Brookfield Renewable (NYSE:BEPC) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 30, 2026 09:00 AM ET Speaker5Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Brookfield Renewable Partners' fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Energy, Utilities & Mining, specifically discussing sectors such as Oil, Gas, Nuclear, Power, and Steel [1] Key Insights and Arguments E&P (Exploration and Production) - **Natural Gas Volatility**: Recent cold weather has led to a sharp increase in natural gas prices, with investors balancing global supply risks against strong long-term US demand [1] - **Investor Sentiment**: While bullish on natural gas prices for most of 2025, investors have recently become cautious due to potential global supply risks by 2028 and warmer winter forecasts [1] - **Storage Levels**: Increased heating degree days (HDDs) from colder weather are expected to draw down storage levels more than previously anticipated, positively impacting natural gas producers [1] - **Valuation**: Companies like EXE and EQT are highlighted for their compelling risk-reward profiles, with expected price targets showing 19% and 20% upside respectively [1] Majors & Refiners - **Economic Outlook**: GDP expectations have surprised positively, positioning large-cap refining stocks favorably for potential economic reacceleration [2][4] - **Refining Performance**: Refining equities outperformed the XLE index significantly in 2025, driven by supply disruptions and increased global demand [4] - **Stock Recommendations**: Valero Energy (VLO) and HF Sinclair (DINO) are recommended due to their strong operational positions and expected capital returns [4] Midstream - **LNG Market Sentiment**: Cheniere (LNG) has seen a modest rebound, but investor focus remains on growth plans and global gas margin exposure [5] - **Growth Catalysts**: Cheniere is expected to execute additional brownfield expansions and deliver significant shareholder returns, with a contracted footprint mitigating global gas price fluctuations [5] Utilities - **Affordability Concerns**: Rising utility bills (up 17% over three years) have become a major focus, particularly in the PJM region, with upcoming elections potentially impacting utility policies [6][7] - **Investor Strategy**: Investors are screening for utilities with lower rates and diversified operations to mitigate election-related risks [7] Energy Services - **International Recovery**: Signs of recovery in international markets are noted, with increased activity expected in regions like the Middle East and Latin America [8] - **Stock Recommendations**: SLB and HAL are highlighted as best positioned to benefit from this recovery [8] Clean Technology - **Nuclear Investment**: CCJ is recommended as a key player in the nuclear sector, with potential upside from new reactor deployments and supportive uranium market dynamics [9][11] - **Valuation Risks**: Despite high valuations, positive catalysts are expected to support growth in the medium term [11] Metals & Mining - **Steel Pricing**: HRC prices have firmed up significantly, driven by favorable trade policies and steady demand from key markets [12][45] - **Stock Preference**: CMC is preferred due to its competitive valuation and strong market position in rebar production [12] Additional Important Insights - **Investor Conversations**: Ongoing discussions with investors highlight concerns about the macroeconomic environment, commodity price volatility, and specific company strategies [27][28][30][31] - **Regulatory Environment**: Changes in utility regulations and potential impacts from state elections are creating uncertainty in the utilities sector [36][37] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of various sectors within the energy and utilities landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The partnership between Vistra and Meta Platforms highlights the integration of artificial intelligence and nuclear power, with Vistra's shares rising significantly following the announcement of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - Vistra has entered into 20-year PPAs to supply over 2,600 megawatts (MW) of zero-carbon energy from its nuclear plants to Meta, supporting the latter's AI expansion [2]. - The energy supply includes 2,176 MW from Vistra's Perry and Davis-Besse plants in Ohio, along with 433 MW from planned upgrades at these facilities and the Beaver Valley plant in Pennsylvania [3]. - Vistra plans to pursue license extensions for all three nuclear plants, potentially extending their operational life by another two decades, as they were previously scheduled for retirement before Vistra's acquisition in 2023 [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, Vistra's stock price increased by over 10%, reaching $15.77, with a market capitalization of $51 billion [4][5]. - Meta's power purchases are set to begin in late 2026, with Vistra aiming to bring additional capacity online through 2034, indicating a long-term commitment to clean energy for AI operations [5].

Core Insights - The nuclear energy stock of Oklo has experienced a significant decline, falling nearly 50% from its all-time high of $193.84 per share in October [6][7] - Analysts have mixed views on Oklo's stock, with some expressing caution after a substantial increase of over 370% in 2025 [1][5] - Oklo is exploring the use of plutonium as a nuclear fuel, which could provide a competitive advantage over rivals [3][5] Company Performance - Oklo's shares dropped by 5.4% in early trading and were down 2.5% by mid-afternoon, with a current price around $100.60 [1][6] - The market capitalization of Oklo is approximately $16 billion [6] - The stock has a 52-week range of $17.14 to $193.84, indicating significant volatility [7] Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee maintains a neutral rating with a price target of $106 per share, suggesting limited upside potential of about 5% from the current price [3][4] - In contrast, analysts from Seaport Global have raised their price target to $150 per share, reflecting optimism regarding Oklo's future prospects [5] Strategic Partnerships - Oklo has signed a $2 billion partnership with newcleo to develop advanced nuclear fuel fabrication facilities in the U.S., aimed at repurposing surplus plutonium [7]

