May 2, 202 A Server Cost Anaysis Memory s The Biggest Loser //Micron $MU ooks very weak in A minutes 10 comments By and Dyan Pate Gerad Wong Micron $MU ooks very weak in A The rush to buid out datacenters for A training and inference has caused the markets to go crazy. For exampe, Credo () is up 27% in the ast week, but they don't benefit much. n the past, we excusivey expained how they . They aso in the AEC and ACC space. Vicor () is up 0%. Over a year ago, . Whie Vicor has attempted to be designed back in ...

In this report, we try to address the FAQs from investors on the HBM industry in recent weeks: 2026 pricing, base logic die specs and design ownership changes, and the recent CSP capex hike implications to HBM S/D. We maintain our pecking order in the Asian memory space: SKH > SEC > NYT. Technology - Semiconductors Jay Kwon AC (82-2) 758-5725 jay.h.kwon@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch Sangsik Lee J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 20 August 2025 Memory Market U ...

半导体行业 2025 年 8 月 22 日 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/08/08-2025/08/21） 行 业 关注国产算力、存力投资机遇 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 善共同驱动下存储行业投资机遇。 风险提示：贸易形势不确定性导致下游需求存在不确定性的风险、国产替 代进程不及预期的风险、产能持续释放导致竞争加剧的风险等。 请务必阅读末页声明。 2 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2025年8月21日，半导体行业指数近两 周（2025/08/08-2025/08/21）累计上涨9.48%，跑赢沪深300指数5.26个百 分点；2025年以来申 ...

由于美光科技公司（ NASDAQ： MU ）第三财季营收创历史新高，第四财季业绩指引稳健，且 2025 年 HBM 需求前景明朗，分析师重申对其 的强烈买入评级。 在最近的收益更新中，管理层确认2025年的HBM供应已售罄。事实上，HBM的增长非常强劲， 其收入 环比增长了近50% 。 催化剂方面，美光公司正在向四家客户批量出货HBM，其中包括AMD的Instinct MI355X，该产品目前正在量产。HBM4正在向客户提供样 品，华尔街预计其每股收益(EPS)预测值将在2026年上半年左右实现量产。估值也起到了一定作用，目前美光公司的市盈率为16.5倍，而行业 中值为29.8倍。 不利的一面是，由于消费者结构导致平均售价下降，利润率面临压力。此外，供应紧张，尽管管理层预计2026年第一财季情况将有所改善。 为了全面了解该产品线的需求，2025 年的 HBM 供应将完全售罄。从更广泛的 DRAM 和 NAND 领域的需求来看，管理层预计两者都会增长。 我们预计 2025 年行业 DRAM 比特需求增长率将达到高十位数百分比范围，而行业 NAND 比特需求增长率将达到低两位数百分比范 围。 然而，展望2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology, Inc. has demonstrated significant stock performance, trading near its 52-week high, reflecting strong investor confidence and robust fundamentals [1][4]. Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Micron shares have increased by 45%, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's gain of 13.8% [2]. - Major competitors like Advanced Micro Devices, NVIDIA, and Broadcom have seen stock increases of 37.2%, 31.1%, and 27.2%, respectively [2]. Growth Drivers - Micron is positioned at the forefront of transformative tech trends, including artificial intelligence (AI), high-performance data centers, autonomous vehicles, and industrial IoT, which are expected to drive sustainable long-term growth [5]. - The demand for advanced memory solutions, particularly DRAM and NAND, is surging due to the acceleration of AI adoption [5]. - Micron's diversification strategy has shifted focus from volatile consumer electronics to more stable sectors like automotive and enterprise IT, enhancing revenue stability [6]. Product Demand and Innovation - The company is experiencing strong demand for its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products, particularly the HBM3E, which is noted for its energy efficiency and bandwidth suitable for AI workloads [7]. - Micron's role as a core HBM supplier for NVIDIA's upcoming GPUs indicates deep integration within the AI supply chain [7]. - The establishment of a new HBM advanced packaging facility in Singapore, set to launch in 2026, highlights Micron's commitment to scaling production for AI-driven markets [7]. Valuation and Investment Case - Micron's stock trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.79, significantly lower than the sector average of 6.74, making it an attractive option for long-term investors [9][13]. - Compared to peers like Advanced Micro Devices, NVIDIA, and Broadcom, which have P/S multiples of 7.4, 18.87, and 19.07 respectively, Micron's relative valuation supports a buy case [16]. Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a revenue increase of 47% for fiscal 2025 and 34% for fiscal 2026, with EPS expected to improve by 518% and 62% for the same periods [10]. - Micron's fundamentals remain strong, and its established position in the AI-driven memory market suggests compelling long-term growth potential [18].

