Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$1.1 trillion / $144.0 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$921.6 billion / $118.6 billion - **Current Price**: HK$43.20 - **Target Price**: HK$56.50 (implying 30.8% upside) [1][5] Key Industry Insights - **Smartphone Market**: Expected to face near-term speed bumps but favorable risk-reward on a 12-month basis [1] - **AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things)**: Projected revenue growth of 6% in 3Q25 and 9% in 2026, with sequential growth accelerating [10][51] - **EV (Electric Vehicle)**: Anticipated first-time IFRS net profit of Rmb0.7 billion in 3Q25, driven by higher operating leverage [16] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024: Rmb365.9 billion - 2025E: Rmb465.3 billion - 2026E: Rmb595.1 billion - 2027E: Rmb710.8 billion [5][13] - **EBITDA**: - 2024: Rmb30.8 billion - 2025E: Rmb55.3 billion - 2026E: Rmb62.6 billion - 2027E: Rmb79.4 billion [5][13] - **EPS (Earnings Per Share)**: - 2024: Rmb1.07 - 2025E: Rmb1.57 - 2026E: Rmb1.91 - 2027E: Rmb2.38 [5][13] Margin and Profitability - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Expected to decline to ~10% in 2026E due to rising memory costs, compared to ~11% in 2H25E [10][19] - **Net Profit Resilience**: Core net profit expected to remain flat year-over-year in 2026E, supported by increased contributions from AIoT and internet services [10][19] Competitive Landscape - **Market Position**: Xiaomi's comparative advantages expected to strengthen against peers due to larger scale and ecosystem [10][19] - **Smartphone Contribution**: Smartphone gross profit contribution is projected to decrease to 24% of total gross profit by 2026E [47] Challenges and Risks - **Memory Cost Pressure**: Anticipated challenges in mass model shipments due to rising memory costs, with a significant impact on pricing strategies [30][32] - **Inventory Management**: Longer inventory days observed, which may affect gross profit margins [21][26] Upcoming Events to Monitor - **Singles' Day GMV**: Key indicator of consumer demand and sales performance [17] - **3Q25 Results**: Scheduled for late November, expected to provide insights into revenue and profit growth [17] - **EV Manufacturing Capacity**: Progress on ramping up manufacturing capacity and new model launches [17][18] Summary of Key Metrics - **P/E Ratio**: 16.6 for 2024, increasing to 25.3 in 2025E [11] - **CROCI (Cash Return on Capital Invested)**: Expected to be 21.7% in 2024, declining to 29.8% by 2027E [11] - **Free Cash Flow Yield**: 7.2% in 2024, decreasing to 2.4% in 2026E [11] Conclusion - **Investment Outlook**: Despite short-term challenges, the long-term risk-reward profile for Xiaomi remains favorable, with a target price indicating significant upside potential [1][5]

1 October 2025 | 1:07AM KST Equity Research South Korea Technology: September 2025 memory pricing: Server demand driving solid memory pricing upcycle TrendForce noted conventional DRAM pricing rose 10-15% qoq in 3Q25 and expects it to rise another 8-13% qoq in 4Q25, slightly higher compared to what we expect for SEC in 3Q25, but broadly inline for 4Q25. For NAND, TrendForce noted NAND ASP rose 3-8% qoq in 3Q25 and expects stronger pricing growth of 5-10% qoq in 4Q25 mainly due to strong demand for eSSD. The ...