资金正在围绕成本传导能力与供给保障能力重新定价。高通上周四股价下跌逾8%，原因是这家智能手机处理器厂商警告称，内存约束将限制手机生产。任 天堂在提示短缺将对利润率造成压力后，次日股价创18个月来最大单日跌幅。 终端厂商陷入盈利困境 存储芯片短缺限制产量和产品价格上涨侵蚀利润等问题在企业财报和电话会议中被频繁提及。 除了游戏主机厂商任天堂和智能手机芯片巨头高通，多个行业的终端设备制造商都在感受压力。大型PC品牌和苹果供应商的股价因盈利能力担忧出现下 滑。罗技等PC外设厂商的前景因更高的芯片价格抑制PC需求而黯淡。 DRAM现货价格在过去几个月飙升逾600%，把存储芯片短缺推向"超级周期"的叙事，也在股市中制造出罕见的胜负分化：存储厂商股价冲高，消费电子与 手机、PC产业链公司则承受盈利挤压。 据彭博数据，全球消费电子制造商相关指数自9月底以来下跌12%，而包括三星在内的存储厂商股票指数同期上涨超过160%。 市场目前关注供给紧张持续时间。Fidelity International基金经理Vivian Pai表示，市场在估值中更多计入"1到2个季度内扰动将正常化"的情形，但她认为行业 紧张可能持续，甚至贯穿今年 ...

on 05-Feb-2026 4 February 2026 Global Memory MEMORY TRACKER (Jan): Parabolic price hike continues Mark Li +852 2123 2645 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman +1 212 845 7822 mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA +852 2123 2623 edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2123 2669 yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com April Li +1 917 344 8339 april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun +1 917 344 8481 phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com This monthly tracker (download dataset here) summarizes spot and contract price data relea ...

8 February 2026 | 9:32PM KST Equity Research GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY: SEMICONDUCTORS - MEMORY Global Memory S/D update and BOM cost analysis: Expect further tightness across DRAM, NAND, and HBM; reiterate Buy on Samsung, Hynix, SNDK, Tokyo Electron, Ulvac, and Disco We update our S/D model post 4QCY25 earnings of major memory players, where we now expect even tighter S/D across DRAM, NAND, and HBM for 2026E/2027E. With the tighter S/D, we believe memory companies will continue to enjoy significant pricing upside, ...

9 February 2026 | 12:18AM EST Equity Research Bottom line: (1) Robust AI-driven demand & disciplined supplier actions should keep DRAM supply tight & prices elevated for the next ~2 years; (2) AI infrastructure buyers are likely to absorb higher memory costs in order to prioritize on-time GPU deliveries; (3) Beyond constraints in DRAM, several other critical data center physical infrastructure components also face multi-month to multi-year backlogs. Katherine Murphy +1(212)902-1151 | katherine.a.murphy@gs.c ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **DRAM and NAND memory market**, highlighting the impact of **AI-driven demand** and supplier self-discipline on supply and pricing dynamics [1][3][4]. Key Points - **Supply Tightness and Pricing**: Strong AI-driven demand and supplier self-discipline are expected to maintain tight DRAM supply and high prices for approximately the next two years [1][3][4]. - **Increased Costs for AI Infrastructure**: Buyers of AI infrastructure may incur higher memory costs to ensure timely GPU delivery [1][3][4]. - **Order Backlogs**: Multiple critical components for data center physical infrastructure are facing order backlogs ranging from months to years, exacerbating supply constraints [1][5]. - **Delivery Cycle Extension**: The delivery cycles for DRAM and NAND have extended to several months, reminiscent of the COVID-19 pandemic period [2][4]. - **Structural Shortage in IT Hardware**: The IT hardware industry is entering a structural shortage phase due to severe supply-demand imbalances in the memory sector driven by AI infrastructure needs [4]. - **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Supply Issues**: HBM is particularly constrained due to packaging complexity and yield learning curve issues, impacting availability [4]. - **Long-term Agreements Preferred**: Memory buyers are increasingly favoring long-term agreements over spot pricing, focusing on production commitments, priority access, and quota guarantees [4]. - **Cost Sharing by OEMs**: Companies like Dell are expected to pass on increased component costs to customers by raising deployment service prices or financing rates, distributing higher costs over 3-5 year contracts [5]. - **Component Shortages**: The industry faces order backlogs for several key components, including turbines, transformers, advanced packaging, power supplies, liquid cooling components, fans, optical switches and fibers, network interface cards (NICs), and racks [5]. - **Chinese Suppliers' Role**: Some manufacturers are considering certifying Chinese suppliers like Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) for low-end markets, but high-end AI ecosystems will still rely on leading suppliers due to the lack of competitive HBM products from these Chinese firms [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Mitigation Opportunities**: There are potential opportunities to offset rising memory costs through "de-specing" AI infrastructure, which includes redesigning power systems, optimizing cooling infrastructure, and network architecture [4].