Group 1 - Major South Korean semiconductor companies, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are slowing down investments in advanced NAND due to high demand uncertainty and a focus on DRAM and packaging sectors [1][2] - Samsung Electronics has been transitioning investments at its P1 and Xi'an NAND factories from 6th and 7th generation NAND to 8th and 9th generation NAND, with conversion investments being more efficient and less costly than building new production lines [1] - The conversion speed for the latest NAND technology is slowing, with the 9th generation NAND conversion at the P1 factory being delayed and the Xi'an factory's X2 production line only planning to execute a minimal scale of 5,000 wafers per month [1][2] Group 2 - A semiconductor industry insider indicated that Samsung plans to continue mass production of older generation NAND on the X2 production line until at least mid-next year due to low demand for advanced NAND [2] - Samsung has decided to postpone the application of hybrid bonding technology for V9 NAND, originally intended for the Xi'an X2 production line, with plans to start using this technology from the 10th generation NAND (V10) at the earliest by mid-next year [2] - SK Hynix is also focusing its investments on advanced DRAM and HBM, with slower R&D progress for V10 NAND compared to Samsung, leading to a cautious investment approach based on downstream demand [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Semiconductor Sector Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **semiconductor industry**, specifically the **memory market**, including **DRAM** and **NAND** segments, as well as **HDD** (hard disk drive) updates. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Pricing Trends**: - Accelerated customer orders from China's subsidy program and end-of-life announcements for legacy DRAM have positively impacted memory prices in CQ2. DRAM prices are expected to increase by **6% Q/Q** in CQ3, while NAND prices may rise by **2% Q/Q** [2][3]. - Limited demand visibility for CQ4 poses a risk to price recovery despite the anticipated increases in CQ3 [3]. 2. **SanDisk Earnings Outlook**: - SanDisk is expected to report revenues of **$1.96 billion** and EPS of **$0.08** for CQ2, surpassing previous guidance. For CQ3, expectations are set at **$2.03 billion** and EPS of **$0.84** [4]. 3. **Competition in HBM Pricing**: - Samsung's increased momentum in HBM3E shipments may lead to moderated pricing for HBM, which could negatively affect competitors like SK Hynix and Micron [5]. 4. **HDD Market Growth**: - The HDD market is projected to grow by **13%** in sales and **21% CAGR** in EB shipments from CY24 to CY28, indicating a robust outlook for HDD vendors [6]. 5. **Valuation Metrics**: - Key valuation metrics for various companies in the semiconductor space are provided, with AMD, Micron, and Western Digital highlighted for their respective ratings and price targets [7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Demand Dynamics**: - The demand for server DRAM is driven by aggressive orders from cloud service providers, with a notable increase in prices due to supply constraints [13]. - Mobile DRAM contracts have surged by **26% Q/Q**, driven by tight supply and impending EOL for LPDDR4x [14]. 2. **NAND Market Trends**: - The mobile NAND segment is facing challenges due to weak smartphone demand, with prices expected to remain flat in CQ3 [19]. - Enterprise SSD prices are projected to increase by **4% Q/Q**, supported by strong demand from North American cloud service providers [18]. 3. **Stock Read-Throughs**: - Micron is rated as Underperform with a target price of **$100**, reflecting cautious views on traditional DRAM and NAND demand in the second half of the year [24]. - SanDisk maintains a Neutral rating with a target price of **$49**, emphasizing the importance of disciplined capital investments in the NAND industry [25]. - Western Digital is rated Outperform with a target price of **$92**, supported by structural changes in the HDD industry and a strong product roadmap [26]. 4. **Future Outlook**: - The report indicates that while there are positive trends in pricing and demand for certain segments, overall visibility into future demand remains uncertain, particularly for non-AI applications [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the semiconductor sector research report, highlighting the dynamics of memory pricing, company earnings expectations, competitive pressures, and market growth projections.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) sectors within the Asia Pacific technology market - **Key Companies Mentioned**: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Winbond, CXMT, and others Core Insights 1. **HBM Pricing Dynamics**: The HBM pricing situation is rapidly changing with competition and market share shifts expected in 2026, but current conditions appear de-risked. Positive cloud capital expenditure (capex) data and tariff relief suggest a return to sustainable HBM returns [1][3] 2. **Structural Rerating Concerns**: The case for a structural rerating in HBM is not well supported, with few changes in market dynamics compared to DRAM. Long-term margin progression is expected to converge, indicating that much of the potential upside may already be priced in [3][10] 3. **DRAM Cycle Outlook**: The growth outlook for DRAM is slipping, with a recovery in the second half of 2025 viewed as overly optimistic. Real demand momentum has slowed, and there is pushback from customers against price hikes of 5-10% for DDR5 contracts [4][21] 4. **NAND Pricing Trends**: Recent contract pricing for NAND settled at a 3-4% quarter-over-quarter