Core Viewpoint - Fluor, a Texas-based construction and engineering company, has experienced significant stock volatility in 2025, but its strategic focus on nuclear power is attracting renewed investor interest [1][2]. Company Performance - Fluor's stock has fluctuated dramatically, with a 40% decline in April, a 20% gain in July, and a subsequent 20% drop in August, leading to a current year-to-date loss of 7% [2]. - The company has a market capitalization of $7 billion, making it the smallest among six Construction & Engineering stocks in the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust, and it remains the only one with a negative performance for the year [3]. - Fluor's stock is approximately 55% below its all-time high of $102 from 2008 and about 20% below its 52-week high of $57.50 reached in late July [4]. Financial Results - Fluor missed revenue estimates for the eighth consecutive quarter, reporting a 17% decline in revenue to $3.3 billion, significantly below the average estimate of $4.2 billion [5]. - Adjusted earnings per share increased by 33% to $0.68, surpassing analysts' expectations of $0.45 [5]. - The company secured $3.3 billion in new contracts in Q3, raising its backlog to $28.2 billion, with 82% of this backlog being reimbursable contracts [6]. Strategic Moves - Fluor plans to monetize its remaining 39% stake in NuScale, a company specializing in small modular reactors, which has seen its stock rise over 600% in the past two years due to increased demand for nuclear energy [7]. - After selling a 15 million-share block of NuScale for $605 million, Fluor aims to liquidate the rest of its stake by the end of Q2 2026, expecting to raise $800 million by February to support a stock-buyback program [8][9]. Market Outlook - Analysts have mixed ratings on Fluor, with five recommending a buy and five suggesting a hold, and an average 12-month price target of $51, indicating a potential upside of about 12% from the current price [13]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings growth of approximately 7% and an 8% increase in revenue for the full year 2026 [13]. - Fluor's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22x places it in the top quintile of its historical range, indicating a higher valuation compared to 80% of the past decade [12].

Core Point - NextEra Energy and Alphabet's Google have signed a power supply deal to assist in the restart of the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa [1] Group 1: Company Overview - NextEra Energy is a U.S. utility company involved in the power supply sector [1] - Alphabet's Google is a technology company that is expanding its involvement in energy supply through partnerships [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The deal signifies a collaboration between the utility and technology sectors, highlighting the increasing intersection of energy supply and tech companies [1] - Restarting the Duane Arnold nuclear plant may contribute to the local energy supply and sustainability efforts in Iowa [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer warns investors in retail-driven stocks to "take profits and get out" [1] Group 1 - Cramer emphasizes the need for investors to act quickly in the current market environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - PG&E Corporation is recognized as one of the best nuclear power dividend stocks to invest in, with a recent price target increase from BMO Capital indicating strong potential for growth [1][3]. Company Overview - PG&E Corporation provides natural gas and electric services to residential and business customers in northern and central California, and owns the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, the only operational nuclear power plant in California [2]. Price Target and Analyst Rating - BMO Capital raised PG&E's price target from $23 to $25, representing an increase of over 50% from the current share price, while maintaining an 'Outperform' rating on the stock [3]. Financial Growth Potential - The company is expected to achieve EPS growth of 10% this year and at least 9% annually from 2026 to 2028, with a target of reaching a 20% dividend payout by 2028 [5]. Investment Thesis - Analysts believe PG&E is trading at a significant discount despite strong EPS and rate base growth, with potential catalysts for multiple expansion including an upgrade to an investment-grade rating and a growing dividend yield [4].

Core Points - The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved subsequent license renewal for Point Beach Nuclear Plant Units 1 and 2, allowing operations to continue through 2050 and 2053 respectively [1][2] - This approval ensures that Wisconsin's only remaining nuclear plant will continue to provide safe, reliable, and low-cost energy for the next three decades [3] Company Overview - NextEra Energy, Inc. is one of the largest electric power and energy infrastructure companies in North America, providing electricity to approximately 12 million people across Florida through its subsidiary Florida Power & Light Company [4] - The company operates a diverse mix of energy sources, including nuclear, renewable energy, and battery storage [7] Economic Impact - Point Beach Nuclear Plant generates enough electricity to power nearly 1 million homes and businesses and supplies approximately 14% of Wisconsin's total electricity [5] - The plant provides approximately 400 permanent, high-paying jobs and contributes over $80,000 annually in community donations [6]

Market Performance - All four major indices posted solid gains, with the Nasdaq Composite leading at almost 2.25% increase [2] - Small cap stocks also performed well, as the Russell 2000 added just under 2.2% [2] - The S&P 500 gained nearly 1.25%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up just over 1% [2] Economic Outlook - Markets are anticipating two more rate cuts from the Fed this year, one in October and another in December [3] - The upcoming economic data will be closely scrutinized, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge [4][3] IPO Market - The IPO market is showing strength, with many companies being oversubscribed, indicating strong investor interest [5] - There is currently $7.7 trillion in money market funds, suggesting significant capital remains on the sidelines, which could benefit upcoming IPOs [5] Company News - Pfizer is in talks to acquire Metsera for $4.9 billion, focusing on weight loss products [6] - Saks is negotiating to sell a 49% stake to Bergdorf Goodman for $1 billion [6] - Oracle will participate in the consortium purchasing TikTok, responsible for security post-acquisition [6] - Micron Technology is set to report earnings soon, with Costco also scheduled to release earnings later in the week [6] - FactSet estimates earnings growth of nearly 8% for the third quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of growth [6] Commodity Market - Gold has reached a record high, with futures up over 1% to $3747 per ounce, driven by bond market volatility [8] - Investors are turning to gold and silver amid uncertainty in the bond market [8] Emerging Trends - Crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced significant selloffs but have recovered in premarket trading [9] - Quantum computing and nuclear power stocks have seen massive gains, attributed to growth in Artificial Intelligence [9]