and educating future generations [11][12][21] Significance of Gulag Heritage Preservation - Gulag sites contain physical evidence, such as artifacts and structural remains, that supplements archival records and reveals the realities of life in the camps [13][15][17] - Visiting Gulag sites allows individuals to connect emotionally with the past, mourn losses, and protest against authoritarianism, fostering a deeper understanding beyond historical texts [18][19][20] - Preserving Gulag heritage educates people about the atrocities of the past, promoting critical thinking and preventing future acts of repression and violence [21][24][25] Implications for Society - Examining Gulag heritage encourages reflection on the diverse forms and consequences of repression, fostering a sense of vigilance against societal regression [25] - Combining historical research, archaeology, memory work, and heritage preservation provides a comprehensive understanding of the past, encompassing emotions, experiences, and individual stories [26] - Remembering past suffering can serve as a warning, guiding societies towards peace and freedom by highlighting the stakes involved in historical memory [28][29]

[music] In my trio, we joke that each of us lives in a different time. [snorts] One brother lives in the future, eyes always on what's next, dreaming things into being. The other lives rooted in the now. Steady, present, always noticing what's right in front of us. And I'm the past. I walk into each moment already thinking about how it will end. And I try quietly, deliberately, to prepare it to become something I'll miss someday. I think that people assume nostalgia just happens to us. But I learned from a ...

I have three superpowers. Want to know where I got them from. Well, I got them from bird watching.Once my dad and I went to the park together. We were happy. We saw the birds that we normally see, but this time was different.We saw a bird that we never seen before. And that's how I and that's the moment that I found out my first superpower. The power to focus.I was focused. Then I looked at it. It had a orange beak, brownish body, and white cheeks.I didn't know what was it. So I was trying to know. So I was ...

[music] This year marks This year marks the forgetting of World War II. The forgetting of the biggest war in human history. The forgetting of a war that touched the lives of hundreds of millions of people and shaped the fate of whole empires and nations, including Japan's.How could we forget a war that had so much destruction. How could we forget a war that shaped the world we live in today. The international politics, domestic politics, so much of our society.How can we forget a war that has so many lesson ...

Good night everyone. My name is Sophiki and today I'll be talking to you guys about how music heals what words head. Did you feel that.Something has changed. But not only in her but also in us. This lady, she had a severe Alzheimer and she doesn't remember her family, her loved ones.She doesn't remembers nothing. But when this music starts to play, she starts to remember the movements and everything of this ballet cor choreography. And this is not magic. This is music.And on this talk, I'll be taking to you ...

btw if you squint, you'll note that the above implies that you must be unique and distinctotherwise you won't be memorable and the brain will override the space it has preserved for youremember: "did this stick in their brain?"that's it, nothing else ...

Personal Development & Leadership - The core message emphasizes the importance of self-awareness and authenticity, urging individuals to act in accordance with their true selves to achieve extraordinary results [1][2] - The industry highlights the significance of personal storytelling as a unique selling proposition (USP), fostering trust, followership, and memorability in a noisy world [5] - Effective communication, particularly through language, is crucial for breaking down barriers, showing respect, and fostering a sense of belonging, which can significantly impact business and personal relationships [12][14] - Selling, defined as conveying intrinsic value with clarity and confidence, is a constant aspect of life, applicable in various contexts from job interviews to personal relationships [20][22] - Embracing rejection and learning from losses are essential for personal and professional growth, fostering resilience and discipline [26][27] Networking & Relationship Building - Memory, cultivated through reading and writing, is vital for building strong relationships and networks based on trust [36] - Networking is presented as a critical skill for survival and opportunity creation, emphasizing the importance of giving before asking and building trust through consistent generosity [37][42] - Alliances and relationships are crucial for success, highlighting that trust underpins lasting transactions and partnerships [39][40] - Strong networks provide access to ideas, introductions, and support, enabling individuals to achieve greater reach and avoid failure [41]