Tesla Inc. Research Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,604,330 million - **Current Stock Price**: $455.00 (as of December 5, 2025) - **Price Target**: Increased from $410.00 to $425.00, implying a 6% downside from current levels [4][10] Key Points Rating and Valuation - **Rating Change**: Coverage assumed at Equal-weight from Overweight [4][10] - **Valuation Framework**: A full refresh of the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation framework was conducted, leading to a $15/share upside to the prior price target [10] - **Humanoid Business Value**: Updated model includes $60/share of value for Tesla's Humanoid business (Optimus) [10][12] Market Position and Outlook - **Market Leadership**: Tesla is recognized as a global leader in electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI, justifying a premium valuation [4][10] - **Choppy Trading Environment**: Anticipated volatility in TSLA shares over the next 12 months due to downside risks to estimates and priced-in non-auto catalysts [4][10] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for fiscal years ending December 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.66, $1.98, and $2.69 respectively [8] - **Auto Volume Forecast**: MSe auto volume forecast is 13% below consensus for 2026, reflecting a more cautious EV industry outlook [10] Business Segments Autos - **Valuation**: Auto business valued at $55/share, based on long-term DCF with 13% annual unit growth through 2040 [34] - **Market Share**: Expected to maintain 9-11% of the global EV market by 2040 [34] Energy - **Valuation**: Energy business valued at $40/share, with storage deployments expected to compound at an 18% growth rate through 2040 [55] - **Market Position**: Tesla is a leading provider of Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with gross margins improving from 7% in 2022 to 31% in 2025 [50] Robotaxi (Tesla Mobility) - **Market Penetration**: By 2030, Tesla's fleet is expected to capture 20% of the US autonomous vehicle market with 30,000 vehicles [61] - **Valuation**: Tesla Mobility valued at $125/share, with a projected fleet scaling from 1,000 units in 2026 to 5 million by 2040 [66] Humanoids - **Market Potential**: The global humanoid market could reach $7.5 trillion annually by 2050, with Tesla expected to capture significant market share [71][77] - **Valuation**: Humanoids valued at $60/share, reflecting Tesla's leadership in AI and manufacturing [78] Risks and Challenges - **Competition**: Increased competition and margin pressure across all business lines could impact Tesla's market share and profitability [11] - **Regulatory Hurdles**: Challenges in scaling autonomous vehicles in adverse weather conditions and regulatory environments [60] Conclusion - Tesla remains a strong player in the EV and renewable energy markets, with significant growth potential in humanoids and robotaxi services. However, the company faces challenges from competition and market volatility, necessitating a cautious investment approach at this time [4][10][11]

YesMuskonomy (@muskonomy):🚨NEWS: Elon Musk shares new advice on how to get the most reach on X with Grok — “write like you’re texting a smart human you’ve never met.”He says posts with plain links and no context flop because the algorithm has nothing to work with. https://t.co/uMEw7f0Y2t ...

The story of the Muskonomy aka @elonmuskLooking back 🔥 https://t.co/MuZzNMh3hb ...

General Overview - The document refers to "Muskonomy", suggesting a focus on Elon Musk's economic influence or related ventures [1] Potential Industry Focus - Given Elon Musk's involvement, the report likely touches upon the technology, automotive (Tesla), space exploration (SpaceX), or social media (X, formerly Twitter) sectors [1]

General Overview - The document refers to "Muskonomy", suggesting a focus on Elon Musk's economic influence or related ventures [1] Industry Implication - The document's title implies potential analysis of Musk's impact on various industries, including technology, space exploration, or automotive [1]