截至2026年2月9日收盘，科创芯片设计ETF天弘(589070)换手13.99%，成交9229.10万元，市场交投活跃。跟踪的上证科创板芯片设计主题指数(950162) 强势上涨4.07%，成分股芯原股份上涨14.87%，国芯科技上涨12.85%，复旦微电上涨9.65%，灿芯股份，澜起科技等个股跟涨。 截至2月9日，科创芯片设计ETF天弘(589070)最新规模达6.54亿元，创成立以来新高。科创芯片设计ETF天弘(589070)近1周份额增长2800.00万份，实现 显著增长。 资金流入方面，科创芯片设计ETF天弘(589070)近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"4384.05万元。 【产品亮点】 NAND市场的供需格局同样大幅收紧。高盛预计2026年/2027年NAND供不应求幅度为4.2%/2.1%，高于此前预期的2.5%/1.2%。这将是NAND行业历史上 最大规模的短缺之一。 高盛将2026年/2027年HBM TAM（总体可寻址市场）预期上调8%/9%，至540亿美元/750亿美元（此前为500亿美元/690亿美元）。 【机构观点】 华泰证券指出，微软、Meta、谷歌、亚马逊2025年 ...

因此，其PC相关业务的利润表现最值得市场关注。据联想集团Q2财报显示，其包含个人电脑及其相关 业务在内的智能设备业务集团(IDG)的运营利润率为7.3%，本季度能否延续这一表现备受市场关注。联 想能否通过独特的库存策略抵消成本增量，成为Q3利润端的最大看点。 全球存储芯片行业正迎来前所未有的"超级周期"。AI基础设施需求爆发引发的存储产能"虹吸效应"， DRAM、NAND、HBM(高带宽内存)等核心品类价格飙升。因此，终端设备与基础设施厂商的利润成为 资本市场最为关注的焦点。 本周四(2月12日)，全球最大的个人电脑制造商联想集团(0992.HK)将公布其2025/26财年第三财季(即 2025年第四季度)财报。在被业界称为"存储大爆发"的全球半导体超级周期背景下，这份财报被认为是 资本市场衡量终端设备商与基础设施厂商抵御成本冲击能力的最关键风向标。 分析师指出，联想此次业绩披露不仅关乎其自身的利润水平，更将揭示在全球存储芯片价格非线性飙升 的极端环境下，头部硬件巨头能否利用规模优势和库存策略跨越这一行业周期。 根据彭博社预期，联想集团Q3营收预计将达到约207.6亿美元，较去年同期的188亿美元增长约10. ...

【环球网财经综合报道】高盛日前发布报告称，2026-2027年全球存储器市场将经历史上最严重的供应短缺之一， DRAM、NAND和HBM三大品类供需缺口均大幅扩大。其中，2026年DRAM供应将现15年来最严重缺口，而NAND市 场则将迎来史上最大短缺之一。 据亚洲新闻台报道，内存芯片在全球面临严重短缺，人工智能和消费电子公司正在争夺日渐稀少的供应，预计这将支 持制造商的多年积压订单。摩根士丹利分析师在一份报告中表示："只要人工智能的发展轨迹保持如此强劲，这一状 况可能会持续超过一年，甚至更长的时间。" 报道还提到，存储芯片制造商也因供应短缺受益，供应限制预估将持续到2028年；SanDisk与Kioxia的闪存芯片供应合 同延长至2034年底，分析师普遍上调其股价目标。 ...

Key Takeaways AMAT is set to report Q1 FY26 results on Feb. 12, with revenues expected to decline 3.87% year over year.Applied Materials is seeing strong WFE demand from AI and HPC, led by foundry, DRAM and advanced packaging.AMAT's NAND, display and services businesses are gaining momentum and could support overall segment growth.Applied Materials (AMAT) is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Feb. 12.For the fiscal first quarter, AMAT expects revenues to be $6.85 billion (+/- $500 mill ...

史上最严重存储芯片短缺来袭！高盛上调供需紧张预期，警告2026年DRAM将现15年最大缺口， NAND短缺创纪录。AI服务器需求爆发占据DRAM过半供应。分析师警告，即使在智能手机和PC需求 大幅下滑的极端情景下，强劲的服务器需求仍能吸收冲击，维持市场紧张格局。令人意外的是，高盛在 发布这份看多存储器行业的报告同时，却下调了美光评级至中性，目标价235美元，理由是"大部分利好 已被价格消化"。 高盛警告，市场正处于过去15年来最严重的存储芯片供应短缺前夜。 高盛在2月8日的报告中表示，2026-2027年全球存储器市场将经历史上最严重的供应短缺之一， DRAM、NAND和HBM三大品类供需缺口均大幅扩大。更重要的是，即使在智能手机和PC需求大幅下 滑的极端情景下，强劲的服务器需求仍能吸收冲击，维持市场紧张格局。 然而令市场意外的是，高盛在发布这份看多存储器行业的报告同时，却下调了美光评级至中性，目标 价235美元，理由是"大部分利好已被价格消化"。对投资者而言，这意味着存储器行业景气度确定性 强，但个股估值分化加剧，三星电子、SK海力士等标的更具配置价值。 DRAM供应缺口创15年最严重水平 高盛大幅上调了D ...