increase, lower than previous expectations. The blended average selling price (ASP) for 4Q25 is expected to decline by 0-5% [5][23] 5. **Earnings Upside Potential**: There is a preference for companies like Samsung and Winbond due to potential earnings upside, particularly as Samsung may experience renewed growth surprises in 4Q25 [6][10] Additional Important Points 1. **Market Sentiment and Economic Factors**: The macroeconomic environment, including potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved economic growth expectations, could lead to a rotation back into traditional commodity memory stocks, which have lagged behind AI-driven memory stocks [11][15] 2. **HBM Production Capacity Estimates**: HBM production capacity estimates for major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron show significant growth potential, with total HBM production expected to reach 34,634 million Gb by 2026 [18] 3. **Customer Commitments and Pricing Dynamics**: There are indications of reduced customer commitments and changing pricing dynamics for HBM, with expectations of significant share shifts in the market by 2026 [10][20] 4. **NAND Market Developments**: The demand for eSSD is expected to remain robust, driven by AI infrastructure scaling, while consumer demand for PCs and smartphones is weak. This divergence in demand could impact pricing strategies moving forward [23][24] 5. **Capacity Expansion Plans**: Companies like CXMT are expanding their capacity, but progress is slowing due to qualification processes. Their supply bit growth rate is projected to be around 93% year-over-year in 2025 [22] Conclusion The HBM and DRAM markets are facing significant changes with evolving pricing dynamics, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic influences. Companies like Samsung and Winbond are positioned for potential growth, while the overall sentiment remains cautious due to slowing demand in certain segments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **global semiconductor industry** and the implications of **Section 232 tariffs** on various companies and countries involved in semiconductor manufacturing [3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Implications**: Different treatments across countries may lead to shifts in market shares. The EU has confirmed a 15% flat tariff on chips, while countries like Korea and Japan have varying tariff rates, potentially disadvantaging companies based in Taiwan and Singapore [3][4]. - **Impact on Major Players**: Companies like **TSMC**, **Apple (AAPL)**, and **NVIDIA (NVDA)** may be protected due to their investments in the US, while fabs in Taiwan, such as **Micron**, **UMC**, and **Vanguard**, could face tariffs as high as 100% unless negotiated otherwise [3][4][5]. - **Foundry Dynamics**: TSMC is expected to maintain its market position due to its US investments, while **Samsung Foundry** benefits from recent deals with Apple and Tesla, having 17% of its capacity in the US [4][29]. - **Memory Market**: The price of memory products may rise, particularly affecting **Micron**, which has a significant portion of its capacity in Taiwan. Competitors like **Samsung** and **SK Hynix** may have an advantage due to their domestic capacities in Korea [6][10]. - **US Capacity Growth**: Companies like **Texas Instruments (TXN)** and **Intel (INTC)** are expected to benefit from their substantial US manufacturing footprints, while others like **NXP** may face challenges due to non-US joint ventures [8][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Profitability Concerns**: The tariffs may squeeze profitability and stifle end demand, leading to a need for companies to redistribute costs across the supply chain [10][11]. - **Future Capacity Needs**: The US currently has only about 1% of global DRAM capacity, which is projected to rise to 7% by 2030, but this may still be insufficient to meet domestic needs unless more capacity is built [45][49]. - **Investment Ratings**: Various companies have been rated based on their expected performance, with **Samsung Electronics**, **SK Hynix**, **Micron**, and **TSMC** receiving "Outperform" ratings, while **UMC** and **KIOXIA** are rated "Underperform" [13][14][15][16][17][19]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is facing significant changes due to tariff implications, with varying impacts on different companies based on their geographic footprint and investment strategies. The need for increased domestic capacity in the US is critical to mitigate the effects of tariffs and ensure competitive positioning in the global market [10][11].

Group 1 - Micron Technology's stock price increased by 5.1% to $117.575 per share, with a trading volume of $1.043 billion and a total market capitalization of $131.581 billion as of August 8 [1] - For the fiscal year ending May 29, 2025, Micron Technology is projected to have total revenue of $26.063 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 50.12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $5.338 billion, reflecting a staggering year-over-year increase of 4997.25% [1] Group 2 - Micron Technology is a global leader in the semiconductor industry, known for its brands Micron, Crucial, and Ballistix, offering a wide range of high-performance memory and storage technologies including DRAM, NAND, NOR Flash, and 3D XPoint memory [2] - The company has a 40-year history of technological leadership, with its memory and storage solutions driving disruptive trends in key market areas such as cloud data centers, networking, mobile, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and autonomous vehicles [2] - Micron's common stock (MU) is traded on the NASDAQ exchange [2]