Group 1 - The core issue affecting Bitcoin (BTC) is a structural tightening of USD liquidity, primarily due to the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance nearing $1 trillion, which is absorbing market liquidity [2][3] - The Federal Reserve has been compelled to restart temporary repurchase operations, injecting nearly $30 billion into the market, marking the first such action since the 2019 repo crisis [2][7][30] - Historical patterns suggest that periods of extreme liquidity tightening often precede market reversals, indicating that BTC may be nearing a bottom as government spending is expected to resume [3][4][29] Group 2 - BTC is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions, and the recent tightening has contributed to its price weakness, especially against a backdrop of rising tech stock indices [4][5] - The SOFR-FDTR spread has reached +30 basis points, indicating that banks are borrowing at higher costs due to liquidity pressures [5][8] - The TGA's increase reflects the Treasury's strategy to prepare for potential government shutdowns, which has led to a reduction in available market dollars [12][23] Group 3 - The relationship between TGA and ON RRP is crucial for understanding liquidity dynamics; an increase in TGA typically signals a withdrawal of liquidity from the market [12][19] - The current liquidity situation is characterized by a significant drop in bank reserves, which is being monitored closely as it directly impacts BTC price movements [9][18] - Predictions suggest that the government may reach a compromise by mid-November, which could lead to a decrease in TGA and a restoration of liquidity, potentially supporting BTC prices [3][34]