Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Company**: SK Hynix - **Core Point**: SK Hynix has increased its capital expenditure (capex) guidance for HBM4, driven by NVIDIA's commitment to use significant volumes of Hynix's HBM4 in 2026-27. The forecast for Hynix's HBM wafer capacity has been revised upwards from 190k/210k to 213k/235k, representing a 12% increase. This capacity is expected to account for low-40% of the global total, compared to Samsung's mid-30% share. Hynix's HBM revenue is projected to remain over 60% of the global total due to price premiums and full utilization, particularly favored by US Big Tech [1][1][1]. - **Additional Insights**: Hynix is set to install new equipment in Korea's M15X fab starting from 4Q25, followed by Yongin in 2Q27. R&D for 1,024GB HBM4e (16-hi) has already commenced, likely for use in the Rubin Ultra GPU, which is a significant upgrade from the initial 288GB version [1][1][1]. Hanmi Semiconductor - **Core Point**: Hanmi Semiconductor reported strong preliminary sales for 2Q, amounting to W180 billion, reflecting a 22% quarter-over-quarter and 46% year-over-year increase. The growth is attributed to rising TCB equipment sales to memory chipmakers, including Hynix and Micron. Expectations for new TCB equipment shipments for HBM4 are anticipated to strengthen in late 3Q or 4Q [2][2][2]. - **Earnings Outlook**: Despite bullish earnings estimates, revisions for 2025-26 EPS are minimal, under 1%, based on slightly higher sales assumptions. The Buy rating for Hanmi is supported by strong growth, high margins, and a low P/E ratio compared to peers [2][2][2]. Memory Market Dynamics - **DDR4 Pricing Trends**: The spot price for 8Gb DDR4 has declined by 1%, marking the first correction since March, following a significant rally of over 200%. Despite this, contract prices for DDR4 are expected to rise by more than 10% in 3Q and 4Q, indicating ongoing concerns about supply shortages [3][3][3]. - **Market Forecasts**: Global memory forecasts have been adjusted upward due to Hynix's strong 2Q shipments, with only a 1% increase for 2025E DRAM and NAND sales. HBM forecasts for 2025/26 remain largely unchanged, but Hynix's capex increase for HBM4 presents potential for upward revisions [4][4][4]. HBM Market Outlook - **Sales Projections**: The global HBM market is projected to reach US$35.4 billion in 2025 and US$50.4 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49% from 2024 to 2027. The growth is driven by a limited price cut and robust bit growth, with Hynix's 12-hi HBM3e and HBM4 expected to be key contributors [48][48][48]. - **Market Share**: SK Hynix is expected to maintain a dominant position in the HBM market, with a projected market share of over 60% in 2026-27, while Samsung's share is anticipated to be around 20% [50][50][50]. - **Earnings Outlook**: Hynix's HBM earnings are forecasted to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach US$21.1 billion in 2025 and US$30.1 billion in 2026, reflecting a 54% CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [51][51][51]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights significant developments in the memory semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on SK Hynix's strategic investments and market positioning. The anticipated growth in HBM sales and the strong performance of Hanmi Semiconductor indicate a positive outlook for the sector, despite some pricing corrections in legacy DRAM products.