NASH新药市场

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躺赚40亿欧元?福瑞股份与NASH新药市场关联研究
阿尔法工场研究院· 2025-05-19 14:32
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the recent performance misses of Furuai Co. are due to a misunderstanding of the industry's development pace, with the NASH (Non-Alcoholic Steatohepatitis) market set to explode following the launch of semaglutide in Q3 of this year [1][3]. Group 1: NASH Drug Launch and Fibroscan Demand - The launch of NASH drugs is expected to lead to a tenfold increase in demand for Fibroscan, the core product of EchoSens, a subsidiary of Furuai Co. [3][6]. - There are approximately 300-400 million NASH patients globally, and major pharmaceutical companies are investing in NASH drug development, with multiple new drugs expected to launch between 2025 and 2030 [2][6]. - The demand for Fibroscan will be driven by the need to identify asymptomatic NASH patients and evaluate treatment efficacy, potentially leading to over 100 million annual tests in Europe and the U.S. alone [2][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Fibroscan has no competitors in developed markets like Europe and the U.S., with patent protection extending until 2039, ensuring a long period of market exclusivity [2][15]. - The U.K. has already included Fibroscan in routine health checks, and other European countries are likely to follow suit, further increasing demand [3][15]. Group 3: Revenue Model and Growth Potential - The GO/BOX revenue-sharing model allows EchoSens to provide Fibroscan probes for free, generating income through testing fees, with potential revenues reaching €4 billion if all tests are charged at an average of €40 [13][15]. - The company aims to significantly increase the number of installed Fibroscan units, projecting an addition of 2,400 units by 2025 [13]. Group 4: Clinical Validation and Adoption - Fibroscan is the only NASH diagnostic tool recommended by clinical guidelines in the U.S., which is crucial for gaining acceptance among healthcare providers [15][16]. - Over 90% of NASH drugs in clinical trials are utilizing Fibroscan for efficacy assessment, indicating strong future demand for the technology [16].